|
|
Post by markgoodair on Jun 26, 2024 14:21:51 GMT
Without the students, Clegg would have won in 2017 and the Lib Dems would have held in 2019. If you simply remove their raw vote, this is surely a three-way marginal in 2019 because of the Tory over-performance in Stannington which voted to Leave while the seat was 66% Remain overall. Stannington is beautiful, but in a different way to the more yummy mummy Dore. You have delightful sheep farming areas and High and Low Bradfield with a class brewery. There are far better breweries than Bradfield. |
|
YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,915
|
Post by YL on Jun 27, 2024 7:55:14 GMT
I think that if you look at the demographics in a bit more detail the relative weakness of the Conservatives here is not that surprising. |
|
|
|
Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Jul 4, 2024 8:36:19 GMT
I think Labour will probably just win Sheffield Hallam, but I don't think its a given, especially if Conservatives and Greens lend their votes to the Liberal Democrats.
I am content to have voted SDP as they align with a lot, though not all, of my current political thoughts. I also don't mind if Labour or the Liberal Democrats win in Sheffield Hallam as Shaffaq Mohammed has persuaded me he'd make as good an MP for the constituency as Olivia Blake has been.
|
|
iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,453 
|
Post by iain on Jul 4, 2024 23:08:51 GMT
|
|
YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,915
|
Post by YL on Jul 4, 2024 23:11:12 GMT
Presumably not close if it's being called already.
|
|
stb12
Top Poster
Posts: 8,409
|
Post by stb12 on Jul 4, 2024 23:51:29 GMT
Tory vote gone heavily Lib Dem if that’s the case
|
|
|
|
Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Jul 4, 2024 23:57:04 GMT
Tory vote gone heavily Lib Dem if that’s the case Wouldn't be totally surprised, especially as no Reform candidate. Heavily is not really what i have been expecting. Shaffaq has a good local reputation for getting things done, so that may well have picked up votes too. |
|
iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,453
|
Post by iain on Jul 5, 2024 1:03:54 GMT
Labour now say they will hold Hallam.
|
|
YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,915
|
Post by YL on Jul 5, 2024 3:29:19 GMT
Comfortable Labour hold in the end: 23875 to 15686 for the Lib Dems
|
|
|
|
Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Jul 5, 2024 6:29:56 GMT
Comfortable Labour hold in the end: 23875 to 15686 for the Lib Dems Much bigger majority than I was expecting. It looks like direct Conservative to Labour switching. Hmmmm. |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 5, 2024 6:30:58 GMT
Lib Dems fading further we get from Clegg's tenure.
|
|
|
|
Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Jul 5, 2024 7:33:31 GMT
Lib Dems fading further we get from Clegg's tenure.
I think it was the national tide that made the majority so big.
|
|
john07
Labour & Co-operative
Posts: 15,832
|
Post by john07 on Jul 5, 2024 12:28:25 GMT
Comfortable Labour hold in the end: 23875 to 15686 for the Lib Dems Where did the Lib Dem hype come from? |
|
YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,915
|
Post by YL on Jul 5, 2024 12:32:34 GMT
Comfortable Labour hold in the end: 23875 to 15686 for the Lib Dems Where did the Lib Dem hype come from? Dunno, maybe the Dore and Fulwood boxes were opened first? |
|
YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,915
|
Post by YL on Jul 7, 2024 7:33:08 GMT
This was an excellent result for Labour, and I think Olivia Blake has to take some credit for that. They substantially outperformed their national vote share and got their best result ever in the seat. Of course it is still not safe and the Lib Dems will still be targeting it, though they should note that even if the entire Tory vote had shifted to them they would still have lost; they will have to get votes from Labour, and maybe the Greens, who performed quite strongly.
The Tory vote share was their lowest ever in the constituency, and here they certainly cannot blame Reform UK. Even 30 years ago the idea that the Tories would be on only 12% here, even in a terrible election for them nationally, would have been unbelievable.
|
|
YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,915
|
Post by YL on Aug 7, 2024 17:22:59 GMT
Ben Walker's model has Labour carrying all five wards here, even Dore & Totley, but sometimes I suspect it underestimates variation within constituencies. Thoughts?
|
|
iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,453
|
Post by iain on Aug 7, 2024 19:50:15 GMT
I'm pretty sure the Lib Dems will still have carried Dore & Totley. Labour will probably have won Fulwood for the first time though.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Aug 7, 2024 19:54:31 GMT
I'm pretty sure the Lib Dems will still have carried Dore & Totley. Labour will probably have won Fulwood for the first time though. In 1997, the Tories still would have carried Dore & Totley as I recall, while the Lib Dems won the rest so this result is sort of similar in a way and speaks to how effectively the Lib Dems cannibalised the old Conservative vote in Hallam. |
|
|
|
Post by mattbewilson on Aug 7, 2024 20:27:20 GMT
I'm pretty sure the Lib Dems will still have carried Dore & Totley. Labour will probably have won Fulwood for the first time though. I agree |
|
jamie
Top Poster
Posts: 7,069
|
Post by jamie on Aug 7, 2024 22:17:37 GMT
Ben Walker's model has Labour carrying all five wards here, even Dore & Totley, but sometimes I suspect it underestimates variation within constituencies. Thoughts? Not a local, but I’ve been (slowly) doing some notionals, and I still have the Lib Dems winning Dore and Totley narrowly. It has about the same lean vs the constituency as Crookes and Crosspool in the opposite direction, with the other 3 wards presumably closeish to the constituency wide result (Stannington, Ecclesall, Fulwood, in the order of the Labour margin). Of course, the Labour lead is big enough, and compared to the past flat enough, that it’s plausible somewhere like Dore and Totley voted for them. |
|
