stb12
Top Poster
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Post by stb12 on Mar 14, 2024 2:32:20 GMT
Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr
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binky
Non-Aligned
Posts: 63
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Post by binky on May 30, 2024 13:47:29 GMT
Who is the favorite here?
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Sg1
Conservative
Posts: 1,084
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Post by Sg1 on May 30, 2024 14:09:45 GMT
Would be surprised at anything other than a Conservative hold with Labour and the Lib Dems polling between 20-30% each, then again, I haven't campaigned here so I'm not sure how things are looking on the ground. Also to my knowledge this is the primary seat where the lib Dems efforts are being put in for Wales.
My mistake, I thought this was the Brecon page. I could see Labour in a decent second place here, but not winning it.
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Post by LDCaerdydd on May 30, 2024 14:11:05 GMT
I would say the Conservatives and that this could be their only seat in Wales. Liberal/Lib Dem dominance in this area is long gone and the new boundaries only make it tougher.
I can't see Labour pulling this off, if they did they'd probably be looking at 450-500 seats, they could easily come second.
I could of course be completely wrong.
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Post by LDCaerdydd on May 30, 2024 14:11:59 GMT
Also to my knowledge this is the primary seat where the lib Dems efforts are being put in for Wales. That would be Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe. |
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Sg1
Conservative
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Post by Sg1 on May 30, 2024 14:13:35 GMT
Also to my knowledge this is the primary seat where the lib Dems efforts are being put in for Wales. That would be Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe. My mistake, I posted in the wrong page. Although my point stands for that seat. |
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Post by carolus on Jun 7, 2024 16:21:42 GMT
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mrtoad
Labour
He is a toad. Who knows what a toad thinks?
Posts: 424
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Post by mrtoad on Jun 12, 2024 17:14:31 GMT
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 9,139
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Post by cogload on Jun 12, 2024 17:51:54 GMT
Cue John Mccririck..."it's a touch"...
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Post by markgoodair on Jun 13, 2024 4:22:33 GMT
A corrupt Tory who would have guessed? |
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Yaffles
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Post by Yaffles on Jun 13, 2024 12:18:57 GMT
What an absolute plank. This was one of only three seats I thought the Tories had a chance of holding onto in Wales, perhaps that's just got significantly less likely.
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Post by 🏴☠️ Neath West 🏴☠️ on Jun 13, 2024 12:48:36 GMT
I wonder who Oliver Lewis, the Reform candidate, is. He'll probably do very well now the Conservative candidate has been a complete and utter moron.
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Yaffles
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Post by Yaffles on Jun 13, 2024 12:54:54 GMT
I wonder who Oliver Lewis, the Reform candidate, is. He'll probably do very well now the Conservative candidate has been a complete and utter moron. Nah I disagree, I don't think Reform really know how to campaign, especially in rural areas, where they have never done particularly well (including UKIP and Brexit Party). In the 90s/early 00s this would now be a Lib Dem shoe in but they have shrunk back from their previous peak. |
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batman
Labour
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Post by batman on Jun 13, 2024 12:58:01 GMT
If the Tories lose this it'll be to Labour.
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nyx
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Post by nyx on Jun 13, 2024 20:34:55 GMT
Labour can probably gain it via heavily winning the south Clwyd portion of the seat, even if the Tories hang onto the Montgomeryshire bit by a reduced margin.
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Jun 13, 2024 20:41:14 GMT
I wonder who Oliver Lewis, the Reform candidate, is. He'll probably do very well now the Conservative candidate has been a complete and utter moron. Nah I disagree, I don't think Reform really know how to campaign, especially in rural areas, where they have never done particularly well (including UKIP and Brexit Party). In the 90s/early 00s this would now be a Lib Dem shoe in but they have shrunk back from their previous peak. Oliver Lewis is Reform’s panellist on next week’s BBC Wales Debate. Not sure he has any leadership role, but they’re clearly keen and trusting of him. |
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Post by greenhert on Jun 13, 2024 20:50:38 GMT
If the Tories lose this it'll be to Labour. And funnily enough (counting the predecessor seat of Montgomeryshire) this is up to now the only Welsh constituency to have never elected a Labour MP at any time! |
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johng
Labour
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Post by johng on Jun 13, 2024 21:38:11 GMT
If the Tories lose this it'll be to Labour.
I agree, but it's an incredibly big ask.
Boundary changes are also to our advantage of course.
And this is the seat that kicked out Lembit Opik during Cleggmania with a rather hefty swing. Clearly personalities matter in a large rural constituency.
But it's still a massive task as I think the ground operation isn't strong enough to focus on us vs. them. The Lib Dems still have a relatively large residual vote and a not unsubstantial ground operation too. That muddies the waters and could allow Williams through on a small share of the vote - say the mid 30s.
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johng
Labour
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Post by johng on Jun 13, 2024 21:42:50 GMT
If the Tories lose this it'll be to Labour. And funnily enough (counting the predecessor seat of Montgomeryshire) this is up to now the only Welsh constituency to have never elected a Labour MP at any time! Labour has never come second before too except when there have only been two candidates (which has happened a couple of times actually).
We've never come second in the Assembly/ Senedd elections either.
Boundary changes help, but, as I said, this is a big ask.
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batman
Labour
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Post by batman on Jun 13, 2024 21:56:02 GMT
It is a big ask, but this is an election where quite a lot of big asks will be granted by the electorate. Perhaps somewhat less so in Wales, so I wouldn't be surprised at a Con hold. In these circumstances though it is dangerous all right.
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