nyx
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Post by nyx on Jun 13, 2024 22:24:59 GMT
It is a big ask, but this is an election where quite a lot of big asks will be granted by the electorate. Perhaps somewhat less so in Wales, so I wouldn't be surprised at a Con hold. In these circumstances though it is dangerous all right. It's also a decent contender for a four-way marginal if the Reform polling holds up- the Reform candidate here is going to represent the party in the Welsh debate next week and it's clearly their main target seat in Wales; the Tory MP messing up with betting won't help the Tories; and the Lib Dems probably won't win but do have a reasonably high floor. |
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johng
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Post by johng on Jun 13, 2024 23:17:32 GMT
It is a big ask, but this is an election where quite a lot of big asks will be granted by the electorate. Perhaps somewhat less so in Wales, so I wouldn't be surprised at a Con hold. In these circumstances though it is dangerous all right. It's also a decent contender for a four-way marginal if the Reform polling holds up- the Reform candidate here is going to represent the party in the Welsh debate next week and it's clearly their main target seat in Wales; the Tory MP messing up with betting won't help the Tories; and the Lib Dems probably won't win but do have a reasonably high floor.
Why not a five way marginal? Plaid came second in Montgomeryshire and third in Clwyd South in the last Senedd election after all (Reform were fifth and seventh for comparison). Though I do think this is a Con-Lab battle.
The following seems most realistic at the moment:
Conservatives = most likely to win, but not heavy favourites.
Labour = a reasonable chance of a gain, but would win with a relatively low percentage.
Lib Dems = quite unlikely, but not impossible. Especially with the vote heavily split.
Plaid/ Reform/ Green = no chance.
No matter who wins, it is going to be 3X% for the winner IMO.
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Sibboleth
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Post by Sibboleth on Jun 13, 2024 23:27:24 GMT
A higher proportion of the electorate - it is around about a third - of this absurdity of a constituency were previously in Clwyd South than people seem to realize. The area in question is normally heavily Labour.
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on Jun 13, 2024 23:35:10 GMT
If I’m adding a poll here who should the options be?
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nyx
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Post by nyx on Jun 13, 2024 23:42:08 GMT
If I’m adding a poll here who should the options be? I would say it's a Con vs Lab race, but if you want to add other parties with a distant but not totally inconceivable outside shot (as has been done in some other seats) then it may be worth adding LD/Reform/Plaid too. (I'm expecting something like Lab 30%, Con 25%, Rfm 15%, LD 15%, PC 15%) |
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johng
Labour
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Post by johng on Jun 13, 2024 23:51:29 GMT
If I’m adding a poll here who should the options be? Lab / Con / LD
None of the other three parties have a realistic chance of winning.
I think the numbers by nyx are not unreasonable. Though I'd place Plaid and Reform a touch lower closer to 10% whilst adding a few points to everyone else. This is an early prediction though. Let's see how the Williams story develops. |
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nyx
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Post by nyx on Jun 13, 2024 23:59:58 GMT
In the event of Reform's recent strong national polling holding up (several polls showing them at least neck and neck with the Tories in Wales), and/or the Williams story going badly for him, it's conceivable that Reform could finish ahead of the Tories here. But in that event I think Labour would still win the seat.
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on Jun 14, 2024 7:28:19 GMT
As mentioned elsewhere Welsh seats isn’t somewhere I’m great with knowledge on, it sounds like five parties can at least have decent shares of the vote so I’ll add them all just to be safe
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
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Post by cogload on Jun 14, 2024 10:45:49 GMT
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cibwr
Plaid Cymru
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Post by cibwr on Jun 18, 2024 15:20:55 GMT
Nah I disagree, I don't think Reform really know how to campaign, especially in rural areas, where they have never done particularly well (including UKIP and Brexit Party). In the 90s/early 00s this would now be a Lib Dem shoe in but they have shrunk back from their previous peak. Oliver Lewis is Reform’s panellist on next week’s BBC Wales Debate. Not sure he has any leadership role, but they’re clearly keen and trusting of him. Makes a change for Reform/UKIP/Brexit to put someone up with some semblance of credibility.... |
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
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Post by cogload on Jun 18, 2024 16:50:26 GMT
Mater's home constituency these days. She informed me this morning that she might vote Plaid...🫤
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Post by manchesterman on Jun 19, 2024 17:42:27 GMT
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Post by mattb on Jun 19, 2024 17:43:30 GMT
That's a police protection officer |
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Post by manchesterman on Jun 19, 2024 17:55:33 GMT
oh yes..mis-read it!
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Post by batman on Jun 19, 2024 18:43:53 GMT
arrest manchesterman
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Post by johnloony on Jun 19, 2024 19:46:14 GMT
That's a police protection officer I demand that the Conservative candidate must stop moonlighting as the PM’s bodyguard |
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Post by 🏴☠️ Neath West 🏴☠️ on Jun 19, 2024 19:53:23 GMT
That's a police protection officer No reporting restrictions there... |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 20, 2024 7:11:34 GMT
Prediction: there will be a by-election here later this year (the first of the next Parliament), Seb Payne will be the Tory candidate, and the Lib Dems will then win.
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johng
Labour
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Post by johng on Jun 20, 2024 10:00:11 GMT
With betting on the election date back in the headlines, it will, hopefully, have an additional negative effect on the Tory campaign.
Edit: Though I am still Tory hold in the poll. Might change closer to election day.
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nyx
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Post by nyx on Jun 20, 2024 16:48:25 GMT
Prediction: there will be a by-election here later this year (the first of the next Parliament) I take it you're assuming the Conservatives manage to get re-elected in the general election then? |
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