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Post by norflondon on Jul 7, 2024 7:52:13 GMT
Thank you for organising. π
Can anyone tell me please where I can find a very detailed breakdown of the general election results including things like the results of the Independents individually...? Thank you
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jdc
Non-Aligned
Posts: 96 
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Post by jdc on Jul 7, 2024 9:24:02 GMT
Thank you for organising. π Can anyone tell me please where I can find a very detailed breakdown of the general election results including things like the results of the Independents individually...? Thank you |
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Post by johnloony on Jul 7, 2024 9:41:16 GMT
***CORRECTED*** General Election 2024 Total Seats Prediction Competition Result ***CORRECTED*** (Actually corrections made make very little difference overall, and none to the podium positions) Congratulations to Andrew_S for winning this tightly fought competition with a score of 30. Following closely behind we have a tie for 2nd between Tony Otim and Adrian on 36. On their heals on 38 in 4th is another tie between Old Fashioned Leftie and kitesurfer Well done to all 5 for such impressive low scores.
Seat totals were as follows
Conservatives 121
Labour 411
SNP 9
Liberal Democrats 72
Plaid Cymru 4
Green 4
Reform 5
Workers Party 0
SDP 0
OTHERS 5
631
Final Scores after penalties were ... Thank you to all who took part Apologies for the initial results errors, and thank you to those who pointed them out. BDT
PS: I really must get better staff to run these competitions!
I blame the Labour government. Thank you for doing the corrections anyway : ) |
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Post by johnloony on Jul 7, 2024 9:41:35 GMT
I hadn't realised sky had included the speaker in Labour's total, the twits. I had extrapolated the Independent number from that as I couldn't find a list of them. I have deleted results and will repost later in the morning. The main broadcasters all always do that anyway. The other clue was that none of them mentioned or listed "Speaker" separately. |
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Post by johnloony on Jul 7, 2024 10:28:41 GMT
Thank you for organising. π Can anyone tell me please where I can find a very detailed breakdown of the general election results including things like the results of the Independents individually...? Thank you That is not exactly precise because it has only one column for "Independent" (i.e. the biggest Independent in each constituency) and then multiple columns for "Others" (which include some other Independents). It also says that only 6% of results have been double-checked, e.g. there is an error (mentioned elsewhere by somebody in whichever thread) in Liverpool Riverside in that they have swapped the numbers for Conservative and Reform. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,925
Member is Online
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 7, 2024 10:31:00 GMT
I hadn't realised sky had included the speaker in Labour's total, the twits. I had extrapolated the Independent number from that as I couldn't find a list of them. I have deleted results and will repost later in the morning. The main broadcasters all always do that anyway. The other clue was that none of them mentioned or listed "Speaker" separately. I know they do, the point is that they shouldn't. |
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Post by johnloony on Jul 7, 2024 10:32:35 GMT
The main broadcasters all always do that anyway. The other clue was that none of them mentioned or listed "Speaker" separately. I know they do, the point is that they shouldn't. I agree that they shouldn't. The point is not that they shouldn't. The point is that they do, so we should be aware of that fact when doing calculations. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,925
Member is Online
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 7, 2024 10:34:58 GMT
Its especially silly given that they explicitly stand as "Speaker Seeking Re-Election" with no mention of their previous party label.
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Jul 7, 2024 11:43:49 GMT
***CORRECTED*** General Election 2024 Total Seats Prediction Competition Result ***CORRECTED*** (Actually corrections made make very little difference overall, and none to the podium positions) Congratulations to Andrew_S for winning this tightly fought competition with a score of 30. Following closely behind we have a tie for 2nd between Tony Otim and Adrian on 36. On their heals on 38 in 4th is another tie between Old Fashioned Leftie and kitesurfer Well done to all 5 for such impressive low scores.
