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Post by aargauer on Jun 25, 2024 14:05:41 GMT
Im going to go for a lib dem gain. Close for second.
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nodealbrexiteer
Forum Regular
non aligned favour no deal brexit!
Posts: 4,447
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Jun 25, 2024 14:18:44 GMT
Congratulations of a sort to Lembit Öpik who is somehow now no longer the most embarrassing recent representative for Montgomery. amen
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Jun 25, 2024 15:01:44 GMT
Williams: I intend to clear my name
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Post by tonyhil on Jun 25, 2024 16:13:37 GMT
Lembit has written the article on the front of "The Light" - the newspaper for anti-vaxers, Climate Change Deniers, pro-Russia, and assorted conspiracy believers (plus some things that I support, like keeping cash). It basically says vote for anyone other than the Uniparty, in which he includes the Greens, although he noticeably doesn't actually mention the Liberal Democrats.
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observer
Non-Aligned
Posts: 2,528
Member is Online
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Post by observer on Jun 25, 2024 16:14:36 GMT
Lembit has written the article on the front of "The Light" - the newspaper for anti-vaxers, Climate Change Deniers, pro-Russia, and assorted conspiracy believers (plus some things that I support, like keeping cash). It basically says vote for anyone other than the Uniparty, in which he includes the Greens, although he noticeably doesn't actually mention the Liberal Democrats. Opik has grown a lot in common sense
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Jun 25, 2024 16:24:50 GMT
Congratulations of a sort to Lembit Öpik who is somehow now no longer the most embarrassing recent representative for Montgomery. Have you kept up with Öpik's recent endeavours? I think he's still ahead by some way.
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Jun 25, 2024 18:59:24 GMT
Conservative Senedd Member for Montgomeryshire Russel George has ‘stepped back’ from the Shadow Cabinet after confirming he is also under investigation by the gambling commission.
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binky
Non-Aligned
Posts: 63
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Post by binky on Jun 26, 2024 16:32:04 GMT
Conservative Senedd Member for Montgomeryshire Russel George has ‘stepped back’ from the Shadow Cabinet after confirming he is also under investigation by the gambling commission. LibDem byelection gain, maybe?
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Foggy
Non-Aligned
Yn Ennill Yma
Posts: 6,135
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Post by Foggy on Jun 26, 2024 17:33:14 GMT
Conservative Senedd Member for Montgomeryshire Russel George has ‘stepped back’ from the Shadow Cabinet after confirming he is also under investigation by the gambling commission. LibDem byelection gain, maybe? In the case of a Senedd by-election, Plaid were actually in second place in 2021.
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Jun 26, 2024 18:43:58 GMT
Plaid were *just* second place, but second is second. Not sure I could see them mounting the challenge needed. Especially if hypothetically it goes Labour next month. (Seat #31 and all that).
On the subject of a by-election. There’s no recall/removal method in the Senedd so even if he’s guilty, I think he’d serve out the term (less than two years now).
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carlton43
Reform Party
Posts: 50,877
Member is Online
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Post by carlton43 on Jun 26, 2024 20:47:46 GMT
LibDem byelection gain, maybe? In the case of a Senedd by-election, Plaid were actually in second place in 2021. And another one bites the dust. Hey Ho! Hey Ho! Another one bites the dust. Like shooting fish in a barrel now but still fun.
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Post by trickyreturns on Jul 1, 2024 22:08:30 GMT
Drove through a huge chunk of this constituency for the second time in this election today. All of the Tory posters have disappeared. Didn't see a single one.
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Post by iainbhx on Jul 2, 2024 11:24:37 GMT
Drove through a huge chunk of this constituency for the second time in this election today. All of the Tory posters have disappeared. Didn't see a single one. Was in Mach yesterday for work, wouldn‘t have known there was an election on.
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Sg1
Conservative
Posts: 1,084
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Post by Sg1 on Jul 2, 2024 11:28:25 GMT
This could well be Reform's strongest performance in Wales, with a potential second place.
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johng
Labour
Posts: 4,849
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Post by johng on Jul 2, 2024 16:50:32 GMT
This could well be Reform's strongest performance in Wales, with a potential second place.Lol. I'll eat my hat if that happens. I'd place the odds as somewhere between zero and none.
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Sg1
Conservative
Posts: 1,084
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Post by Sg1 on Jul 2, 2024 16:51:37 GMT
This could well be Reform's strongest performance in Wales, with a potential second place.Lol. I'll eat my hat if that happens. I'd place the odds as somewhere between zero and none. I'd have said the same if the Conservative candidate weren't disowned.
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Post by aargauer on Jul 2, 2024 16:58:31 GMT
This could well be Reform's strongest performance in Wales, with a potential second place. Second to who?
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Sg1
Conservative
Posts: 1,084
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Post by Sg1 on Jul 2, 2024 17:14:44 GMT
This could well be Reform's strongest performance in Wales, with a potential second place. Second to who? Labour. Unless there's a Liberal Democrat happening under the radar.
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johng
Labour
Posts: 4,849
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Post by johng on Jul 2, 2024 17:26:57 GMT
Labour. Unless there's a Liberal Democrat happening under the radar. The Lib Dems are definitely campaigning and putting effort in. Plus they have the benefit of being the presumed challenger to the Tories for the slightly informed voter in the Monty side of the seat.
Lib Dems likely second is my guess. Reform 5th or maybe 4th.
Though it's fair to say that this seat is difficult to predict to say these least.
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Sg1
Conservative
Posts: 1,084
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Post by Sg1 on Jul 2, 2024 17:35:53 GMT
Labour. Unless there's a Liberal Democrat happening under the radar. The Lib Dems are definitely campaigning and putting effort in. Plus they have the benefit of being the presumed challenger to the Tories for the slightly informed voter in the Monty side of the seat.
Lib Dems likely second is my guess. Reform 5th or maybe 4th.
Though it's fair to say that this seat is difficult to predict to say these least.
Exactly, it's an unknown quantity due to the strange circumstances at this election. I don't see Reform coming behind Plaid so would likely be 2nd to 4th, but with the Conservative candidate disowned Reform does seem the most likely place for those voters to go. Not everybody will be aware that the Conservative candidate was disowned of course, but I think multiple parties will be stressing that fact to the electorate repeatedly. Nor do I think that Reform have a strong enough ground game to capitalise on that completely.
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