Foggy
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Post by Foggy on Aug 30, 2024 0:19:21 GMT
I got a whopping 109 seats wrong: 28 in the SE, 17 in the Eastern region, 12 in the SW, 10 in the NW, 9 in the East Midlands, 8 each in Scotland and the West Midlands, 5 here in Wales, plus 4 apiece in the remaining three regions. London was therefore proportionally my strongest area, especially considering one of the few incorrect guesses there ended up with the narrowest margin in the country.
By category: 51 seats went Labour instead of Tory, 22 LD rather than Con, but conversely 9 Con rather than Lab and 7 Tory instead of Lib Dem. Four seats were gained by Labour instead of staying SNP and three went Gaza indie rather than sticking with team red. The remaining odds and sods included among others Great Yarmouth, Basildon South & Thurrock East, Isle of Wight East and Rochdale.
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Aug 31, 2024 19:18:54 GMT
Further to my post above I'd be interested to know if anyone who did individual seat forecasts did better than getting 69 seats wrong. I'll double check and post details at the weekend, but I think I got 64 seats wrong in different ways. So, I think in my seat by seat predictions, there were 63 errors in total: By region: Wales – 0 – no errors Yorkshire & Humber 2 – LAB instead of IND in Dewsbury & Batley LAB instead of CON in Keighley & Ilkley North East 3 – CON instead of LAB in Hexham, North Northumberland LAB instead of CON – Stockton West North West 4 – LAB instead of IND – Blackburn CON instead of LAB – Congleton, Penrith & Solway, Pendle & Clitheroe London 5- LAB instead of IND – Islington North LAB instead of CON – Croydon South, Harrow East, Chingford & Woodford Green CON instead of LAB – Bexleyheath & Crayford West Midlands 5 – LAB instead of IND – Birmingham Perry Bar CON instead of LAB – Stourbridge, Lichfield, Stoke on Trent South LD instead of CON – Shropshire South East Midlands 7 – LAB instead of IND – Leicester South CON instead of LAB – Mid Derbyshire, Sherwood Forest LAB instead of CON – South Northants, Leicester East CON instead REF – Boston & Skegness LAB instead of REF – Ashfield SCOTLAND 8 - SNP instead of LAB – Alloa & Grangemouth, Livingston, Falkirk, Stirling & Strathallan, Edinburgh SW SNP instead of CON – Gordon & Buchan; West Aberdeenshire & Kincardine SNP instead of LD – Inverness Skye & West Ross-shire SOUTH WEST 8 – CON instead of LAB – North Somerset, SE Cornwall CON instead of LD – Tewkesbury, Tiverton & Minehead, Newton Abbot, Torbay LD instead of CON – Exmouth & Exeter East, LAB instead of CON – Bridgwater SOUTH EAST 10 – LAB instead of CON – Bognor Regis & Littlehampton, Faversham & Mid Kent, Herne Bay & Sandwich, Spelthorne CON instead of LAB – Chatham & Aylesford, Isle of Wight West CON instead of LD – Epsom & Ewell, Mid Sussex, NE Hants, LD instead of CON- Godalming & Ash EAST OF ENGLAND 11 – CON instead of LAB – Suffolk Coastal, NE Herts, NW Cambs, Dunstable & Leighton Buzzard REF instead of CON – Basildon & Billericay LAB instead of LD – St Neots & Mid Cambs, Chelmsford (don’t know what was in my head with these ones) CON instead of LD– Ely & East Cambs, North Norfolk LAB instead of REF – Great Yarmouth CON instead of REF – South Basildon & East Thurrock So by error type, I had: 19 predicted CON but won by LAB 12 predicted LAB but won by CON 9 predicted CON but won by LD 5predicted LAB but won by IND 5 predicted SNP but won by LAB 3 predicted LD but won by CON 2 predicted CON but won by REF 2 predicted LAB but won by REF 2 predicted LAB but won by LD 2 predicted SNP but won by CON 1predicted SNP but won by LD 1 predicted REF but won by CON Despite similar overall numbers, I think I only had 31 errors in common with Andrew_S and 20 in common with nyx
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batman
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Post by batman on Aug 31, 2024 20:04:38 GMT
I will try & dig up my predictions when I have time. I have a feeling that I got somewhat fewer than that wrong, but not quite sure.