Seat totals were as follows
Conservatives 121
Labour 411
SNP 9
Liberal Democrats 72
Plaid Cymru 4
Green 4
Reform 5
Workers Party 0
SDP 0
OTHERS 5
631
Final Scores after penalties were ... Thank you to all who took part Apologies for the initial results errors, and thank you to those who pointed them out. BDT
PS: I really must get better staff to run these competitions!
I blame the Labour government. Thank you for doing the corrections anyway : ) Thanks for your thanks. |
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Post by tiberius on Jul 11, 2024 22:25:58 GMT
Thank you for all the work you did calculating. Finishing in the top 20 was not what I expected.
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Post by Andrew_S on Jul 20, 2024 23:36:39 GMT
Congrats to Andrew on his win. Overall, I'm not too displeased with my score - I slightly underestimated Reform and thought the Lib Dems would miss a few more of their targets, whilst completely underestimating some of the indies... I also underestimated how low the SNP would crash, meaning my Scottish predictions were amongst my worst... Thanks Tony, belatedly. |
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Post by Andrew_S on Aug 27, 2024 23:44:58 GMT
I got 69 seats wrong when looking at my individual constituency predictions, which seems like a pretty poor effort tbh. It was just very fortunate that most of the wrong predictions cancelled each other out in terms of forecasting the overall seat numbers. These are the wrong forecasts I made: Seats predicted Con, won by Lab (16) -> Bracknell, Lichfield, Isle of Wight W, Bury St Edmunds, Hertford, Aldershot, Suffolk Coastal, Bexleyheath, Chatham, Ashford, NE Herts, NW Cambs, Congleton, Derbyshire Dales, SW Norfolk, Poole Seats predicted Lab, won by Con (14) -> Huntingdon, Leicester E, Chingford, Staffs Moorlands, Newark, Harborough, Harwich, Spelthorne, Solihull W, Croydon S, Wrekin, Stockton W, Harrow E, Cen Devon Seats predicted Con, won by LD (8) -> NE Hants, Chichester, Yeovil, Tiverton, Tewkesbury, Witney, Epsom, Maidenhead Seats predicted LD, won by Con (4) -> Romsey, Godalming, E Hants, Farnham Seats predicted RefUK, won by Con (1) -> Castle Point Seats predicted Con, won by RefUK (1) -> Boston Seats predicted Con, won by Grn (1) -> N Herefordshire Seats predicted Grn, won by Con (1) -> Isle of Wight E Seats predicted SNP, won by Lab (9) -> E Renfrewshire, Falkirk, N Ayrshire, Stirling, Alloa, Glasgow S, Cen Ayrshire, Glasgow W, Edinburgh SW Seats predicted LD, won by Lab (3) -> Aylesbury, Montgomeryshire, Sheffield Hallam Seats predicted Lab, won by PC (1) -> Ynys MΓ΄n Seats predicted Lab, won by Ind (5) -> Islington N, Leicester S, Dewsbury, Blackburn, B'ham Perry Barr Seats predicted Lab, won by RefUK (2) -> Great Yarmouth, S Basildon Seats predicted Con, won by SNP (1) -> Aberdeenshire N Seats predicted SNP, won by LD (1) -> Inverness Seats predicted Lab, won by Grn (1) -> Bristol C docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1oR43qMm3flWhXKZlrDvPATyk2deWlhEiRXzURgF8Fy0/edit?gid=0#gid=0 |
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Post by Andrew_S on Aug 29, 2024 12:19:14 GMT
Further to my post above I'd be interested to know if anyone who did individual seat forecasts did better than getting 69 seats wrong. (This is just GB, I didn't do forecasts for Northern Ireland).
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nodealbrexiteer
Forum Regular
non aligned favour no deal brexit!
