General Election 2024 Total Seats Prediction Competition.

[mrpastelito]

Alright then - it's not something I'm particularly good at, but nevermind:

Conservatives 119
Labour 426
SNP 23
Liberal Democrats 56
Plaid Cymru 3
Green 0
Reform 2
Workers 0
SDP 0
Others 2

[norflondon]

FINAL at 21.58

Conservative 119
Labour 418
SNP 18
Liberal Democrats 56
Plaid Cymru 2
Green 2
Reform 15
Workers Party of Britain 0
SDP 0
OTHERS 1

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

Competition Closed

[norflondon]

Exit poll

Conservative 131
Labour 410
SNP 10
Liberal Democrats 61
Plaid Cymru 4
Green 2
Reform 13
Workers Party of Britain 0
SDP 0
OTHERS 1

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

55 Predictions have been accepted into the competition

Prediction Range

Conservatives range 32 by nyx to265 by yellowfox a range of 233
Labour range 303 by yellowfox to 478 by greenhert a range of 175
SNP range 5 by yellowfox to 33 by doktorb a range of 28
Liberal Democrats range 17 by islington to 84 by nyx a range of 67
Plaid Cymru range 0 by jamesmanc to 4 by 17 predictors a range of 4
Green range 0 by 5 predictors to 7 by foggy a range of 5
Reform range 0 by 9 predictors to 56 by nyx a range of 56
Workers Party range 0 by 40 predictors to 1 by 15 predictors a range of 1
SDP range 0 by all predictors a range of 0
OTHERS range 0 by 21 predictors to 6 by nyx a range of 6

[gwynthegriff]

Jul 4, 2024 20:58:11 GMT norflondon said:

FINAL at 21.58

Conservative 119
Labour 418
SNP 18
Liberal Democrats 56
Plaid Cymru 2
Green 2
Reform 15
Workers Party of Britain 0
SDP 0
OTHERS 1

That looks a good shout to me!

Well done.

[islington]

Jul 4, 2024 21:06:25 GMT Defenestrated Fipplebox said:

55 Predictions have been accepted into the competition

Prediction Range

Conservatives range 32 by nyx to265 by yellowfox a range of 233
Labour range 303 by yellowfox to 478 by greenhert a range of 175
SNP range 5 by yellowfox to 33 by doktorb a range of 28
Liberal Democrats range 17 by islington to 84 by nyx a range of 67
Plaid Cymru range 0 by jamesmanc to 4 by 17 predictors a range of 4
Green range 0 by 5 predictors to 7 by foggy a range of 5
Reform range 0 by 9 predictors to 56 by nyx a range of 56
Workers Party range 0 by 40 predictors to 1 by 15 predictors a range of 1
SDP range 0 by all predictors a range of 0
OTHERS range 0 by 21 predictors to 6 by nyx a range of 6

So... Who won?

(Not I, obviously. Unless there's a booby prize.)

[johnloony]

Jul 6, 2024 18:27:12 GMT Defenestrated Fipplebox said:

General Election 2024 Total Seats Prediction Competition Result

Congratulations to Andrew_S for winning this tightly fought competition with a score of 30. Following closely behind we have a 3 way tie for 2nd between batman Tony Otim and Adrian on 36. On their heals on 38 in 5th is another tie between Old Fashioned Leftie and kitesurfer

Well done to all 6 for such impressive low scores.

Seat totals were as follows

Conservatives 121
Labour 412
SNP 9
Liberal Democrats 72
Plaid Cymru 4
Green 4
Reform 5
Workers Party 0
SDP 0
OTHERS 4
631

Where did you get the “Others 4” from? Which of the 5 Independents are you not counting?
And I think you have included the Speaker in your total, even though you said at the beginning that he doesn’t count as part of the bompetition.

[Tony Otim]

Congrats to Andrew on his win.

Overall, I'm not too displeased with my score - I slightly underestimated Reform and thought the Lib Dems would miss a few more of their targets, whilst completely underestimating some of the indies... I also underestimated how low the SNP would crash, meaning my Scottish predictions were amongst my worst...

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

Jul 6, 2024 18:52:11 GMT johnloony said:

Jul 6, 2024 18:27:12 GMT Defenestrated Fipplebox said:

General Election 2024 Total Seats Prediction Competition Result

Congratulations to Andrew_S for winning this tightly fought competition with a score of 30. Following closely behind we have a 3 way tie for 2nd between batman  Tony Otim and Adrian on 36. On their heals on 38 in 5th is another tie between Old Fashioned Leftie and kitesurfer

Well done to all 6 for such impressive low scores.

