graham
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Post by graham on Apr 4, 2024 13:23:40 GMT
MRP seems a bit off there given that Labour polled 34.6% in 2019 and 38.4% in 2017.I would expect over 40% now.
Not as simple as that, the more students who are registered the better for Labour, so when the election is will be a factor. Generally the Labour Council is a negative and Labour has fallen back in Sheffield over the last couple of years. It will be close likely a Labour hold, but they definitely aren't taking that for granted.
But I would expect the new MP to receive an incumbency boost. Difficult to see the LDs winning when they failed to do so in 2019 when Labour was weighed down by the former MP. |
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Post by batman on Apr 4, 2024 13:44:45 GMT
Surely you're experienced enough to know that there are always seats at every election which buck the trend, for one reason or another. This is the only seat the Lib Dems can gain from Labour with a small swing in Britain. As such they're bound to target it strongly, and there may be other local factors working against Labour too. The Lib Dems can afford to send huge resources into this seat, whereas Labour has nearby, indeed directly neighbouring, seats it needs to gain. Labour may well hold on here but it clearly isn't going to be easy.
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graham
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Post by graham on Apr 4, 2024 14:59:34 GMT
Surely you're experienced enough to know that there are always seats at every election which buck the trend, for one reason or another. This is the only seat the Lib Dems can gain from Labour with a small swing in Britain. As such they're bound to target it strongly, and there may be other local factors working against Labour too. The Lib Dems can afford to send huge resources into this seat, whereas Labour has nearby, indeed directly neighbouring, seats it needs to gain. Labour may well hold on here but it clearly isn't going to be easy. Indeed - but the LDs had far more going for them in 2019 given Labour's weakness nationally and the appalling reputation of the former Labour MP. None of that will be true this year and new MPs tend to get a first term incumbency boost - particularly when their party is advancing nationally. If any thing, the LDs have lost ground nationally since 2019. |
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Post by batman on Apr 4, 2024 15:52:50 GMT
That's true - logically it should be an easy Labour hold, but sometimes seats defy logic. It's all part of the excitement of electoral politics
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graham
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Post by graham on Apr 4, 2024 15:56:20 GMT
That's true - logically it should be an easy Labour hold, but sometimes seats defy logic. It's all part of the excitement of electoral politics There is certainly the possibility of a LD gain - comparable to the Liberals winning Colne Valley in 1966. |
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Apr 4, 2024 16:10:22 GMT
Whilst I agree there’s a chance of a Lib Dem gain here, the events of 60 years ago in another seat whilst interesting completely irrelevant here in 2024.
Do you intend on including a historical comparison from c. half a century ago in all your posts?
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on Apr 4, 2024 16:27:06 GMT
Surely you're experienced enough to know that there are always seats at every election which buck the trend, for one reason or another. This is the only seat the Lib Dems can gain from Labour with a small swing in Britain. As such they're bound to target it strongly, and there may be other local factors working against Labour too. The Lib Dems can afford to send huge resources into this seat, whereas Labour has nearby, indeed directly neighbouring, seats it needs to gain. Labour may well hold on here but it clearly isn't going to be easy. Indeed - but the LDs had far more going for them in 2019 given Labour's weakness nationally and the appalling reputation of the former Labour MP. None of that will be true this year and new MPs tend to get a first term incumbency boost - particularly when their party is advancing nationally. If any thing, the LDs have lost ground nationally since 2019. Again though it’s a very unusual South Yorkshire seat, you like your history and Labour had never even been near winning it until 2015 with it being a traditional affluent Tory area that the Lib Dems could appeal to While there’s clearly been a quick trend to Labour which was helped by the coalition there’s most probably still a lower ceiling for them than elsewhere in the region, the two wins in 2017 and 2019 were with under 40% of the vote There’s a 26% Tory vote from last time that has the potential to be squeezed, the Lib Dems might be in a weaker position nationally but we’ve also seen that they’re becoming more appealing to Tory voters again in areas where they’ve traditionally challenged them. That’s not to say Labour won’t hold but it’s a prime contender for somewhere to buck the trend so wouldn’t be so certain about it |
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iang
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Post by iang on Apr 4, 2024 16:37:21 GMT
Actually to be fair to graham, I think the Colne Valley analogy is potentially valid. It was Labour's only loss in 1966 in an election where they won a landslide victory, and because the locally active Liberals were able to squeeze the Tory vote. So IF it were to happen, it would be bucking the trend in an analogous way. It is certainly one of the very few seats this time where there will be a direct Lab / LD contest |
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Post by andrewp on Apr 4, 2024 16:44:56 GMT
I don’t think it’s the most likely outcome, but it’s possible to make a case for an LD gain here, and unless something big changes, , this is the only possibility of a Labour loss.
