Sg1
Conservative
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Post by Sg1 on Apr 5, 2024 16:15:38 GMT
Which seats were Labour speculated to lose against the trend? As I recall there was a bit of speculation about Bradford West in the run-up to 1997. It was Marsha Singh's first election and it was considered possible that Muslim voters would not vote for him but would back the Conservative candidate Mohammed Riaz who was a Muslim and a former Labour councillor who switched to the Tories in 1990 during the Eric Pickles shenanigans. Singh was also opposed by two left wing Muslims. The Labour vote dropped sharply, and at odds with nearly everywhere else in the country, but Singh held the seat. Didn't John Major campaign here at one point? |
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
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Post by Sibboleth on Apr 5, 2024 16:40:39 GMT
There were also some against-the-grain losses and tight calls in local elections, which got people jittery.
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YL
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Post by YL on Apr 5, 2024 16:48:40 GMT
Not as simple as that, the more students who are registered the better for Labour, so when the election is will be a factor. Generally the Labour Council is a negative and Labour has fallen back in Sheffield over the last couple of years. It will be close likely a Labour hold, but they definitely aren't taking that for granted.
Though how often does council unpopularity seriously affect GE results? There are instances of it happening, but they are not as common as you might expect. And whilst there are possible "against the trend" Labour losses at the coming GE (to the LibDems here, Greens in Bristol Central and maybe even the Tories in Leicester East) it is maybe worth remembering that at the last Labour "wave" election - 1997 - there were none at all despite some speculation otherwise beforehand. I don't think the Council is any more unpopular now than it was in 2017 (trees!) and 2019 and it didn't stop Labour winning then. |
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Post by batman on Apr 5, 2024 19:39:53 GMT
As far as I know the main danger in Leicester East is losing to an independent Keith Vaz run, not the Tories, though the latter can't be entirely ruled out if for some reason Keith Vaz doesn't run. I suppose the main other seats at risk for a notional loss are Rochdale to the Worker's Party, and potentially Islington North to Independent. I wouldn't entirely rule out Hartlepool to Reform, but it's less likely. there's a lot of talk about this, but at present a ) Keith Vaz is still a member of the Labour Party and b ) has not said that he will run. I can only presume there's a good reason for all this speculation, but I haven't heard any evidence myself. |
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Apr 5, 2024 19:50:17 GMT
Though how often does council unpopularity seriously affect GE results? There are instances of it happening, but they are not as common as you might expect. And whilst there are possible "against the trend" Labour losses at the coming GE (to the LibDems here, Greens in Bristol Central and maybe even the Tories in Leicester East) it is maybe worth remembering that at the last Labour "wave" election - 1997 - there were none at all despite some speculation otherwise beforehand. I don't think the Council is any more unpopular now than it was in 2017 (trees!) and 2019 and it didn't stop Labour winning then. True. The council, Labour is more unpopular than in 21 and 22 which is what I meant by the last couple of years, not necessarily than in 17 or 19. I also said that I still expected Labour to win, from the tone of many of the replies you'd think differently. |
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nyx
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Post by nyx on Apr 5, 2024 21:56:17 GMT
As far as I know the main danger in Leicester East is losing to an independent Keith Vaz run, not the Tories, though the latter can't be entirely ruled out if for some reason Keith Vaz doesn't run. I suppose the main other seats at risk for a notional loss are Rochdale to the Worker's Party, and potentially Islington North to Independent. I wouldn't entirely rule out Hartlepool to Reform, but it's less likely. there's a lot of talk about this, but at present a ) Keith Vaz is still a member of the Labour Party and b ) has not said that he will run. I can only presume there's a good reason for all this speculation, but I haven't heard any evidence myself. I'm friends with someone very involved in Leicester politics who told me it's almost certain Keith Vaz runs. |
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Post by johnloony on Apr 5, 2024 23:20:33 GMT
there's a lot of talk about this, but at present a ) Keith Vaz is still a member of the Labour Party and b ) has not said that he will run. I can only presume there's a good reason for all this speculation, but I haven't heard any evidence myself. I'm friends with someone very involved in Leicester politics who told me it's almost certain Keith Vaz runs. Even if Keith Vaz did stand as a candidate, why on Earth would it matter? Shurely he wouldn’t get any more than a derisory tiny share of the votes? He’s a veteran has-been who was worn out years ago (in terms of health as well as politics). Or is there something else that I don’t know about? |
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nyx
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Post by nyx on Apr 5, 2024 23:49:24 GMT
