john07
Labour & Co-operative
Posts: 15,774 
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Post by john07 on Aug 27, 2024 19:33:54 GMT
Latest Scottish poll has Reform up 5% to 12% - I wonder if that would project them winning this seat based on those figures... I don’t see a hope in hell of Reform winning a seat in Scotland for the foreseeable future. Both SNP and the Tories are unpopular in Scotland at the moment. That situation is unlikely to occur at the next election. |
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Sg1
Conservative
Posts: 1,084
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Post by Sg1 on Aug 28, 2024 14:07:00 GMT
Opinion polls often seem to overestimate UKIP / Reform in Scotland for some reason. I'd say that 7 percent is close to the ceiling for such a party in Scotland as things stand.
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stb12
Top Poster
Posts: 8,366
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Post by stb12 on Aug 28, 2024 15:15:31 GMT
Opinion polls often seem to overestimate UKIP / Reform in Scotland for some reason. I'd say that 7 percent is close to the ceiling for such a party in Scotland as things stand. 7% was a genuine break through in vote share terms though, UKIP were at their height 2015-2016 time but never got anywhere near that at the General Election or Scottish Parliament elections over those two years. They did win a Scottish MEP in 2014 as did the Brexit Party in 2019 but we all know about the different dynamics there were at European elections |
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Post by uthacalthing on Aug 29, 2024 2:03:29 GMT
The Reform vote is a function of
1/The Tory vote
2/How pissed off the Tory vote is with the Tory party
If the Tories had 60% of the vote in a seat and more than half were pissed off at the Tory party, then Reform could poll 31% - thats how likely Reform is to win a seat
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nyx
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,025
Member is Online
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Post by nyx on Aug 29, 2024 2:18:35 GMT
The Reform vote is a function of 1/The Tory vote 2/How pissed off the Tory vote is with the Tory party If the Tories had 60% of the vote in a seat and more than half were pissed off at the Tory party, then Reform could poll 31% - thats how likely Reform is to win a seat They also have potential to win some Labour votes, e.g. Makerfield is a plausible Reform target seat. But winning SNP votes is unlikely. |
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Post by hullenedge on Aug 30, 2024 14:36:50 GMT
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Post by uthacalthing on Aug 30, 2024 17:31:48 GMT
The SNP won this seat with a majority of 942.
Reform UK polled 5,562 with a really shit candidate. Their campaign was funded by the Tories previous biggest donor.
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