binky
Non-Aligned
Posts: 63
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Post by binky on Jul 2, 2024 12:08:05 GMT
Conservatives 221 Labour 354 SNP 31 Liberal Democrats 19 Plaid Cymru 3 Green 1 Reform 1 Workers Party 0 SDP 0 OTHERS 1 (Corbyn) Revising this prediction. Conservatives 190 Labour 385 SNP 30 Lliberal Democrats 19 Plaid Cymru 3 Green 2 Reform 1 Workers Party 0 SDP 0 Others 1 (Corbyn) |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 2, 2024 12:37:21 GMT
Almost certainly still too high for the SNP (the Scottish polls would have to be badly out for that to happen) and *way* too low for the LibDems - this isn't 2019 and they have very much remembered what targeting actually is. But there's always the chance an "offbeat" prediction will confound the critics.
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Post by islington on Jul 2, 2024 12:47:45 GMT
OK, I'll play and, for now at least, I'm sticking to the prediction I posted on another thread.
Conservatives 175
Labour 405
SNP 30
Liberal Democrats 17
Plaid Cymru 2
Green 1
Reform 0
Workers Party 1
SDP 0
OTHERS 0
I posted this back on 25 May (see how long this wretched campaign has ground on ...), but I reserved my right to revise it nearer to GE day depending on how things had evolved. And with only two days to go, it's really now or never.
Well, the Lib Dems have advanced slightly from the 9% they were polling when I made my prediction, so they may do better than I thought (but unless they have a very late surge I still don't see them getting anything like the 50+ in many other forecasts). Reform may pick up a handful, and the Tories have drifted down and may struggle to reach 150. And if further Tory losses are mostly not for the benefit of the Lib Dems or Reform, the implication is that they'll be hoovered up by Labour because where else is there for them to go?
But I'm loth to change my prediction. After all, suppose I upped the Lid Dems to 25 but in the final outcome they wound up with 17 after all? I'd really kick myself for not sticking to my guns.
So stet.
We'll know on Friday.
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Post by johnloony on Jul 2, 2024 16:13:35 GMT
Revised prediction
Conservatives 153
Labour 409
SNP 21
Liberal Democrats 42
Plaid Cymru 2
Green 2
Reform 1
Workers Party 0
SDP 0
OTHERS 1 (Corbyn)
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Post by norflondon on Jul 2, 2024 16:15:30 GMT
binky 190 Con v high. What's your thinking?
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nyx
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,030
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Post by nyx on Jul 2, 2024 18:36:32 GMT
Having had a look at the map by my feelings on each individual seat, update Final update: Conservatives 83 Labour 425 SNP 17 Liberal Democrats 86 Plaid Cymru 3 Green 5 Reform 7 Workers Party 1 SDP 0 OTHERS 6  Northern Ireland for fun: North Down flip Alliance->Ind, East Belfast and Lagan Valley flip DUP->Alliance, South Antrim flip DUP->UUP, all others stay the same. Credit to Pete Whitehead (if I recall correctly, apologies if I misremembered!) for making the basemap. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 2, 2024 18:41:17 GMT
Having had a look at the map by my feelings on each individual seat, update Final update: Conservatives 83 Labour 425 SNP 17 Liberal Democrats 86 Plaid Cymru 3 Green 5 Reform 7 Workers Party 1 SDP 0 OTHERS 6 Northern Ireland for fun: North Down flip Alliance->Ind, East Belfast and Lagan Valley flip DUP->Alliance, South Antrim flip DUP->UUP, all others stay the same. Credit to Pete Whitehead (if I recall correctly, apologies if I misremembered!) for making the basemap. The credit goes to afleitch |
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Jul 2, 2024 19:45:30 GMT
Stab in the dark to be honest. I just don't think the polls are right. I find it hard to imagine the Conservatives in double figures and Reform or Green on more that 1 and 2 respectively. Though, perhaps I am wrong and we will see a huge realignment.
Labour 401
Conservative 141
Liberal Democrat 64
SNP 18
Plaid Cymru 4
Green 2
Reform 1
SDP 0
Workers 0
Others 0
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jdc
Non-Aligned
Posts: 96 
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Post by jdc on Jul 2, 2024 20:20:46 GMT
OK let's have a go.
