nyx
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,028
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Post by nyx on Jul 4, 2024 0:05:27 GMT
I have noticed a big difference between 2024 and 1997. In 1997 the opinion polls all indicated a landslide win for Labour, but the actual result had more Labour seats than most people expected, and (if anything) the Labour share of the vote was lower than opinion polls suggested. In 2024, the polls and projections are rather wildly suggesting a "supermajority"* in which Conservatives are reduced to only 50 or 70 or 100 seats, and with Labour on 400 or 450 or 500 despite getting "only" c.40% of the votes. I suspect that the real-life result will be more like 1997, with Conservatives somewhere between 140 and 200 - and it will feel like a triumphant recovery just because it's not as big a Labour landslide as the projections are projecting. * constitutionally there is no such thing as a "supermajority", but the constitutional principle that "the constitution is what happens" mans that it now is a thing just because a lot of people are talking about it. Interesting point. During the 1997 general election I was an embryo so I do not have any memories of that but my speculation as to potential reasons for this phenomenon would be: 1) The Conservatives were still polling in the high 20s to low 30s then, which is more of a vote base to hang onto core seats. This time, many polls have them under 20% and some have had them not even in second place. 2) The proliferation of MRPs and similar models nowadays allows for easier extrapolation/prediction from vote share to number of seats. 3) Might it have been the case that back then people paid less attention to polls than they do nowadays? |
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johnloony
Conservative
Posts: 24,532
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Post by johnloony on Jul 4, 2024 0:48:56 GMT
I have noticed a big difference between 2024 and 1997. In 1997 the opinion polls all indicated a landslide win for Labour, but the actual result had more Labour seats than most people expected, and (if anything) the Labour share of the vote was lower than opinion polls suggested. In 2024, the polls and projections are rather wildly suggesting a "supermajority"* in which Conservatives are reduced to only 50 or 70 or 100 seats, and with Labour on 400 or 450 or 500 despite getting "only" c.40% of the votes. I suspect that the real-life result will be more like 1997, with Conservatives somewhere between 140 and 200 - and it will feel like a triumphant recovery just because it's not as big a Labour landslide as the projections are projecting. * constitutionally there is no such thing as a "supermajority", but the constitutional principle that "the constitution is what happens" mans that it now is a thing just because a lot of people are talking about it. Interesting point. During the 1997 general election I was an embryo so I do not have any memories of that but my speculation as to potential reasons for this phenomenon would be: 1) The Conservatives were still polling in the high 20s to low 30s then, which is more of a vote base to hang onto core seats. This time, many polls have them under 20% and some have had them not even in second place. 2) The proliferation of MRPs and similar models nowadays allows for easier extrapolation/prediction from vote share to number of seats. 3) Might it have been the case that back then people paid less attention to polls than they do nowadays? Number 3: no; people were obsessed with polls even back in 1997 and 1992. Number 2: Extrapolating and projecting polls at the moment is less reliable than usual because of the Reform insurgent phenomenon. Number 1: Yes. P.S. I meant to add "because of tactical voting" in my first paragraph |
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Post by Andrew_S on Jul 4, 2024 5:41:29 GMT
Con 127
Lab 407
SNP 18
LD 70
PC 3
Green 3
Reform 3
Workers Party 0
SDP 0
Others 0
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Post by tiberius on Jul 4, 2024 5:44:45 GMT
Con 112
Lab 431
SNP 20
LD 60
PC 3
Green 2
Reform 2
Workers Party 0
SDP 0
Others 1
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carlton43
Reform Party
Posts: 50,889 
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Post by carlton43 on Jul 4, 2024 6:11:37 GMT
I'm surprised by the lack of people making predictions towards the lower end for Tory seat number. My prediction for the Tories (about 80 seats) is pretty much bang in the middle of what I'd say is their feasible range (10 to 140 or so) but strategically to maximize my winning chances I should probably have stuck to the lower end. I have noticed a big difference between 2024 and 1997. In 1997 the opinion polls all indicated a landslide win for Labour, but the actual result had more Labour seats than most people expected, and (if anything) the Labour share of the vote was lower than opinion polls suggested. In 2024, the polls and projections are rather wildly suggesting a "supermajority"* in which Conservatives are reduced to only 50 or 70 or 100 seats, and with Labour on 400 or 450 or 500 despite getting "only" c.40% of the votes. I suspect that the real-life result will be more like 1997, with Conservatives somewhere between 140 and 200 - and it will feel like a triumphant recovery just because it's not as big a Labour landslide as the projections are projecting. * constitutionally there is no such thing as a "supermajority", but the constitutional principle that "the constitution is what happens" mans that it now is a thing just because a lot of people are talking about it. Well, all the more reason to kill this noxious and wrongly employed phrase 'stone dead' right now. The words one needs to employ are large, devastating or huge. |
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Jul 4, 2024 6:20:28 GMT
Currently 51 entries have been accepted into this competition.