I'm friends with someone very involved in Leicester politics who told me it's almost certain Keith Vaz runs. Even if Keith Vaz did stand as a candidate, why on Earth would it matter? Shurely he wouldn’t get any more than a derisory tiny share of the votes? He’s a veteran has-been who was worn out years ago (in terms of health as well as politics). Or is there something else that I don’t know about? Ethnic politics, the Labour mayor Peter Soulsby has upset a lot of people and specifically the deselection of a lot of Labour councillors of Asian descent was controversial. Leicester East is somewhere that ethnic based politics is absolutely crucial– the Tories have been gaining substantially from this but Gaza has likely hurt for them. Look at the results of the 2023 local election in Leicester, Labour fell back from 53 of 54 seats in 2019 to only 31 seats in 2023. What this means is that all Keith Vaz would need is the endorsement of prominent figures in the community (easy enough, he's reasonably popular amongst both Muslims and Hindus) and it's likely that both Labour and the Tories would rapidly hemorrhage voters. I'm not sure what will happen if he doesn't stand for some reason (e.g. health) though. Pre-Gaza I'd have said the Tories have a shot, but that will probably have hurt them a lot. Perhaps another independent would emerge, or perhaps there would just be a low turnout Labour hold. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Apr 6, 2024 10:08:24 GMT
Which seats were Labour speculated to lose against the trend? In the run up to the 1997 GE the SNP let it be known they were targeting three Labour held seats - Glasgow Govan, Kilmarnock and the redrawn Ochil. Plaid Cymru targeted the redrawn Carmarthen seat (and a rematch in its pre-1997 incarnation might have been *very* close) I also recall Tony Benn admitting in his diaries that he was quite worried about holding Chesterfield in the face of a determined LibDem challenge. The last two seats did fall in 2001, of course. |
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Sg1
Conservative
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Post by Sg1 on Apr 6, 2024 10:40:44 GMT
Which seats were Labour speculated to lose against the trend? In the run up to the 1997 GE the SNP let it be known they were targeting three Labour held seats - Glasgow Govan, Kilmarnock and the redrawn Ochil. Plaid Cymru targeted the redrawn Carmarthen seat (and a rematch in its pre-1997 incarnation might have been *very* close) I also recall Tony Benn admitting in his diaries that he was quite worried about holding Chesterfield in the face of a determined LibDem challenge. The last two seats did fall in 2001, of course. I was surprised to see that there was actually a swing to the SNP in Govan that year. I wonder what the young SNP hopeful went on to do... |
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The Bishop
Labour
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Post by The Bishop on Apr 6, 2024 10:42:25 GMT
Sarwar senior's selection there had been messy and controversial.
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YL
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Post by YL on Apr 7, 2024 7:46:12 GMT
I think there are three main reasons why some people think Labour might lose here:
(a) Some MRPs/models show it close or with the Lib Dems ahead.
(b) Lib Dems hope that they can squeeze the Tory vote.
(c) The demographic nature of the Labour vote here -- it's unusually middle class and the student vote is quite important -- and a feeling that Labour is not doing so well with those demographics relative to 2019 as it is generally.
Note that the MRPs we've had so far haven't had sample sizes large enough to pick up constituency level effects, so all (a) is doing is giving some support to (c): at least according to those models Labour isn't doing especially well with the sort of demographics found in Hallam, and the national swing seen from the Lib Dems to Labour in polls might not be found here. Note that not all MRPs show this effect, so it's hard to have confidence in it, but it does make some intuitive sense.
I am personally a little sceptical of (b) making a big difference. The Lib Dems did squeeze the Tory vote very successfully in 2015, but they tried hard to do so again in 2017 and 2019 and it didn't work. The failures in 2017 and 2019 were no doubt partly to do with the salience of Brexit in those elections -- although Hallam as a whole was fairly strongly Remain that residual Tory vote was probably not -- and that might give the Lib Dems some hope, but the success in 2015 surely had a lot to do with the Coalition situation and Nick Clegg's personal appeal to Tory supporters in that context. Nothing like that is going to be true this time, and it's still not obvious to me that that residual Tory vote is going to have a very strong preference for the Lib Dems over Labour. The Tory vote is of course likely to go down following the national swing, but some of that fall may go straight to Labour or of course to Reform UK, not that I'd expect them to be a big factor here.
On the other hand I think there may be something to (c). Labour did historically well here in 2017 and 2019; they'd never won the seat before and had never been competitive before 2015 (when they would have won had it not been for "Tories for Clegg"). Places where Labour did well in 2019 might be less likely to swing further towards them. And it really is an outlier demographically among Labour seats (by far the least deprived, for example) so it might not behave typically. If there is a problem getting students registered in time for an October election, or if the election is in late June or July when the students are mostly not here, that's not great for Labour, and the Lib Dems are presumably less unpopular among students than in the immediate aftermath of the Coalition anyway.
In Labour's favour they are well organised and active, which I don't think the MRPs know about, and Olivia Blake seems to go down pretty well. Their organisation might negate any problem with student registration. And not all modelling shows a problem for them anyway.