Seat totals were as follows

Conservatives 121
Labour 412
SNP 9
Liberal Democrats 72
Plaid Cymru 4
Green 4
Reform 5
Workers Party 0
SDP 0
OTHERS 4
631

Where did you get the “Others 4” from? Which of the 5 Independents are you not counting?
And I think you have included the Speaker in your total, even though you said at the beginning that he doesn’t count as part of the bompetition.

The Northern Ireland one.

[johnloony]

Jul 6, 2024 18:59:12 GMT Defenestrated Fipplebox said:

Jul 6, 2024 18:52:11 GMT johnloony said:

Where did you get the “Others 4” from? Which of the 5 Independents are you not counting?
And I think you have included the Speaker in your total, even though you said at the beginning that he doesn’t count as part of the bompetition.

The Northern Ireland one.

We already know that you are not counting the Northern Ireland Independent, because you said in the first place that Northern Ireland wasn’t included in the competition. But that is irrelevant to my question. I did not ask you

Where do you get the “Others 5” from? Which of the 6 Independents are you not counting?

The question I asked you was

Where do you get the “Others 4” from? Which of the 5 Independents are you not counting?

P.S.And you have also not explained why you have included the Speaker within Labour’s total, even though you said he wasn’t included.

[No Offence Alan]

Jul 6, 2024 18:59:12 GMT Defenestrated Fipplebox said:

Jul 6, 2024 18:52:11 GMT johnloony said:

Where did you get the “Others 4” from? Which of the 5 Independents are you not counting?
And I think you have included the Speaker in your total, even though you said at the beginning that he doesn’t count as part of the bompetition.

The Northern Ireland one.

Islington North, Birmingham Perry Barr, Blackburn, Leicester South, Dewsbury & Batley - 5?

[norflondon]

Congratulations andrew_s
.
Pleased with mine, only 50 out. I was closest Con total with 119 along with @mrpastello and @ports who said 123. Tony otim was closest Lab with 411.

I'm just wondering how the scores are done. Is it solely 1pt for every seat one is out by?

e.g batman said
Lab 402
Con 144
LD 64
which just those three gives 41 out but he's been given a final score of 36...?

[johnloony]

Jul 6, 2024 19:27:45 GMT norflondon said:

Congratulations andrew_s
.
Pleased with mine, only 50 out. I was closest Con total with 119 along with @mrpastello and @ports who said 123. Tony otim was closest Lab with 411.

I'm just wondering how the scores are done. Is it solely 1pt for every seat one is out by?

e.g batman said
Lab 402
Con 144
LD 64
which just those three gives 41 out but he's been given a final score of 36...?

Those three figures make an error of 40 not 41

411 - 402 = 9
144 - 121 = 23
72 - 64 = 8

9 + 23 + 8 = 40

[manchesterman]

Many thanks to Defenestrated Fipplebox for organising and putting in all the effort required to run this competition.

Congrats to the winners. I'm happy enough with a Top 10 finish

[johnloony]

Jul 6, 2024 20:37:19 GMT Defenestrated Fipplebox said:

Jul 6, 2024 19:27:45 GMT norflondon said:

Congratulations andrew _s
.
Pleased with mine, only 50 out. I was closest Con total with 119 along with @mrpastello and @ports who said 123. Tony otim was closest Lab with 411.

I'm just wondering how the scores are done. Is it solely 1pt for every seat one is out by?

e.g batman said
Lab 402
Con 144
LD 64
which just those three gives 41 out but he's been given a final score of 36...?

Yes it is a point a seat.

I missed batman's revised prediction, result amended to reflect this prediction, meaning batman drops down from joint 2nd to 6th.

Apologies to batman for the mistake, not surprised something slipped through, shouldn't have happened though,  unfortunately your original prediction was the more accurate of the two.

I notice that you have edited your post above to correct the error about batman’s prediction, but you still haven’t edited it to correct the two other errors which I have already pointed out:
namely,
that Labour got 411 (not 412) because you specifically said at the start of the thread that the Speaker’s seat doesn’t count towards the total of 631,
and
the total for “Others” (i.e. the Independent MPs) is 5 not 4.

I guess that an extra error of +1 or -1 for each of the predictions is not enough to make a difference to who won the competition, but that’s not the point.