There is still time to enter if you haven't already, change and / or double check your entry for numerical accuracy if you have.
Deadline for new entries and all reisions, is 10pm tonight, close of poll.
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Post by Kristofer Keane on Jul 4, 2024 6:23:24 GMT
Con 118
Lab 419
SNP 29
LD 58
PC 3
Green 2
Reform 1
Workers Party 0
SDP 0
Others 1 (Corbyn)
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Post by bigfatron on Jul 4, 2024 6:28:02 GMT
Con 139
Lab 422
SNP 21
LD 41
PC 3
Green 2
Reform 3
Workers Party 0
SDP 0
Others (Galloway) 1
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Jul 4, 2024 6:35:03 GMT
Con 139 Lab 422 SNP 21 LD 41 PC 3 Green 2 Reform 3 Workers Party 0 SDP 0 Others (Galloway) 1
This has been recorded into the competition as
Workers Party 1
Others 0
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Post by batman on Jul 4, 2024 6:52:30 GMT
Maybe he means Corbyn? better check though if I were running the competition I'd do what you've done, too
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Jul 4, 2024 6:56:02 GMT
Con 139 Lab 422 SNP 21 LD 41 PC 3 Green 2 Reform 3 Workers Party 0 SDP 0 Others (Galloway) 1
This has been recorded into the competition as
Workers Party 1
Others 0
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Post by bigfatron on Jul 4, 2024 6:56:33 GMT
Con 139 Lab 422 SNP 21 LD 41 PC 3 Green 2 Reform 3 Workers Party 0 SDP 0 Others (Galloway) 1
This has been recorded into the competition as
Workers Party 1
Others 0
Apologies, I forgot Galloway had a party! You are correct. |
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Adrian
Co-operative Party
Posts: 1,742
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Post by Adrian on Jul 4, 2024 14:40:57 GMT
Conservatives 126
Labour 404
SNP 22
Liberal Democrats 69
Plaid Cymru 3
Green 2
Reform 5
Workers Party 0
SDP (lol) 0
Others 0
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Jul 4, 2024 15:11:41 GMT
Currently 54 entries have been accepted into this competition.
There is still time to enter if you haven't already, change and / or double check your entry for numerical accuracy if you have.
Deadline for new entries and all reisions, is 10pm tonight, close of poll.
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Post by norflondon on Jul 4, 2024 15:13:47 GMT
Subject to possible change (at 9pm):
Conservative 129
Labour 416
SNP 18
Liberal Democrats 56
Plaid Cymru 2
Green 2
Reform 7 (seven)
Workers Party of Britain 0
SDP 0
OTHERS 1
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nyx
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,028
Member is Online
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Post by nyx on Jul 4, 2024 18:50:52 GMT
Conservatives 83 Labour 425 SNP 17 Liberal Democrats 86 Plaid Cymru 3 Green 5 Reform 7 Workers Party 1 SDP 0 OTHERS 6 Gonna change this at the last minute. If I'm going to be wrong I'm going to do it boldly. Gut tells me Reform will overperform polls. I will probably look silly in a few hours. Conservatives 32 Labour 423 SNP 22 Liberal Democrats 84 Plaid Cymru 3 Green 5 Reform 56 Workers 0 SDP 0 Others 6 |
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nodealbrexiteer
Forum Regular
non aligned favour no deal brexit!
Posts: 4,447
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Jul 4, 2024 18:53:19 GMT
Conservatives 83 Labour 425 SNP 17 Liberal Democrats 86 Plaid Cymru 3 Green 5 Reform 7 Workers Party 1 SDP 0 OTHERS 6 Gonna change this at the last minute. If I'm going to be wrong I'm going to do it boldly. Gut tells me Reform will overperform polls. I will probably look silly in a few hours. Conservatives 32 Labour 423 SNP 22 Liberal Democrats 84 Plaid Cymru 3 Green 5 Reform 56 Workers 0 SDP 0 Others 6 beyond bold! |
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Post by No Offence Alan on Jul 4, 2024 18:58:51 GMT
Conservatives 83 Labour 425 SNP 17 Liberal Democrats 86 Plaid Cymru 3 Green 5 Reform 7 Workers Party 1 SDP 0 OTHERS 6 Gonna change this at the last minute. If I'm going to be wrong I'm going to do it boldly. Gut tells me Reform will overperform polls. I will probably look silly in a few hours. Conservatives 32 Labour 423 SNP 22 Liberal Democrats 84 Plaid Cymru 3 Green 5 Reform 56 Workers 0 SDP 0 Others 6 But we are only targeting [REDACTED] seats. |
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Jul 4, 2024 20:14:42 GMT
Final Call
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Post by manchesterman on Jul 4, 2024 20:24:28 GMT
Do you mean "Last Orders"  |
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