Posts: 4,450
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Aug 29, 2024 12:22:47 GMT
I got 69 seats wrong when looking at my individual constituency predictions, which seems like a pretty poor effort tbh. It was just very fortunate that most of the wrong predictions cancelled each other out in terms of forecasting the overall seat numbers. These are the wrong forecasts I made: Seats predicted Con, won by Lab (16) -> Bracknell, Lichfield, Isle of Wight W, Bury St Edmunds, Hertford, Aldershot, Suffolk Coastal, Bexleyheath, Chatham, Ashford, NE Herts, NW Cambs, Congleton, Derbyshire Dales, SW Norfolk, Poole Seats predicted Lab, won by Con (14) -> Huntingdon, Leicester E, Chingford, Staffs Moorlands, Newark, Harborough, Harwich, Spelthorne, Solihull W, Croydon S, Wrekin, Stockton W, Harrow E, Cen Devon Seats predicted Con, won by LD (8) -> NE Hants, Chichester, Yeovil, Tiverton, Tewkesbury, Witney, Epsom, Maidenhead Seats predicted LD, won by Con (4) -> Romsey, Godalming, E Hants, Farnham Seats predicted RefUK, won by Con (1) -> Castle Point Seats predicted Con, won by RefUK (1) -> Boston Seats predicted Con, won by Grn (1) -> N Herefordshire Seats predicted Grn, won by Con (1) -> Isle of Wight E Seats predicted SNP, won by Lab (9) -> E Renfrewshire, Falkirk, N Ayrshire, Stirling, Alloa, Glasgow S, Cen Ayrshire, Glasgow W, Edinburgh SW Seats predicted LD, won by Lab (3) -> Aylesbury, Montgomeryshire, Sheffield Hallam Seats predicted Lab, won by PC (1) -> Ynys MΓ΄n Seats predicted Lab, won by Ind (5) -> Islington N, Leicester S, Dewsbury, Blackburn, B'ham Perry Barr Seats predicted Lab, won by RefUK (2) -> Great Yarmouth, S Basildon Seats predicted Con, won by SNP (1) -> Aberdeenshire N Seats predicted SNP, won by LD (1) -> Inverness Seats predicted Lab, won by Grn (1) -> Bristol C docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1oR43qMm3flWhXKZlrDvPATyk2deWlhEiRXzURgF8Fy0/edit?gid=0#gid=0one short of 28000 posts! |
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nyx
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Post by nyx on Aug 29, 2024 18:41:47 GMT
Further to my post above I'd be interested to know if anyone who did individual seat forecasts did better than getting 69 seats wrong. My last seat-by-seat prediction was on the 2nd of July here: vote-2012.proboards.com/post/1516245/threadimgur.com/aimKb9wIt looks like I "only" got 66 seats wrong in it. My seat-by-seat prediction didn't count for this competition, as on the day of the election I made a different seat-total prediction (which turned out to be far more egregiously incorrect). Errors: Wales: 1) Ynys Mon PC (not Lab) Scotland: 2) Aberdeenshire North SNP (not Con) 3-4) Gordon; West Aberdeenshire Con (not SNP) 5-10) Stirling; Kirkcaldy; Alloa; Falkirk; Cumbernauld; East Kilbride Lab (not SNP) 11) Dumfries Con (not Lab) Northeast: 12) Stockton West Con (not Lab) Yorkshire+Humber: 13) Keighley Con (not Lab) 14) Grimsby Lab (not Rfm) Northwest: 15) Fylde Con (not Lab) 16) Blackburn Ind (not Lab) 17) Rochdale Lab (not WPGB) 18) Tatton Con (not Lab) West Mids: 19-23) Wrekin; Staffs Moorlands; Sutton Coldfield; Meriden; Solihull West Con (not Lab) 24) S Shrops Con (not LD) 25) Birmingham Perry Barr Ind (not Lab) 26) Birmingham Ladywood Lab (not Ind) East Mids: 27) Mid Leics Con (not Lab) 28-29) Bosworth; Harborough Con (not LD) 30) Leicester East Con (not Ind) 31) Leicester South Ind (not Lab) East of England: 32-37) Huntingdon; W Suffolk; S Suffolk; Harwich; Hertsmere; Basildon Con (not Lab) 38-39) Aylesbury; Suffolk Coastal Lab (not LD) 40) Castle Point Con (not Rfm) 41) S Basildon Rfm (not Lab) London: 42-43) Bexleyheath; Chelsea Lab (not Con) 44-45) Harrow E; Chingford Con (not Lab) South East: 46-51) Mid Bucks; E