aargauer
Conservative
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Post by aargauer on Jul 2, 2024 18:22:10 GMT
I see a pretty tight 1-3 and reform 4th
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Post by iainbhx on Jul 2, 2024 18:30:33 GMT
The Lib Dems are definitely campaigning and putting effort in. Plus they have the benefit of being the presumed challenger to the Tories for the slightly informed voter in the Monty side of the seat.
Lib Dems likely second is my guess. Reform 5th or maybe 4th.
Though it's fair to say that this seat is difficult to predict to say these least.
Exactly, it's an unknown quantity due to the strange circumstances at this election. I don't see Reform coming behind Plaid so would likely be 2nd to 4th, but with the Conservative candidate disowned Reform does seem the most likely place for those voters to go. Not everybody will be aware that the Conservative candidate was disowned of course, but I think multiple parties will be stressing that fact to the electorate repeatedly. Nor do I think that Reform have a strong enough ground game to capitalise on that completely. Disowned candidates don't that much effect in general elections, although from a couple of conversations yesterday in Machynlleth, the word is about. They returned only slightly dampened results normally. I'm not sure Reform have much of a ground game anywhere but Clacton. Given the blokes result in the by-election in a ward next to where he lives was 2%. I think claiming he's going to be second is a bit. |
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,905
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Post by YL on Jul 5, 2024 3:44:00 GMT
Labour have won.
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Sg1
Conservative
Posts: 1,084 
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Post by Sg1 on Jul 5, 2024 6:48:44 GMT
This could well be Reform's strongest performance in Wales, with a potential second place. I guess I was right about one thing. |
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johng
Labour
Posts: 4,849
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Post by johng on Jul 5, 2024 17:36:22 GMT
29.4% for Labour's win so a very low share.
Williams did a bit better than expected too. He might have held on if not for that bet.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Jul 5, 2024 17:37:56 GMT
Williams did a bit better than expected too. He might have held on if not for that bet. I wouldn't bet on it. |
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,025
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Post by Sibboleth on Jul 5, 2024 23:54:22 GMT
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,025
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Post by Sibboleth on Jul 7, 2024 23:42:20 GMT
Anyway, the Denbighshire section of this constituency will have been 1. Labour, 2. Big Gap, 3. Reform thus the outcome, but what do we think things looked like in Montgomery?
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Post by iainbhx on Jul 8, 2024 9:27:41 GMT
This could well be Reform's strongest performance in Wales, with a potential second place. I guess I was right about one thing. Llanelli says no. |
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Sg1
Conservative
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Post by Sg1 on Jul 8, 2024 10:39:33 GMT
I guess I was right about one thing. Llanelli says no. One thing, the second place. I think that Llanelli blindsided everyone 😆 |
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Post by iainbhx on Jul 8, 2024 10:52:20 GMT
One thing, the second place. I think that Llanelli blindsided everyone 😆 I think that’s a fair comment. |
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,025
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Post by Sibboleth on Jul 8, 2024 11:07:33 GMT
One thing, the second place. I think that Llanelli blindsided everyone 😆 I think that’s a fair comment. I did vaguely wonder given a certain really unfortunate local issue, but assumed that Labour locally had a handle on it, otherwise we'd have heard mutterings (as o/c we did about other places, often with, as it turned out, little reason to worry), but... |
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Rural Radical
Labour
Now living in a Labour held ward at Borough level for the first time in many years
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Post by Rural Radical on Jul 10, 2024 22:47:04 GMT
Anyway, the Denbighshire section of this constituency will have been 1. Labour, 2. Big Gap, 3. Reform thus the outcome, but what do we think things looked like in Montgomery? I’m guessing the Tories slightly ahead of Reform with Labour not too far behind in 3rd |
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iain
Lib Dem
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Post by iain on Jul 11, 2024 0:00:49 GMT
Anyway, the Denbighshire section of this constituency will have been 1. Labour, 2. Big Gap, 3. Reform thus the outcome, but what do we think things looked like in Montgomery? I’m guessing the Tories slightly ahead of Reform with Labour not too far behind in 3rd I’m not even sure Labour would have been ahead of the Lib Dems. Pretty tight 4 ways I’d imagine. |
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Rural Radical
Labour
Now living in a Labour held ward at Borough level for the first time in many years
Posts: 1,627
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Post by Rural Radical on Jul 11, 2024 17:32:23 GMT
I’m guessing the Tories slightly ahead of Reform with Labour not too far behind in 3rd I’m not even sure Labour would have been ahead of the Lib Dems. Pretty tight 4 ways I’d imagine. I was unsure about 3rd place in the Montgomeryshire part. I would guess that Labour did well in Newtown |
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nyx
Non-Aligned
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Post by nyx on Jul 11, 2024 18:09:26 GMT
Anyway, the Denbighshire section of this constituency will have been 1. Labour, 2. Big Gap, 3. Reform thus the outcome, but what do we think things looked like in Montgomery? Given the Montgomeryshire portion makes up almost precisely 2/3 of the constituency, my estimate judging by the vague political inclination of each half would be: Clwyd portion- Labour 43.1%, Reform 20.1%, Conservative 15.2%, Plaid 13.3%, Lib Dem 4.9%, Green 3.4% Montgomeryshire portion- Labour 22.5%, Reform 20.8%, Lib Dem 20%, Conservative 19.4%, Plaid 13.0%, Green 4.3% |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Aug 6, 2024 18:55:12 GMT
Let's see what the former MP is up to these days.  Er, oh dear. |
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Aug 6, 2024 18:56:19 GMT
FFS
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,025
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Post by Sibboleth on Aug 6, 2024 19:19:16 GMT
For whatever reason it is very important to him to cement or regain his title as the most embarrassing man to represent Montgomery in recent times. |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Aug 6, 2024 19:33:57 GMT
For whatever reason it is very important to him to cement or regain his title as the most embarrassing man to represent Montgomery in recent times. The most embarrassing man to represent the constituency chatting with the most embarrassing man to have lived in the constituency? |
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