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nyx
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Post by nyx on Aug 31, 2024 21:29:12 GMT
Despite similar overall numbers, I think I only had 31 errors in common with Andrew_S and 20 in common with nyx I believe this is the complete list of seats that all three of us all got wrong: Alloa and Grangemouth (went Lab, predicted SNP) Bexleyheath and Crayford (went Lab, predicted Con) Birmingham Perry Barr (went Ind, predicted Lab) Blackburn (went Ind, predicted Lab) Chingford and Woodford Green (went Con, predicted Lab) Falkirk (went Lab, predicted SNP) Godalming and Ash (went Con, predicted LD) Harrow East (went Con, predicted Lab) Keighley and Ilkley (went Con, predicted Lab) Leicester East (went Con, predicted Ind by me and Lab by the other two) Leicester South (went Ind, predicted Lab) North East Hampshire (went LD, predicted Con) South Basildon and East Thurrock (went Reform, predicted Con) Stirling and Strathallan (went Lab, predicted SNP) Stockton West (went Con, predicted Lab) Suffolk Coastal (went Lab, predicted LD by me and Con by the other two) That's 16 in total. I wonder how many people predicted any of them correctly. Judging by the polls on constituency threads... Alloa: 48% got correct Falkirk: 48% got correct Harrow East: 38% got correct Chingford: 24% got correct Godalming: 17% got correct Stockton West: 14% got correct Stirling: 8% got correct Keighley: 8% got correct Leicester East: 8% got correct South Basildon: 0% got correct Birmingham Perry Barr: no poll Blackburn: no poll Suffolk Coastal: no poll Bexleyheath and Crayford: no poll Leicester South: no poll North East Hampshire: no poll
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Post by johnloony on Aug 31, 2024 22:01:19 GMT
My numbers were wildly wrong (I think ai predicted Conservative 215) but I can’t even find my list. No doubt a lot of my individual predictions were way out.
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batman
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Post by batman on Sept 1, 2024 8:32:35 GMT
Despite similar overall numbers, I think I only had 31 errors in common with Andrew_S and 20 in common with nyx I believe this is the complete list of seats that all three of us all got wrong: Alloa and Grangemouth (went Lab, predicted SNP) Bexleyheath and Crayford (went Lab, predicted Con) Birmingham Perry Barr (went Ind, predicted Lab) Blackburn (went Ind, predicted Lab) Chingford and Woodford Green (went Con, predicted Lab) Falkirk (went Lab, predicted SNP) Godalming and Ash (went Con, predicted LD) Harrow East (went Con, predicted Lab) Keighley and Ilkley (went Con, predicted Lab) Leicester East (went Con, predicted Ind by me and Lab by the other two) Leicester South (went Ind, predicted Lab) North East Hampshire (went LD, predicted Con) South Basildon and East Thurrock (went Reform, predicted Con) Stirling and Strathallan (went Lab, predicted SNP) Stockton West (went Con, predicted Lab) Suffolk Coastal (went Lab, predicted LD by me and Con by the other two) That's 16 in total. I wonder how many people predicted any of them correctly. Judging by the polls on constituency threads... Alloa: 48% got correct Falkirk: 48% got correct Harrow East: 38% got correct Chingford: 24% got correct Godalming: 17% got correct Stockton West: 14% got correct Stirling: 8% got correct Keighley: 8% got correct Leicester East: 8% got correct South Basildon: 0% got correct Birmingham Perry Barr: no poll Blackburn: no poll Suffolk Coastal: no poll Bexleyheath and Crayford: no poll Leicester South: no poll North East Hampshire: no poll Out of those, I predicted the following correctly : Alloa & Grangemouth, Falkirk, Stirling & Strathallan. I only got one seat wrong anywhere in Scotland. The others were amongst the ones I did get wrong.
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The Bishop
Labour
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 1, 2024 8:55:35 GMT
Not quite the same thing, but it is notable how many seats that actually changed hands had no forum poll at all.
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batman
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Post by batman on Sept 1, 2024 9:27:17 GMT
SEATS WOT I GOT WRONG 2024
Predicted DUP hold, actual result TUV gain : N Antrim (1)
Predicted Alliance hold, actual result Ind gain : N Down (1) [brbPredicted Lab gain from C, actual result RefUK gain from C : Basildon S & Thurrock E, Ashfield, Great Yarmouth (3)
Predicted Ind gain from Lab, actual result Lab hold : Birmingham Ladywood (1)
Predicted Lab hold, actual result Ind gain from Lab : Blackburn, Birmingham Perry Barr, Leicester S (3)
Predicted Lab hold, actual result C gain from Lab : Leicester E (1)
Predicted LD gain from C, actual result C hold : Godalming & Ash, Farnham & Bordon, S Shropshire (3)
Predicted C hold, actual result LD gain from C : S Devon, Newton Abbot, NE Hampshire, Mid-Sussex, Horsham, Chichester, Epsom & Ewell, Surrey Heath, Maidenhead, Newbury, S Cotwolds, Melksham & Devizes, Tewkesbury, Witney, Bicester & Woodstock, St Neots & Mid-Cambridgeshire (16)
Predicted Lab gain from C, actual result C hold : Exmouth & E Exeter, Chingford & Woodford Green, Staffordshire Moorlands, Keighley & Ilkley, Fylde, Stockton W, Dumfries & Galloway (7)
Predicted C hold, actual result Lab gain from C : SE Cornwall, S Dorset, Poole, W Isle of Wight, Folkestone & Hythe, Ashford, Bexleyheath & Crayford, W Reading & Mid-Berkshire, Forest of Dean, Dunstable & Leighton Buzzard, NW Cambridgeshire, Bury St Edmunds & Stowmarket, Coastal Suffolk, S Norfolk, Lichfield, Mid-Derbyshire, Derbyshire Dales, Congleton, Ribble Valley, N Northumberland (20)
Total cocked up : 56
I am pleased to have got Wales 100% right. Although my predictions for Scotland were also very good, only getting one seat wrong, I think credit should be given to ntyuk1707 without whose insight I'd have got far more wrong. I am often better at predicting general election results than local ones, and this is a good example. I would have got more wrong if I'd finalised my predictions a week in advance, but I made some last-minute changes which kept the total down.