Grinstead; Farnham; Godalming; Romsey; Windsor Con (not LD) 52-54) Reigate; Faversham; Herne Bay Con (not Lab) 55) Wight East Con (not Grn) 56) NE Hants LD (not Con) 57) Havant Con (not Rfm) South West: 58-59) Forest of Dean; SE Cornwall Lab (not Con) 60-61) Exmouth; N Cotswolds Con (not LD) 62-64) Central Devon; SW Devon; Salisbury Con (not Lab) 65-66) Poole; Filton Lab (not LD) Note: I believe I'd erroneously labelled Filton as LD thanks to mistaking it for Thornbury and Yate. Or, to use the same format as you: Seats predicted Con, won by Lab (4) -> Bexleyheath, Chelsea, Forest of Dean, SE Cornwall Seats predicted Lab, won by Con (25) -> Dumfries, Stockton W, Keighley, Fylde, Tatton, Wrekin, Staffs Moorlands, Sutton Coldfield, Meriden, Solihull West, Mid Leics, Huntingdon, W Suffolk, S Suffolk, Harwich, Hertsmere, Basildon, Harrow E, Chingford, Reigate, Faversham, Herne Bay, Central Devon, SW Devon, Salisbury Seats predicted Con, won by LD (1) -> NE Hants Seats predicted LD, won by Con (11) -> S Shrops, Bosworth, Harborough, Mid Bucks, E Grinstead, Farnham, Godalming, Romsey, Windsor, Exmouth, N Cotswolds Seats predicted RefUK, won by Con (2) -> Castle Point, Havant Seats predicted Con, won by RefUK (0) Seats predicted Con, won by Grn (0) Seats predicted Grn, won by Con (1) -> Isle of Wight E Seats predicted SNP, won by Lab (6) -> Stirling, Kirkcaldy, Alloa, Falkirk, Cumbernauld, East Kilbride Seats predicted LD, won by Lab (4) -> Aylesbury, Suffolk Coastal, Poole, Filton Seats predicted Lab, won by PC (1) -> Ynys MΓ΄n Seats predicted Lab, won by Ind (3) -> Leicester S, Blackburn, B'ham Perry Barr Seats predicted Lab, won by RefUK (1) -> S Basildon Seats predicted Con, won by SNP (1) -> Aberdeenshire N Seats predicted SNP, won by LD (0) Seats predicted Lab, won by Grn (0) Seats predicted Ind/WPGB, won by Lab (2) -> B'ham Ladywood, Rochdale Seats predicted Ind, won by Con (1) -> Leicester East Seats predicted SNP, won by Con (2) -> Gordon, West Aberdeenshire Seats predicted RefUK, won by Lab (1) -> Grimsby |
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Post by manchesterman on Aug 29, 2024 19:00:17 GMT
Further to my post above I'd be interested to know if anyone who did individual seat forecasts did better than getting 69 seats wrong. I did...but Im not sure where/whether I saved them somewhere! (Weekend task)  |
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,901
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Post by Tony Otim on Aug 29, 2024 22:32:20 GMT
Further to my post above I'd be interested to know if anyone who did individual seat forecasts did better than getting 69 seats wrong. I'll double check and post details at the weekend, but I think I got 64 seats wrong in different ways. |
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Post by uthacalthing on Aug 29, 2024 22:37:29 GMT
Further to my post above I'd be interested to know if anyone who did individual seat forecasts did better than getting 69 seats wrong. I'll double check and post details at the weekend, but I think I got 64 seats wrong in different ways. which weekend? |
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Foggy
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Yn Ennill Yma
Posts: 6,135
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Post by Foggy on Aug 30, 2024 0:19:21 GMT
I got a whopping 109 seats wrong: 28 in the SE, 17 in the Eastern region, 12 in the SW, 10 in the NW, 9 in the East Midlands, 8 each in Scotland and the West Midlands, 5 here in Wales, plus 4 apiece in the remaining three regions. London was therefore proportionally my strongest area, especially considering one of the few incorrect guesses there ended up with the narrowest margin in the country.