[norflondon]

Jul 6, 2024 21:24:41 GMT johnloony said:

Jul 6, 2024 19:27:45 GMT norflondon said:

Congratulations andrew_s
.
Pleased with mine, only 50 out. I was closest Con total with 119 along with @mrpastello and @ports who said 123. Tony otim was closest Lab with 411.

I'm just wondering how the scores are done. Is it solely 1pt for every seat one is out by?

e.g batman said
Lab 402
Con 144
LD 64
which just those three gives 41 out but he's been given a final score of 36...?

Those three figures make an error of 40 not 41

411 - 402 = 9
144 - 121 = 23
72 - 64 = 8

9 + 23 + 8 = 40

It's 41 not 40.

See the organisers posts above. He is using 412 Labour not 411

[johnloony]

Jul 6, 2024 22:22:12 GMT norflondon said:

Jul 6, 2024 21:24:41 GMT johnloony said:

Those three figures make an error of 40 not 41

411 - 402 = 9
144 - 121 = 23
72 - 64 = 8

9 + 23 + 8 = 40

It's 41 not 40.

See the organisers posts above. He is using 412 Labour not 411

See the original post at the start of the thread. He specifically said that the Speaker would not be included in the prediction competition, and that the competition would only relate to the 631 constituencies which are (a) not in Northern Ireland (b) not the Speaker’s. Therefore the correct figure is the number of Labour MPs (not including the Speaker), i.e. 411.

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

I hadn't realised sky had included the speaker in Labour's total, the twits. I had extrapolated the Independent number from that as I couldn't find a list of them. I have deleted results and will repost later in the morning.

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

***CORRECTED***     General Election 2024 Total Seats Prediction Competition Result   ***CORRECTED***

(Actually corrections made make very little difference overall, and none to the podium positions)

Congratulations to Andrew_S for winning this tightly fought competition with a score of 30. Following closely behind we have a tie for 2nd between Tony Otim and Adrian on 36. On their heals on 38 in 4th is another tie between Old Fashioned Leftie and kitesurfer

Well done to all 5 for such impressive low scores.

Seat totals were as follows
Conservatives 121
Labour 411
SNP 9
Liberal Democrats 72
Plaid Cymru 4
Green 4
Reform 5
Workers Party 0
SDP 0
OTHERS 5
631

Final Scores after penalties were

Andrew_S 30
Tony Otim 36
Adrian 36
Old Fashioned Leftie 40
kite surfer 40
batman 48
norflondon 52
ports 52
aslaw 56
manchesterman 56
kristofer keane 56
mrpastelito 58
Forthfarshire Conservative 58
haroldthe politician 62
syorkssocialist 62
tiberius 62
jdc 64
yellowperil 66
Pete Whitehead 68
froome 70
ricmk 74
sonofkrautrock 74
xenon 76
kevinlarkin 76
No Offence Alan 78
bigfatron 82
richardh 82
thirdchill 82
edgbaston 84
johncrane 88
sg1 92
LDCaerdydd 92
carlton43 94
andrew 106
PeopleLikeWe 112
HDT 114
doktorb 116
kevinf 116
johnloony 118
jamesmanc22 118
greenhert 120
polupolu 120
redwombat 126
jamesdoyle 130
jm 136
uthacalthing 142
msc 142
foggy 144
peterl 129
islington 152
beesknees 156
flagman 168
binky 180
nyx 180
yellowfox 288

Scores before Penalties were

Andrew_S 30
Tony Otim 36
Adrian 36
Old Fashioned Leftie 40
kite surfer 40
batman 44
norflondon 52
ports 52
aslaw 54
manchesterman 56
kristofer keane 56
mrpastelito 58
Forthfarshire Conservative 58
haroldthe politician 62
syorkssocialist 62
tiberius 62
jdc 64
yellowperil 66
Pete Whitehead 68
froome 70
ricmk 74
sonofkrautrock 74
xenon 76
kevinlarkin 76
No Offence Alan 78
bigfatron 81
richardh 82
thirdchill 82
edgbaston 84
johncrane 88
sg1 91
LDCaerdydd 92
carlton43 94
polupolu 102
andrew 106
PeopleLikeWe 111
doktorb 114
HDT 114
kevinf 116
johnloony 118
jamesmanc22 118
greenhert 120
redwombat 126
peterl 129
jamesdoyle 130
jm 136
uthacalthing 142
msc 142
foggy 144
islington 152
beesknees 156
flagman 167
binky 180
nyx 180
yellowfox 288

Thank you to all who took part

Apologies for the initial results errors, and thank you to those who pointed them out.

BDT

PS: I really must get better staff to run these competitions!