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batman
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Post by batman on Sept 1, 2024 10:49:24 GMT
Actually I got another one wrong. I didn’t predict the Ulster Unionist gain in South Antrim either.
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Sept 1, 2024 11:14:07 GMT
Actually I got another one wrong. I didn’t predict the Ulster Unionist gain in South Antrim either. As the rest of us didn't cover Northern Ireland I'd make that 54 as a point of comparison, which is the best here, so well done.
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nyx
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Post by nyx on Sept 1, 2024 13:34:51 GMT
I predicted NI elsewhere and got Belfast East and Strangford wrong (predicted both for Alliance) as well as North Antrim (predicted for DUP), but got the rest there correct.
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batman
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Post by batman on Sept 1, 2024 19:20:48 GMT
Goodness, actually come to think of it I may have predicted an Alliance gain in Belfast East too, but certainly not Strangford where I never really thought Jim Shannon would be in much trouble if at all.
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nyx
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Post by nyx on Sept 1, 2024 20:31:05 GMT
Goodness, actually come to think of it I may have predicted an Alliance gain in Belfast East too, but certainly not Strangford where I never really thought Jim Shannon would be in much trouble if at all. In Strangford I think I both overestimated the TUV and also tactical voting by nationalist voters. The new Strangford is quite different to the old one- the corresponding Assembly seat will probably consistently have one nationalist member from the next Assembly election. I did think the list of seats from most to least likely to be won by Alliance was Lagan Valley, Belfast East, Strangford, North Down (thanks to Farry being a weak incumbent), which turned out to be the right order for those four overall. Albeit I didn't expect the East Antrim result to come close too.
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Post by Andrew_S on Sept 2, 2024 0:22:40 GMT
Despite similar overall numbers, I think I only had 31 errors in common with Andrew_S and 20 in common with nyx I believe this is the complete list of seats that all three of us all got wrong: Alloa and Grangemouth (went Lab, predicted SNP) Bexleyheath and Crayford (went Lab, predicted Con) Birmingham Perry Barr (went Ind, predicted Lab) Blackburn (went Ind, predicted Lab) Chingford and Woodford Green (went Con, predicted Lab) Falkirk (went Lab, predicted SNP) Godalming and Ash (went Con, predicted LD) Harrow East (went Con, predicted Lab) Keighley and Ilkley (went Con, predicted Lab) Leicester East (went Con, predicted Ind by me and Lab by the other two) Leicester South (went Ind, predicted Lab) North East Hampshire (went LD, predicted Con) South Basildon and East Thurrock (went Reform, predicted Con) Stirling and Strathallan (went Lab, predicted SNP) Stockton West (went Con, predicted Lab) Suffolk Coastal (went Lab, predicted LD by me and Con by the other two) That's 16 in total. I wonder how many people predicted any of them correctly. Judging by the polls on constituency threads... Alloa: 48% got correct Falkirk: 48% got correct Harrow East: 38% got correct Chingford: 24% got correct Godalming: 17% got correct Stockton West: 14% got correct Stirling: 8% got correct Keighley: 8% got correct Leicester East: 8% got correct South Basildon: 0% got correct Birmingham Perry Barr: no poll Blackburn: no poll Suffolk Coastal: no poll Bexleyheath and Crayford: no poll Leicester South: no poll North East Hampshire: no poll Just one very pedantic point: I predicted Lab would win South Basildon. I had it Lab 13500, Ref 12750, Con 12500. Thanks for the list.
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The Bishop
Labour
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 5, 2024 12:24:19 GMT
My numbers were wildly wrong (I think ai predicted Conservative 215) but I can’t even find my list. No doubt a lot of my individual predictions were way out. I would be interested to see them, not least regarding the "Tory hold" that they actually lost by the biggest margin....
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Post by johnloony on Sept 5, 2024 15:29:17 GMT
My numbers were wildly wrong (I think I predicted Conservative 215) but I can’t even find my list. No doubt a lot of my individual predictions were way out. I would be interested to see them, not least regarding the "Tory hold" that they actually lost by the biggest margin.... So would I, but I can’t find my list (which is annoying). I think that when I made my list of predictions (at a very early stage, in early June or late May), I only listed the seats I predicted would change hands from one party to another, with the majority predicted to the nearest thousand. If I predicted a hold, I mostly didn’t even write it down. I am naturally pessimistic and that seemed to make me want to make an overall prediction which was more pessimistic and cautious from the point of view of Labour wanting to win the election. In other words, the basic algorithm of a net swing which I was predicting seemed to produce a lot of unlikely gains, which I was scaling down a bit. So if I do find my list, it will be incomplete and wildly rubbish in some places.
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