By category: 51 seats went Labour instead of Tory, 22 LD rather than Con, but conversely 9 Con rather than Lab and 7 Tory instead of Lib Dem. Four seats were gained by Labour instead of staying SNP and three went Gaza indie rather than sticking with team red. The remaining odds and sods included among others Great Yarmouth, Basildon South & Thurrock East, Isle of Wight East and Rochdale.
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,901
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Post by Tony Otim on Aug 31, 2024 19:18:54 GMT
Further to my post above I'd be interested to know if anyone who did individual seat forecasts did better than getting 69 seats wrong. I'll double check and post details at the weekend, but I think I got 64 seats wrong in different ways. So, I think in my seat by seat predictions, there were 63 errors in total: By region: Wales β 0 β no errors Yorkshire & Humber 2 β LAB instead of IND in Dewsbury & Batley LAB instead of CON in Keighley & Ilkley North East 3 β CON instead of LAB in Hexham, North Northumberland LAB instead of CON β Stockton West North West 4 β LAB instead of IND β Blackburn CON instead of LAB β Congleton, Penrith & Solway, Pendle & Clitheroe London 5- LAB instead of IND β Islington North LAB instead of CON β Croydon South, Harrow East, Chingford & Woodford Green CON instead of LAB β Bexleyheath & Crayford West Midlands 5 β LAB instead of IND β Birmingham Perry Bar CON instead of LAB β Stourbridge, Lichfield, Stoke on Trent South LD instead of CON β Shropshire South East Midlands 7 β LAB instead of IND β Leicester South CON instead of LAB β Mid Derbyshire, Sherwood Forest LAB instead of CON β South Northants, Leicester East CON instead REF β Boston & Skegness LAB instead of REF β Ashfield SCOTLAND 8 - SNP instead of LAB β Alloa & Grangemouth, Livingston, Falkirk, Stirling & Strathallan, Edinburgh SW SNP instead of CON β Gordon & Buchan; West Aberdeenshire & Kincardine SNP instead of LD β Inverness Skye & West Ross-shire SOUTH WEST 8 β CON instead of LAB β North Somerset, SE Cornwall CON instead of LD β Tewkesbury, Tiverton & Minehead, Newton Abbot, Torbay LD instead of CON β Exmouth & Exeter East, LAB instead of CON β Bridgwater SOUTH EAST 10 β LAB instead of CON β Bognor Regis & Littlehampton, Faversham & Mid Kent, Herne Bay & Sandwich, Spelthorne CON instead of LAB β Chatham & Aylesford, Isle of Wight West CON instead of LD β Epsom & Ewell, Mid Sussex, NE Hants, LD instead of CON- Godalming & Ash EAST OF ENGLAND 11 β CON instead of LAB β Suffolk Coastal, NE Herts, NW Cambs, Dunstable & Leighton Buzzard REF instead of CON β Basildon & Billericay LAB instead of LD β St Neots & Mid Cambs, Chelmsford (donβt know what was in my head with these ones) CON instead of LDβ Ely & East Cambs, North Norfolk LAB instead of REF β Great Yarmouth CON instead of REF β South Basildon & East Thurrock So by error type, I had: 19 predicted CON but won by LAB 12 predicted LAB but won by CON 9 predicted CON but won by LD 5predicted LAB but won by IND 5 predicted SNP but won by LAB 3 predicted LD but won by CON 2 predicted CON but won by REF 2 predicted LAB but won by REF 2 predicted LAB but won by LD 2 predicted SNP but won by CON 1predicted SNP but won by LD 1 predicted REF but won by CON Despite similar overall numbers, I think I only had 31 errors in common with Andrew_S and 20 in common with nyx |
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