Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 20, 2024 17:02:48 GMT
Prediction: there will be a by-election here later this year (the first of the next Parliament) I take it you're assuming the Conservatives manage to get re-elected in the general election then? I think this will be their only Welsh seat, yes. |
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
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Post by YL on Jun 25, 2024 9:49:36 GMT
The Tories have now withdrawn support from Williams, whatever that means in practice at this point.
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Jun 25, 2024 9:49:41 GMT
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Post by finsobruce on Jun 25, 2024 9:56:43 GMT
The Tories have now withdrawn support from Williams, whatever that means in practice at this point. Well he presumably won't be getting any help from region or central office, but whether that makes a difference depends on how much he was getting anyway. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 25, 2024 9:58:16 GMT
The Tories have now withdrawn support from Williams, whatever that means in practice at this point. Well he presumably won't be getting any help from region or central office, but whether that makes a difference depends on how much he was getting anyway. I am doubtful they can beat him. Recall that the Tories almost won Brecon & Radnor in the 2019 by-election despite the bad apple candidate running again. |
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johng
Labour
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Post by johng on Jun 25, 2024 9:58:52 GMT
The Tories have now withdrawn support from Williams, whatever that means in practice at this point. Well he presumably won't be getting any help from region or central office, but whether that makes a difference depends on how much he was getting anyway.
This was probably the Tories most winnable seat in Wales so presumably a fair amount.
Good news for Labour.
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nyx
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Post by nyx on Jun 25, 2024 10:05:33 GMT
I'd say Labour win with Reform not too far behind in second.
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Post by finsobruce on Jun 25, 2024 10:06:49 GMT
Well he presumably won't be getting any help from region or central office, but whether that makes a difference depends on how much he was getting anyway. I am doubtful they can beat him. Recall that the Tories almost won Brecon & Radnor in the 2019 by-election despite the bad apple candidate running again. It's not really a question of the candidates moral standing, more whether there will enough/any people to GOTV for him in a close contest. |
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Post by Merseymike on Jun 25, 2024 10:12:19 GMT
The Tories will lose - but who, I don't know. The LibDems used to win, Labour have some better areas given the boundaries, which party?
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iain
Lib Dem
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Post by iain on Jun 25, 2024 10:23:58 GMT
The Tories have now withdrawn support from Williams, whatever that means in practice at this point. In the past a party withdrawing support from a GE candidate has tended to make a material difference (Labour in Banff & Buchan 2015, SE Cambs 2010, Tories in Leeds NE 2019 all spring to mind) so this does IMO strongly increase the chances of a Conservative wipeout in Wales. |
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Post by Merseymike on Jun 25, 2024 10:30:40 GMT
The Tories have now withdrawn support from Williams, whatever that means in practice at this point. In the past a party withdrawing support from a GE candidate has tended to make a material difference (Labour in Banff & Buchan 2015, SE Cambs 2010, Tories in Leeds NE 2019 all spring to mind) so this does IMO strongly increase the chances of a Conservative wipeout in Wales. And Rochdale 2024! |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 25, 2024 10:32:48 GMT
Of course it would be totemic since Montgomeryhsire is the only seat never to have elected a Labour MP. It has a fascinating history: Liberal 1880 - 1979, Conservative 1979 - 1983, Liberal/Lib Dem 1983 to 2010; Conservative (with increasingly stupendous momentum) since 2010.
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nyx
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Post by nyx on Jun 25, 2024 10:51:12 GMT
Of course it would be totemic since Montgomeryhsire is the only seat never to have elected a Labour MP. It has a fascinating history: Liberal 1880 - 1979, Conservative 1979 - 1983, Liberal/Lib Dem 1983 to 2010; Conservative (with increasingly stupendous momentum) since 2010. Of course Montgomershire has never shared a constituency with Labour-leaning Wrexham suburbs until now. |
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johng
Labour
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Post by johng on Jun 25, 2024 11:02:30 GMT
Well he presumably won't be getting any help from region or central office, but whether that makes a difference depends on how much he was getting anyway. I am doubtful they can beat him. Recall that the Tories almost won Brecon & Radnor in the 2019 by-election despite the bad apple candidate running again. He was the official Tory candidate and had the party's support. It was also a totally different circumstance. Boris Johnson was in his honeymoon period having become PM just days before and the Tories would lead in every single poll between the B&R by election and the 2019 general election. |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Jun 25, 2024 11:36:46 GMT
Of course it would be totemic since Montgomeryhsire is the only seat never to have elected a Labour MP. It has a fascinating history: Liberal 1880 - 1979, Conservative 1979 - 1983, Liberal/Lib Dem 1983 to 2010; Conservative (with increasingly stupendous momentum) since 2010. Except that the boundary change means it is no longer the same seat. |
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
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Post by Sibboleth on Jun 25, 2024 12:51:51 GMT
Congratulations of a sort to Lembit Öpik who is somehow now no longer the most embarrassing recent representative for Montgomery.
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Post by Rutlander on Jun 25, 2024 13:19:18 GMT
Congratulations of a sort to Lembit Öpik who is somehow now no longer the most embarrassing recent representative for Montgomery. This LD tweet today namechecks Alex Carlile and Emlyn Hooson but omits mention of Öpik; |
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Jun 25, 2024 13:23:16 GMT
Congratulations of a sort to Lembit Öpik who is somehow now no longer the most embarrassing recent representative for Montgomery. This LD tweet today namechecks Alex Carlyle and Emlyn Hooson but omits mention of Öpik; Alex Carlile gave an interview last week where he spoke of the need for the poeple of Montgomeryshire to trust their MPs - in which he name checked Clemant Davies and Emlyn Hooson www.countytimes.co.uk/news/24390001.lord-carlile-tells-craig-williams-explain-election-bet/Lembit isn't connected any more to either Mont (moved away after loosing his seat) and has his membership suspended after speaking at a Conservative conference. |
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Post by Rutlander on Jun 25, 2024 13:35:47 GMT
This LD tweet today namechecks Alex Carlyle and Emlyn Hooson but omits mention of Öpik; Alex Carlile gave an interview last week where he spoke of the need for the poeple of Montgomeryshire to trust their MPs - in which he name checked Clemant Davies and Emlyn Hooson www.countytimes.co.uk/news/24390001.lord-carlile-tells-craig-williams-explain-election-bet/Lembit isn't connected any more to either Mont (moved away after loosing his seat) and has his membership suspended after speaking at a Conservative conference. That Öpik's subject was (if I recall correctly) "how to beat the LibDems" added to the offence |
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johng
Labour
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Post by johng on Jun 25, 2024 13:51:48 GMT
I, like a few others it seems, have changed my vote to Labour gain. The majority on here said Tory hold before today's news broke.
I was unsure before as I thought Williams win, though on a relatively low percentage. He's probably going to come third now.
I am not too sure the Lib Dems referring back to past glory will help. Carlile was last on the ballot in 1992 and a lot of new seat (about 1/3) was not part of the seat then and is basically Wrexham suburbia.
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