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Post by batman on Aug 31, 2024 20:04:38 GMT
I will try & dig up my predictions when I have time. I have a feeling that I got somewhat fewer than that wrong, but not quite sure.
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nyx
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,025
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Post by nyx on Aug 31, 2024 21:29:12 GMT
Despite similar overall numbers, I think I only had 31 errors in common with Andrew_S and 20 in common with nyx I believe this is the complete list of seats that all three of us all got wrong: Alloa and Grangemouth (went Lab, predicted SNP) Bexleyheath and Crayford (went Lab, predicted Con) Birmingham Perry Barr (went Ind, predicted Lab) Blackburn (went Ind, predicted Lab) Chingford and Woodford Green (went Con, predicted Lab) Falkirk (went Lab, predicted SNP) Godalming and Ash (went Con, predicted LD) Harrow East (went Con, predicted Lab) Keighley and Ilkley (went Con, predicted Lab) Leicester East (went Con, predicted Ind by me and Lab by the other two) Leicester South (went Ind, predicted Lab) North East Hampshire (went LD, predicted Con) South Basildon and East Thurrock (went Reform, predicted Con) Stirling and Strathallan (went Lab, predicted SNP) Stockton West (went Con, predicted Lab) Suffolk Coastal (went Lab, predicted LD by me and Con by the other two) That's 16 in total. I wonder how many people predicted any of them correctly. Judging by the polls on constituency threads... Alloa: 48% got correct Falkirk: 48% got correct Harrow East: 38% got correct Chingford: 24% got correct Godalming: 17% got correct Stockton West: 14% got correct Stirling: 8% got correct Keighley: 8% got correct Leicester East: 8% got correct South Basildon: 0% got correct Birmingham Perry Barr: no poll Blackburn: no poll Suffolk Coastal: no poll Bexleyheath and Crayford: no poll Leicester South: no poll North East Hampshire: no poll |
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Post by johnloony on Aug 31, 2024 22:01:19 GMT
My numbers were wildly wrong (I think ai predicted Conservative 215) but I can’t even find my list. No doubt a lot of my individual predictions were way out.
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Post by batman on Sept 1, 2024 8:32:35 GMT
Despite similar overall numbers, I think I only had 31 errors in common with Andrew_S and 20 in common with nyx I believe this is the complete list of seats that all three of us all got wrong: Alloa and Grangemouth (went Lab, predicted SNP) Bexleyheath and Crayford (went Lab, predicted Con) Birmingham Perry Barr (went Ind, predicted Lab) Blackburn (went Ind, predicted Lab) Chingford and Woodford Green (went Con, predicted Lab) Falkirk (went Lab, predicted SNP) Godalming and Ash (went Con, predicted LD) Harrow East (went Con, predicted Lab) Keighley and Ilkley (went Con, predicted Lab) Leicester East (went Con, predicted Ind by me and Lab by the other two) Leicester South (went Ind, predicted Lab) North East Hampshire (went LD, predicted Con) South Basildon and East Thurrock (went Reform, predicted Con) Stirling and Strathallan (went Lab, predicted SNP) Stockton West (went Con, predicted Lab) Suffolk Coastal (went Lab, predicted LD by me and Con by the other two) That's 16 in total. I wonder how many people predicted any of them correctly. Judging by the polls on constituency threads... Alloa: 48% got correct Falkirk: 48% got correct Harrow East: 38% got correct Chingford: 24% got correct Godalming: 17% got correct Stockton West: 14% got correct Stirling: 8% got correct Keighley: 8% got correct Leicester East: 8% got correct South Basildon: 0% got correct Birmingham Perry Barr: no poll Blackburn: no poll Suffolk Coastal: no poll Bexleyheath and Crayford: no poll Leicester South: no poll North East Hampshire: no poll Out of those, I predicted the following correctly : Alloa & Grangemouth, Falkirk, Stirling & Strathallan. I only got one seat wrong anywhere in Scotland. The others were amongst the ones I did get wrong. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 1, 2024 8:55:35 GMT
Not quite the same thing, but it is notable how many seats that actually changed hands had no forum poll at all.
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Post by batman on Sept 1, 2024 9:27:17 GMT
SEATS WOT I GOT WRONG 2024
Predicted DUP hold, actual result TUV gain : N Antrim (1)
Predicted Alliance hold, actual result Ind gain : N Down (1)
[brbPredicted Lab gain from C, actual result RefUK gain from C : Basildon S & Thurrock E, Ashfield, Great Yarmouth (3)
Predicted Ind gain from Lab, actual result Lab hold : Birmingham Ladywood (1)
Predicted Lab hold, actual result Ind gain from Lab : Blackburn, Birmingham Perry Barr, Leicester S (3)
Predicted Lab hold, actual result C gain from Lab : Leicester E (1)
Predicted LD gain from C, actual result C hold : Godalming & Ash, Farnham & Bordon, S Shropshire (3)
Predicted C hold, actual result LD gain from C : S Devon, Newton Abbot, NE Hampshire, Mid-Sussex, Horsham, Chichester, Epsom & Ewell, Surrey Heath, Maidenhead, Newbury, S Cotwolds, Melksham & Devizes, Tewkesbury, Witney, Bicester & Woodstock, St Neots & Mid-Cambridgeshire (16)
Predicted Lab gain from C, actual result C hold : Exmouth & E Exeter, Chingford & Woodford Green, Staffordshire Moorlands, Keighley & Ilkley, Fylde, Stockton W, Dumfries & Galloway (7)
Predicted C hold, actual result Lab gain from C : SE Cornwall, S Dorset, Poole, W Isle of Wight, Folkestone & Hythe, Ashford, Bexleyheath & Crayford, W Reading & Mid-Berkshire, Forest of Dean, Dunstable & Leighton Buzzard, NW Cambridgeshire, Bury St Edmunds & Stowmarket, Coastal Suffolk, S Norfolk, Lichfield, Mid-Derbyshire, Derbyshire Dales, Congleton, Ribble Valley, N Northumberland (20)
Total cocked up : 56
I am pleased to have got Wales 100% right. Although my predictions for Scotland were also very good, only getting one seat wrong, I think credit should be given to ntyuk1707 without whose insight I'd have got far more wrong. I am often better at predicting general election results than local ones, and this is a good example. I would have got more wrong if I'd finalised my predictions a week in advance, but I made some last-minute changes which kept the total down.
