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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Jul 4, 2024 20:14:42 GMT
Final Call
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Post by manchesterman on Jul 4, 2024 20:24:28 GMT
Do you mean "Last Orders"
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Post by mrpastelito on Jul 4, 2024 20:32:03 GMT
Alright then - it's not something I'm particularly good at, but nevermind:
Conservatives 119 Labour 426 SNP 23 Liberal Democrats 56 Plaid Cymru 3 Green 0 Reform 2 Workers 0 SDP 0 Others 2
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Post by norflondon on Jul 4, 2024 20:58:11 GMT
FINAL at 21.58
Conservative 119 Labour 418 SNP 18 Liberal Democrats 56 Plaid Cymru 2 Green 2 Reform 15 Workers Party of Britain 0 SDP 0 OTHERS 1
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Jul 4, 2024 21:00:36 GMT
Competition Closed
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Post by norflondon on Jul 4, 2024 21:04:51 GMT
Exit poll
Conservative 131 Labour 410 SNP 10 Liberal Democrats 61 Plaid Cymru 4 Green 2 Reform 13 Workers Party of Britain 0 SDP 0 OTHERS 1
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Jul 4, 2024 21:06:25 GMT
55 Predictions have been accepted into the competition
Prediction Range Conservatives range 32 by nyx to265 by yellowfox a range of 233 Labour range 303 by yellowfox to 478 by greenhert a range of 175 SNP range 5 by yellowfox to 33 by doktorb a range of 28 Liberal Democrats range 17 by islington to 84 by nyx a range of 67 Plaid Cymru range 0 by jamesmanc to 4 by 17 predictors a range of 4 Green range 0 by 5 predictors to 7 by foggy a range of 5 Reform range 0 by 9 predictors to 56 by nyx a range of 56 Workers Party range 0 by 40 predictors to 1 by 15 predictors a range of 1 SDP range 0 by all predictors a range of 0 OTHERS range 0 by 21 predictors to 6 by nyx a range of 6
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Post by gwynthegriff on Jul 4, 2024 21:10:20 GMT
FINAL at 21.58 Conservative 119 Labour 418 SNP 18 Liberal Democrats 56 Plaid Cymru 2 Green 2 Reform 15 Workers Party of Britain 0 SDP 0 OTHERS 1 That looks a good shout to me! Well done.
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Post by islington on Jul 6, 2024 16:01:57 GMT
55 Predictions have been accepted into the competition
Prediction Range Conservatives range 32 by nyx to265 by yellowfox a range of 233 Labour range 303 by yellowfox to 478 by greenhert a range of 175 SNP range 5 by yellowfox to 33 by doktorb a range of 28 Liberal Democrats range 17 by islington to 84 by nyx a range of 67 Plaid Cymru range 0 by jamesmanc to 4 by 17 predictors a range of 4 Green range 0 by 5 predictors to 7 by foggy a range of 5 Reform range 0 by 9 predictors to 56 by nyx a range of 56 Workers Party range 0 by 40 predictors to 1 by 15 predictors a range of 1 SDP range 0 by all predictors a range of 0 OTHERS range 0 by 21 predictors to 6 by nyx a range of 6
So... Who won? (Not I, obviously. Unless there's a booby prize.)
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johnloony
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Post by johnloony on Jul 6, 2024 18:52:11 GMT
General Election 2024 Total Seats Prediction Competition Result
Well done to all 6 for such impressive low scores. Seat totals were as follows Conservatives 121 Labour 412 SNP 9 Liberal Democrats 72 Plaid Cymru 4 Green 4 Reform 5 Workers Party 0 SDP 0 OTHERS 4 631 Where did you get the “Others 4” from? Which of the 5 Independents are you not counting? And I think you have included the Speaker in your total, even though you said at the beginning that he doesn’t count as part of the bompetition.
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Tony Otim
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Suffering from Brexistential Despair
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Post by Tony Otim on Jul 6, 2024 18:55:14 GMT
Congrats to Andrew on his win.
Overall, I'm not too displeased with my score - I slightly underestimated Reform and thought the Lib Dems would miss a few more of their targets, whilst completely underestimating some of the indies... I also underestimated how low the SNP would crash, meaning my Scottish predictions were amongst my worst...
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Jul 6, 2024 18:59:12 GMT
General Election 2024 Total Seats Prediction Competition Result
Well done to all 6 for such impressive low scores. Seat totals were as follows Conservatives 121 Labour 412 SNP 9 Liberal Democrats 72 Plaid Cymru 4 Green 4 Reform 5 Workers Party 0 SDP 0 OTHERS 4 631 Where did you get the “Others 4” from? Which of the 5 Independents are you not counting? And I think you have included the Speaker in your total, even though you said at the beginning that he doesn’t count as part of the bompetition.
The Northern Ireland one.