If I had to guess I would go with a Labour hold, but there are reasons for uncertainty.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Apr 7, 2024 9:19:09 GMT
I don't think the Council is any more unpopular now than it was in 2017 (trees!) and 2019 and it didn't stop Labour winning then. True. The council, Labour is more unpopular than in 21 and 22 which is what I meant by the last couple of years, not necessarily than in 17 or 19. I also said that I still expected Labour to win, from the tone of many of the replies you'd think differently.Not to worry, your comments sparked off an interesting discussion which is the raison d'etre of this place  |
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iain
Lib Dem
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Post by iain on Apr 7, 2024 9:37:45 GMT
I am personally a little sceptical of (b) making a big difference. The Lib Dems did squeeze the Tory vote very successfully in 2015, but they tried hard to do so again in 2017 and 2019 and it didn't work. The failures in 2017 and 2019 were no doubt partly to do with the salience of Brexit in those elections -- although Hallam as a whole was fairly strongly Remain that residual Tory vote was probably not -- and that might give the Lib Dems some hope, but the success in 2015 surely had a lot to do with the Coalition situation and Nick Clegg's personal appeal to Tory supporters in that context. Nothing like that is going to be true this time, and it's still not obvious to me that that residual Tory vote is going to have a very strong preference for the Lib Dems over Labour. The Tory vote is of course likely to go down following the national swing, but some of that fall may go straight to Labour or of course to Reform UK, not that I'd expect them to be a big factor here. I think this misses the nature of the Tory vote in 2017 and 2019. What had been squeezed in 2015 stayed with the Lib Dems to a large extent (and I think by this point has largely been converted as opposed to still being squeezed), but traditional Lib Dem supporters in the less well off areas of the seat switched to the Conservatives over Brexit. The current Conservative vote actually has a rather large component of formerly reliable Lib Dem voters. All that said, I do not necessarily disagree with your conclusion that it isn't obvious that these voters will have a strong preference for the Lib Dems over Labour at this point in time. |
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Post by johnloony on Apr 7, 2024 10:13:36 GMT
I think there are three main reasons why some people think Labour might lose here: (a) Some MRPs/models show it close or with the Lib Dems ahead. (b) Lib Dems hope that they can squeeze the Tory vote. (c) The demographic nature of the Labour vote here -- it's unusually middle class and the student vote is quite important -- and a feeling that Labour is not doing so well with those demographics relative to 2019 as it is generally. Note that the MRPs we've had so far haven't had sample sizes large enough to pick up constituency level effects, so all (a) is doing is giving some support to (c): at least according to those models Labour isn't doing especially well with the sort of demographics found in Hallam, and the national swing seen from the Lib Dems to Labour in polls might not be found here. Note that not all MRPs show this effect, so it's hard to have confidence in it, but it does make some intuitive sense. I am personally a little sceptical of (b) making a big difference. The Lib Dems did squeeze the Tory vote very successfully in 2015, but they tried hard to do so again in 2017 and 2019 and it didn't work. The failures in 2017 and 2019 were no doubt partly to do with the salience of Brexit in those elections -- although Hallam as a whole was fairly strongly Remain that residual Tory vote was probably not -- and that might give the Lib Dems some hope, but the success in 2015 surely had a lot to do with the Coalition situation and Nick Clegg's personal appeal to Tory supporters in that context. Nothing like that is going to be true this time, and it's still not obvious to me that that residual Tory vote is going to have a very strong preference for the Lib Dems over Labour. The Tory vote is of course likely to go down following the national swing, but some of that fall may go straight to Labour or of course to Reform UK, not that I'd expect them to be a big factor here. On the other hand I think there may be something to (c). Labour did historically well here in 2017 and 2019; they'd never won the seat before and had never been competitive before 2015 (when they would have won had it not been for "Tories for Clegg"). Places where Labour did well in 2019 might be less likely to swing further towards them. And it really is an outlier demographically among Labour seats (by far the least deprived, for example) so it might not behave typically. If there is a problem getting students registered in time for an October election, or if the election is in late June or July when the students are mostly not here, that's not great for Labour, and the Lib Dems are presumably less unpopular among students than in the immediate aftermath of the Coalition anyway. In Labour's favour they are well organised and active, which I don't think the MRPs know about, and Olivia Blake seems to go down pretty well. Their organisation might negate any problem with student registration. And not all modelling shows a problem for them anyway. If I had to guess I would go with a Labour hold, but there are reasons for uncertainty. If the Green Party can win in Bristol Central then the Lib Dems can win in Hallam |
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right
Conservative
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Post by right on Apr 7, 2024 19:56:56 GMT