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Post by gwynthegriff on Apr 4, 2024 17:30:23 GMT
It’s a bit of an unusual seat though in the sense that there is quite a significant three way split, the Tories seem to have fallen out of the running to win it but their vote is still significant Labour have clearly made a lot of progress since the Clegg factor in 2015 but unless demographic changes have been that huge then they probably have a lower ceiling here compared to pretty much anywhere else in South Yorkshire I would expect the LD to Labour switching reflected in national polling to occur here. Also a first term incumbency boost is likely for the new MP. I can understand a first term incumbency boost where there is a change of party (the previous party has to close down its constituency structure; new party creates one) but not so much for a change of MP, but same party. |
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graham
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Post by graham on Apr 4, 2024 17:50:42 GMT
Whilst I agree there’s a chance of a Lib Dem gain here, the events of 60 years ago in another seat whilst interesting completely irrelevant here in 2024. Do you intend on including a historical comparison from c. half a century ago in all your posts? The point is that 1966 was a year of a Labour landslide with Harold Wilson winning a majority of 97. Colne Valley was the party's only loss against the national tide. |
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Post by johnloony on Apr 4, 2024 17:50:51 GMT
Actually to be fair to graham, I think the Colne Valley analogy is potentially valid. It was Labour's only loss in 1966 in an election where they won a landslide victory, and because the locally active Liberals were able to squeeze the Tory vote. So IF it were to happen, it would be bucking the trend in an analogous way. It is certainly one of the very few seats this time where there will be a direct Lab / LD contest Similar examples (local election results presaging parliamentary victory) would be the Green Party winning Brighton Pavilion in 2010 (and Bristol Central in 2024) and the Communist Party of GB winning Stepney Mile End in 1945. |
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Post by batman on Apr 4, 2024 19:47:38 GMT
Whilst I agree there’s a chance of a Lib Dem gain here, the events of 60 years ago in another seat whilst interesting completely irrelevant here in 2024. Do you intend on including a historical comparison from c. half a century ago in all your posts? yes |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Apr 5, 2024 11:01:54 GMT
MRP seems a bit off there given that Labour polled 34.6% in 2019 and 38.4% in 2017.I would expect over 40% now. Not as simple as that, the more students who are registered the better for Labour, so when the election is will be a factor. Generally the Labour Council is a negative and Labour has fallen back in Sheffield over the last couple of years. It will be close likely a Labour hold, but they definitely aren't taking that for granted.
Though how often does council unpopularity seriously affect GE results? There are instances of it happening, but they are not as common as you might expect. And whilst there are possible "against the trend" Labour losses at the coming GE (to the LibDems here, Greens in Bristol Central and maybe even the Tories in Leicester East) it is maybe worth remembering that at the last Labour "wave" election - 1997 - there were none at all despite some speculation otherwise beforehand. |
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on Apr 5, 2024 11:10:55 GMT
Not as simple as that, the more students who are registered the better for Labour, so when the election is will be a factor. Generally the Labour Council is a negative and Labour has fallen back in Sheffield over the last couple of years. It will be close likely a Labour hold, but they definitely aren't taking that for granted.
Though how often does council unpopularity seriously affect GE results? There are instances of it happening, but they are not as common as you might expect. And whilst there are possible "against the trend" Labour losses at the coming GE (to the LibDems here, Greens in Bristol Central and maybe even the Tories in Leicester East) it is maybe worth remembering that at the last Labour "wave" election - 1997 - there were none at all despite some speculation otherwise beforehand. Although there were probably seats that with the level of landslide they’d should have in theory gained but didn’t? |
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Sg1
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Post by Sg1 on Apr 5, 2024 13:48:06 GMT
Though how often does council unpopularity seriously affect GE results? There are instances of it happening, but they are not as common as you might expect. And whilst there are possible "against the trend" Labour losses at the coming GE (to the LibDems here, Greens in Bristol Central and maybe even the Tories in Leicester East) it is maybe worth remembering that at the last Labour "wave" election - 1997 - there were none at all despite some speculation otherwise beforehand. Although there were probably seats that with the level of landslide they’d should have in theory gained but didn’t? Aldridge-Brownhills comes to mind for 1997. |
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Post by ClevelandYorks on Apr 5, 2024 15:14:19 GMT
Which seats were Labour speculated to lose against the trend?
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nyx
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Post by nyx on Apr 5, 2024 16:07:20 GMT
As far as I know the main danger in Leicester East is losing to an independent Keith Vaz run, not the Tories, though the latter can't be entirely ruled out if for some reason Keith Vaz doesn't run. I suppose the main other seats at risk for a notional loss are Rochdale to the Worker's Party, and potentially Islington North to Independent. I wouldn't entirely rule out Hartlepool to Reform, but it's less likely. |
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mrtoad
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Post by mrtoad on Apr 5, 2024 16:11:44 GMT
Which seats were Labour speculated to lose against the trend? As I recall there was a bit of speculation about Bradford West in the run-up to 1997. It was Marsha Singh's first election and it was considered possible that Muslim voters would not vote for him but would back the Conservative candidate Mohammed Riaz who was a Muslim and a former Labour councillor who switched to the Tories in 1990 during the Eric Pickles shenanigans. Singh was also opposed by two left wing Muslims. The Labour vote dropped sharply, and at odds with nearly everywhere else in the country, but Singh held the seat. |
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Sg1
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Post by Sg1 on Apr 5, 2024 16:15:06 GMT
As far as I know the main danger in Leicester East is losing to an independent Keith Vaz run, not the Tories, though the latter can't be entirely ruled out if for some reason Keith Vaz doesn't run. I suppose the main other seats at risk for a notional loss are Rochdale to the Worker's Party, and potentially Islington North to Independent. I wouldn't entirely rule out Hartlepool to Reform, but it's less likely. Or potentially Tories coming through the middle in the event of Keith Vaz running perhaps? Whoever wins Leicester East could plausibly do so on a lower percentage of the vote than in 2019. |
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