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johnloony
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Post by johnloony on Jul 6, 2024 19:05:20 GMT
Where did you get the “Others 4” from? Which of the 5 Independents are you not counting? And I think you have included the Speaker in your total, even though you said at the beginning that he doesn’t count as part of the bompetition. The Northern Ireland one.
We already know that you are not counting the Northern Ireland Independent, because you said in the first place that Northern Ireland wasn’t included in the competition. But that is irrelevant to my question. I did not ask you Where do you get the “Others 5” from? Which of the 6 Independents are you not counting? The question I asked you was Where do you get the “Others 4” from? Which of the 5 Independents are you not counting? P.S.And you have also not explained why you have included the Speaker within Labour’s total, even though you said he wasn’t included.
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Post by No Offence Alan on Jul 6, 2024 19:16:48 GMT
Where did you get the “Others 4” from? Which of the 5 Independents are you not counting? And I think you have included the Speaker in your total, even though you said at the beginning that he doesn’t count as part of the bompetition. The Northern Ireland one.
Islington North, Birmingham Perry Barr, Blackburn, Leicester South, Dewsbury & Batley - 5?
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Post by norflondon on Jul 6, 2024 19:27:45 GMT
Congratulations andrew_s . Pleased with mine, only 50 out. I was closest Con total with 119 along with @mrpastello and @ports who said 123. Tony otim was closest Lab with 411. I'm just wondering how the scores are done. Is it solely 1pt for every seat one is out by? e.g batman said Lab 402 Con 144 LD 64 which just those three gives 41 out but he's been given a final score of 36...?
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johnloony
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Post by johnloony on Jul 6, 2024 21:24:41 GMT
Congratulations andrew_s . Pleased with mine, only 50 out. I was closest Con total with 119 along with @mrpastello and @ports who said 123. Tony otim was closest Lab with 411. I'm just wondering how the scores are done. Is it solely 1pt for every seat one is out by? e.g batman said Lab 402 Con 144 LD 64 which just those three gives 41 out but he's been given a final score of 36...? Those three figures make an error of 40 not 41 411 - 402 = 9 144 - 121 = 23 72 - 64 = 8 9 + 23 + 8 = 40
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Post by manchesterman on Jul 6, 2024 21:39:26 GMT
Many thanks to Defenestrated Fipplebox for organising and putting in all the effort required to run this competition. Congrats to the winners. I'm happy enough with a Top 10 finish
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johnloony
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Post by johnloony on Jul 6, 2024 21:56:01 GMT
Congratulations andrew _s . Pleased with mine, only 50 out. I was closest Con total with 119 along with @mrpastello and @ports who said 123. Tony otim was closest Lab with 411. I'm just wondering how the scores are done. Is it solely 1pt for every seat one is out by? e.g batman said Lab 402 Con 144 LD 64 which just those three gives 41 out but he's been given a final score of 36...? Yes it is a point a seat. I missed batman's revised prediction, result amended to reflect this prediction, meaning batman drops down from joint 2nd to 6th. Apologies to batman for the mistake, not surprised something slipped through, shouldn't have happened though, unfortunately your original prediction was the more accurate of the two. I notice that you have edited your post above to correct the error about batman’s prediction, but you still haven’t edited it to correct the two other errors which I have already pointed out: namely, that Labour got 411 (not 412) because you specifically said at the start of the thread that the Speaker’s seat doesn’t count towards the total of 631, and the total for “Others” (i.e. the Independent MPs) is 5 not 4. I guess that an extra error of +1 or -1 for each of the predictions is not enough to make a difference to who won the competition, but that’s not the point.
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Post by norflondon on Jul 6, 2024 22:22:12 GMT
Congratulations andrew_s . Pleased with mine, only 50 out. I was closest Con total with 119 along with @mrpastello and @ports who said 123. Tony otim was closest Lab with 411. I'm just wondering how the scores are done. Is it solely 1pt for every seat one is out by? e.g batman said Lab 402 Con 144 LD 64 which just those three gives 41 out but he's been given a final score of 36...? Those three figures make an error of 40 not 41 411 - 402 = 9 144 - 121 = 23 72 - 64 = 8 9 + 23 + 8 = 40 It's 41 not 40. See the organisers posts above. He is using 412 Labour not 411
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johnloony
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Post by johnloony on Jul 6, 2024 23:44:34 GMT
Those three figures make an error of 40 not 41 411 - 402 = 9 144 - 121 = 23 72 - 64 = 8 9 + 23 + 8 = 40 It's 41 not 40. See the organisers posts above. He is using 412 Labour not 411 See the original post at the start of the thread. He specifically said that the Speaker would not be included in the prediction competition, and that the competition would only relate to the 631 constituencies which are (a) not in Northern Ireland (b) not the Speaker’s. Therefore the correct figure is the number of Labour MPs (not including the Speaker), i.e. 411.
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