As I recall there was a bit of speculation about Bradford West in the run-up to 1997. It was Marsha Singh's first election and it was considered possible that Muslim voters would not vote for him but would back the Conservative candidate Mohammed Riaz who was a Muslim and a former Labour councillor who switched to the Tories in 1990 during the Eric Pickles shenanigans. Singh was also opposed by two left wing Muslims. The Labour vote dropped sharply, and at odds with nearly everywhere else in the country, but Singh held the seat. Didn't John Major campaign here at one point? One of the Tower Hamlet seats got a massive boost to the Tory vote through Sylheti community politics but wasn't ever in danger of going blue. Heseltine campaigned there, but because there was no danger probably escaped from association with methods not featured in the Conservative Agent curriculum. I kept track of the candidate expecting to see him have a bite at a more winnable seat but apart from backing Jeffrey Archer's candidacy for the Tory slot for mayor and featuring in some weird way in Sven Goran Eriksson's divorce he never really built on that. Didn't another Bradford seat also increase their Tory vote in 97? |
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graham
Non-Aligned
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Post by graham on Apr 7, 2024 20:10:12 GMT
I think there are three main reasons why some people think Labour might lose here: (a) Some MRPs/models show it close or with the Lib Dems ahead. (b) Lib Dems hope that they can squeeze the Tory vote. (c) The demographic nature of the Labour vote here -- it's unusually middle class and the student vote is quite important -- and a feeling that Labour is not doing so well with those demographics relative to 2019 as it is generally. Note that the MRPs we've had so far haven't had sample sizes large enough to pick up constituency level effects, so all (a) is doing is giving some support to (c): at least according to those models Labour isn't doing especially well with the sort of demographics found in Hallam, and the national swing seen from the Lib Dems to Labour in polls might not be found here. Note that not all MRPs show this effect, so it's hard to have confidence in it, but it does make some intuitive sense. I am personally a little sceptical of (b) making a big difference. The Lib Dems did squeeze the Tory vote very successfully in 2015, but they tried hard to do so again in 2017 and 2019 and it didn't work. The failures in 2017 and 2019 were no doubt partly to do with the salience of Brexit in those elections -- although Hallam as a whole was fairly strongly Remain that residual Tory vote was probably not -- and that might give the Lib Dems some hope, but the success in 2015 surely had a lot to do with the Coalition situation and Nick Clegg's personal appeal to Tory supporters in that context. Nothing like that is going to be true this time, and it's still not obvious to me that that residual Tory vote is going to have a very strong preference for the Lib Dems over Labour. The Tory vote is of course likely to go down following the national swing, but some of that fall may go straight to Labour or of course to Reform UK, not that I'd expect them to be a big factor here. On the other hand I think there may be something to (c). Labour did historically well here in 2017 and 2019; they'd never won the seat before and had never been competitive before 2015 (when they would have won had it not been for "Tories for Clegg"). Places where Labour did well in 2019 might be less likely to swing further towards them. And it really is an outlier demographically among Labour seats (by far the least deprived, for example) so it might not behave typically. If there is a problem getting students registered in time for an October election, or if the election is in late June or July when the students are mostly not here, that's not great for Labour, and the Lib Dems are presumably less unpopular among students than in the immediate aftermath of the Coalition anyway. In Labour's favour they are well organised and active, which I don't think the MRPs know about, and Olivia Blake seems to go down pretty well. Their organisation might negate any problem with student registration. And not all modelling shows a problem for them anyway. If I had to guess I would go with a Labour hold, but there are reasons for uncertainty. If the Green Party can win in Bristol Central then the Lib Dems can win in Hallam I expect Labour to win Bristol Central by at least 10,000 votes. |
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Post by carlton43 on Apr 7, 2024 20:55:30 GMT
I think that Labour will win the Brighton, Bristol and Sheffield seats.
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Post by johnloony on Apr 7, 2024 22:34:37 GMT
If the Green Party can win in Bristol Central then the Lib Dems can win in Hallam I expect Labour to win Bristol Central by at least 10,000 votes. So do I. |
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The Bishop
Labour
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Post by The Bishop on Apr 8, 2024 10:59:12 GMT
Didn't another Bradford seat also increase their Tory vote in 97? No, but this is quite a common misconception - due to the Bradford South result being widely reported thus in newspapers immediately after the election. This is because they got their swing from the 1994 byelection (IIRC it was one of the unchanged seats at that election) rather than 1992 - it actually had a similar swing from that to Bradford North. There were famously only two seats that swung to the Tories in that election - Bethnal Green and Bow and Bradford West. However in the latter the actual Tory share was slightly down on 1992 (Labour were of course down by a lot more) The only other seat than BG&B where the Tories increased their 1992 share was fractionally in Greenwich and Woolwich - where the sizeable previous SDP vote basically vanished and Labour got a massive majority. |
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