Conservatives 99
Labour 427
SNP 22
Liberal Democrats 65
Plaid Cymru 4
Green 4
Reform 8
Workers Party 0
SDP 0
OTHERS 2
The wild prediction isn't an official tie-break just fun then? I'll go Reform gain Basildon and Billericay and, for 10 minutes, are thus the largest party.
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xenon
Forum Regular
Posts: 426
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Post by xenon on Jul 2, 2024 20:23:10 GMT
Revision to my prediction:
Labour Party 442
Conservatives 105
Liberal Democrats 55
SNP 15
Reform UK 5
Green Party 4
Plaid Cymru 3
Workers Party 1
Independents 1*
SDP 0
+ 1 Speaker and 18 Northern Irelanders
*I haven't decided who this will be but there probably will be one. In order of likelihood, Corbyn, Gaza Indy in Batley, Gaza Indy in Ladywood, Bagge.
( Edited for my bad maths )
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xenon
Forum Regular
Posts: 426
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Post by xenon on Jul 2, 2024 20:24:44 GMT
I'll go Reform gain Basildon and Billericay and, for 10 minutes, are thus the largest party. A brave prediction for Labour to lose two or three Sunderland seats, one in Newcastle, plus Blyth and Ashington! |
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nodealbrexiteer
Forum Regular
non aligned favour no deal brexit!
Posts: 4,447
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Jul 2, 2024 20:25:31 GMT
Stab in the dark to be honest. I just don't think the polls are right. I find it hard to imagine the Conservatives in double figures and Reform or Green on more that 1 and 2 respectively. Though, perhaps I am wrong and we will see a huge realignment. Labour 401 Conservative 141 Liberal Democrat 64 SNP 18 Plaid Cymru 4 Green 2 Reform 1 SDP 0 Workers 0 Others 0 strongly agree with bolded bit |
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Post by froome on Jul 2, 2024 20:29:00 GMT
I'll go Reform gain Basildon and Billericay and, for 10 minutes, are thus the largest party. A brave prediction for Labour to lose two or three Sunderland seats, one in Newcastle, plus Blyth and Ashington! The polls had us fooled the whole time! |
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Foggy
Non-Aligned
Yn Ennill Yma
Posts: 6,135
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Post by Foggy on Jul 2, 2024 23:22:29 GMT
Labour (& Co-op) - 358
Conservative (& Unionist) - 181
Lib Dem - 58
SNP - 17
Green - 7
DUP - 6
[SF - 6] (abstentionist)
Plaid - 4
APNI - 3
Reform - 3
Independent - 2
SDLP - 2
Speaker - 1
UUP - 1
Workers Party - 1
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Jul 3, 2024 4:56:15 GMT
There are now 39 entries in this competition.
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Post by carlton43 on Jul 3, 2024 7:28:51 GMT
LABOUR 441
CONS 128
LD 39
SNP 19
PC 2
REF 2
GREEN 0
SDP 0
WORKERS 0
OTHERS 0
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jdc
Non-Aligned
Posts: 96
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Post by jdc on Jul 3, 2024 7:43:10 GMT
I'll go Reform gain Basildon and Billericay and, for 10 minutes, are thus the largest party. A brave prediction for Labour to lose two or three Sunderland seats, one in Newcastle, plus Blyth and Ashington! I'm banking on increased turnout in the enthusiastic Labour heartlands after the demoralisation of 2019 to slow down their counting. |
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Post by richardh on Jul 3, 2024 8:10:18 GMT
My prediction:
Conservatives 129
Labour 439
SNP 13
Liberal Democrats 44
Plaid Cymru 2
Green 1
Reform 2
Workers Party 1
SDP 0
OTHERS 0
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Post by Old Fashioned Leftie on Jul 3, 2024 8:18:17 GMT
Updated prediction:
Conservatives: 115
Labour: 425
SNP: 15
Liberal Democrats: 65
Plaid Cymru; 2
Green: 3
Reform: 5
Workers Party: 0
SDP: 0
OTHERS: 1
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Post by yellowperil on Jul 3, 2024 8:50:47 GMT
OK, then, a full week earlier than I intended:
Con 138
Lab 416
SNP 20
LD 46
PC 4
GP 3
RUK 2
WPB 0
SDP 0
Oth 2
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