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Post by batman on Sept 1, 2024 10:49:24 GMT
Actually I got another one wrong. I didn’t predict the Ulster Unionist gain in South Antrim either.
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,892
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Post by Tony Otim on Sept 1, 2024 11:14:07 GMT
Actually I got another one wrong. I didn’t predict the Ulster Unionist gain in South Antrim either. As the rest of us didn't cover Northern Ireland I'd make that 54 as a point of comparison, which is the best here, so well done. |
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nyx
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,025
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Post by nyx on Sept 1, 2024 13:34:51 GMT
I predicted NI elsewhere and got Belfast East and Strangford wrong (predicted both for Alliance) as well as North Antrim (predicted for DUP), but got the rest there correct.
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Post by batman on Sept 1, 2024 19:20:48 GMT
Goodness, actually come to think of it I may have predicted an Alliance gain in Belfast East too, but certainly not Strangford where I never really thought Jim Shannon would be in much trouble if at all.
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nyx
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,025
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Post by nyx on Sept 1, 2024 20:31:05 GMT
Goodness, actually come to think of it I may have predicted an Alliance gain in Belfast East too, but certainly not Strangford where I never really thought Jim Shannon would be in much trouble if at all. In Strangford I think I both overestimated the TUV and also tactical voting by nationalist voters. The new Strangford is quite different to the old one- the corresponding Assembly seat will probably consistently have one nationalist member from the next Assembly election. I did think the list of seats from most to least likely to be won by Alliance was Lagan Valley, Belfast East, Strangford, North Down (thanks to Farry being a weak incumbent), which turned out to be the right order for those four overall. Albeit I didn't expect the East Antrim result to come close too. |
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Post by Andrew_S on Sept 2, 2024 0:22:40 GMT
Despite similar overall numbers, I think I only had 31 errors in common with Andrew_S and 20 in common with nyx I believe this is the complete list of seats that all three of us all got wrong: Alloa and Grangemouth (went Lab, predicted SNP) Bexleyheath and Crayford (went Lab, predicted Con) Birmingham Perry Barr (went Ind, predicted Lab) Blackburn (went Ind, predicted Lab) Chingford and Woodford Green (went Con, predicted Lab) Falkirk (went Lab, predicted SNP) Godalming and Ash (went Con, predicted LD) Harrow East (went Con, predicted Lab) Keighley and Ilkley (went Con, predicted Lab) Leicester East (went Con, predicted Ind by me and Lab by the other two) Leicester South (went Ind, predicted Lab) North East Hampshire (went LD, predicted Con) South Basildon and East Thurrock (went Reform, predicted Con) Stirling and Strathallan (went Lab, predicted SNP) Stockton West (went Con, predicted Lab) Suffolk Coastal (went Lab, predicted LD by me and Con by the other two) That's 16 in total. I wonder how many people predicted any of them correctly. Judging by the polls on constituency threads... Alloa: 48% got correct Falkirk: 48% got correct Harrow East: 38% got correct Chingford: 24% got correct Godalming: 17% got correct Stockton West: 14% got correct Stirling: 8% got correct Keighley: 8% got correct Leicester East: 8% got correct South Basildon: 0% got correct Birmingham Perry Barr: no poll Blackburn: no poll Suffolk Coastal: no poll Bexleyheath and Crayford: no poll Leicester South: no poll North East Hampshire: no poll Just one very pedantic point: I predicted Lab would win South Basildon. I had it Lab 13500, Ref 12750, Con 12500. Thanks for the list. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 5, 2024 12:24:19 GMT
My numbers were wildly wrong (I think ai predicted Conservative 215) but I can’t even find my list. No doubt a lot of my individual predictions were way out. I would be interested to see them, not least regarding the "Tory hold" that they actually lost by the biggest margin.... |
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Post by johnloony on Sept 5, 2024 15:29:17 GMT
My numbers were wildly wrong (I think I predicted Conservative 215) but I can’t even find my list. No doubt a lot of my individual predictions were way out. I would be interested to see them, not least regarding the "Tory hold" that they actually lost by the biggest margin.... So would I, but I can’t find my list (which is annoying). I think that when I made my list of predictions (at a very early stage, in early June or late May), I only listed the seats I predicted would change hands from one party to another, with the majority predicted to the nearest thousand. If I predicted a hold, I mostly didn’t even write it down. I am naturally pessimistic and that seemed to make me want to make an overall prediction which was more pessimistic and cautious from the point of view of Labour wanting to win the election. In other words, the basic algorithm of a net swing which I was predicting seemed to produce a lot of unlikely gains, which I was scaling down a bit. So if I do find my list, it will be incomplete and wildly rubbish in some places. |
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