General Election 2024 Total Seats Prediction Competition.

[nodealbrexiteer]

Jul 3, 2024 7:28:51 GMT carlton43 said:

LABOUR   441
CONS        128
LD                39
SNP             19
PC                  2
REF                2
GREEN          0
SDP               0
WORKERS    0
OTHERS        0

1924(almost) in reverse!

[Tony Otim]

Jun 24, 2024 10:46:42 GMT Tony Otim said:

I've tried going through seat by seat. I may be underestimating Reform, I may be underestimating the scale of the Conservative collapse, but feel I've pushed them down as far as I can see happening. One or two seats I freely admit to indulging in wishful thinking (SW Norfolk). I was very reluctant to give Clacton to Reform, but that is one of my late changes:

Lab 411
Con 137
LD 57
SNP 15
PC 4
Reform 3
Grn 3
Oth 1
(Workers Party, SDP, etc...) 0

Slight update:
Lab 411
Con 131
LD 62
SNP 17
PC 4
Grn 4
Reform 2
Oth 0

[batman]

A slight final update from me :

Lab 402
C 144
LD 64
SNP 10
PC 3
Green 4
ReformUK 4
SDP 0
Workers 0
Others 4

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

All entries now updated. There are currently 42 entries to this competition.

[norflondon]

My entry will go in at 9pm. Can you give us all 42 predictions? Cheers

[msc]

Conservatives 177
Labour 364
SNP 24
Liberal Democrats 57
Plaid Cymru 4
Green 2
Reform 2
Workers Party 0
SDP 0
OTHERS - 1 independent
total - 631

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

Jul 3, 2024 10:16:56 GMT norflondon said:

My entry will go in at 9pm. Can you give us all 42 predictions? Cheers

I'm not planning to collate them, or present them together in any way.

[andrew]

Labour 372
Conservatives 168
Liberal Democrats 66
SNP 15
Plaid Cymru 4
Reform 3
Green 2
Workers Party 0
SDP 0
Others 1

[jamesmanc22]

Labour 396
Tories 171
Lib Dem 40
SNP 18
Sinn Fein 7
DUP 5
Reform 3
Alliance 3
SDLP 2
UUP 1
Independents 3 ( Corbyn, Yakoob and Iqbal Mohammed)
Speaker 1

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

All entries now updated. There are currently 45 predictions entered into this competition.

[manchesterman]

Hopefully we can get to 50 entries before the deadline! I hope your spreadsheet can cope

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

Jul 3, 2024 14:54:25 GMT manchesterman said:

Hopefully we can get to 50 entries before the deadline! I hope your spreadsheet can cope

Its quite possible we may get that many entries as there are still 30 hours to go until this competition closes.

The spreadsheet will cope, not sure about my brain though. 

[No Offence Alan]

My prediction:
Conservatives 144
Labour 414
SNP 21
Liberal Democrats 41
Plaid Cymru 3
Green 2
Reform 4
Workers Party 1
SDP 0
OTHERS 1

[nyx]

I'm surprised by the lack of people making predictions towards the lower end for Tory seat number. My prediction for the Tories (about 80 seats) is pretty much bang in the middle of what I'd say is their feasible range (10 to 140 or so) but strategically to maximize my winning chances I should probably have stuck to the lower end.

[froome]

Jul 3, 2024 19:16:03 GMT nyx said:

I'm surprised by the lack of people making predictions towards the lower end for Tory seat number. My prediction for the Tories (about 80 seats) is pretty much bang in the middle of what I'd say is their feasible range (10 to 140 or so) but strategically to maximize my winning chances I should probably have stuck to the lower end.

I think 3 figures for the Conservatives is a psychological barrier. If they fall below that, they may become helpless in fighting off a Farage led takeover in their own civil war. 100+ and the Conservatives can survive the internecine warfare they will face.

[Foggy]

Jul 3, 2024 19:16:03 GMT nyx said:

I'm surprised by the lack of people making predictions towards the lower end for Tory seat number. My prediction for the Tories (about 80 seats) is pretty much bang in the middle of what I'd say is their feasible range (10 to 140 or so) but strategically to maximize my winning chances I should probably have stuck to the lower end.

As someone who pays no heed to MPR or Electoral Calculus bollocks, I'm confident in my prediction that they'll finish beyond the upper end of that. 

It would be more difficult to avoid voting intention polls entirely without switching off from politics during the campaign, so I have noticed those. I think the only way the Tories end up below 140 is if one of Lab/LD/Reform is 5 percentage points higher than recent polling and consequently the Conservatives are 5 points lower, or else "tAcTiCaL v0tInG" tomorrow will be more efficient than I'm expecting (and than it ever has been before). 

[froome]

Probably about time to revise my 631 SDP prediction.

After clutching figures from the air, my new prediction is:

Conservative 104
Labour 436
SNP 18
Lib Dem 60
Plaid Cymru 4
Green 3
Reform 3
Workers Party 1
SDP 0 (a bit of turnaround there!)
Independents 2

[kevinlarkin]

Conservative - 140
Labour - 421
SNP - 18
Liberal Democrats - 44
Plaid Cymru - 2
Green - 2
Reform - 3
Workers Party - 0
SDP - 0
OTHERS - 1

[johnloony]

Jul 3, 2024 19:16:03 GMT nyx said:

I'm surprised by the lack of people making predictions towards the lower end for Tory seat number. My prediction for the Tories (about 80 seats) is pretty much bang in the middle of what I'd say is their feasible range (10 to 140 or so) but strategically to maximize my winning chances I should probably have stuck to the lower end.

I have noticed a big difference between 2024 and 1997.

In 1997 the opinion polls all indicated a landslide win for Labour, but the actual result had more Labour seats than most people expected, and (if anything) the Labour share of the vote was lower than opinion polls suggested.

In 2024, the polls and projections are rather wildly suggesting a "supermajority"* in which Conservatives are reduced to only 50 or 70 or 100 seats, and with Labour on 400 or 450 or 500 despite getting "only" c.40% of the votes. I suspect that the real-life result will be more like 1997, with Conservatives somewhere between 140 and 200 - and it will feel like a triumphant recovery just because it's not as big a Labour landslide as the projections are projecting.

* constitutionally there is no such thing as a "supermajority", but the constitutional principle that "the constitution is what happens" mans that it now is a thing just because a lot of people are talking about it.

[edgbaston]

Conservatives 156
Labour 385
SNP 17
Liberal Democrats 67
Plaid Cymru 2
Green 2
Reform 2
Workers Party 0
SDP 0
OTHERS 0