Sheffield Hallam

[stb12]

Sheffield Hallam

[YL]

Almanac profile

Candidates

Olivia Blake* (Lab)
Sam Chapman (Rejoin EU)
Andrew Cowell (SDP)
Isaac Howarth (Con)
Jason Leman (Green)
Shaffaq Mohammed (Lib Dem)
Mohammed Moui-Tabrizy (Workers Party)

[YL]

Electoral Calculus has been showing the Lib Dems regaining this seat, based I think on their MRP modelling. They are certainly trying (six pieces of paper through my door so far this year) but so are Labour (less paper but a lot of door knocking going on).

[iain]

Mar 14, 2024 21:28:37 GMT YL said:

Electoral Calculus has been showing the Lib Dems regaining this seat, based I think on their MRP modelling. They are certainly trying (six pieces of paper through my door so far this year) but so are Labour (less paper but a lot of door knocking going on).

We certainly are trying, but you have the double whammy (IIRC) of also living in an ultra-marginal ward!

[mattbewilson]

It's a hard constituency to really nail down. I'm remember in 2018 into 2019 thinking it felt like a nailed on lib dem gain. Often wondering why we were working so hard.

It's probably the only constituency in Sheffield that can basically run it's own campaign. There was a noticeable difference in Penistone and Stocksbridge which in 2019 was run entirely by Sheffield central.

Even today while Marie has done a fantastic job in turning things around in a Penistone and Stocksbridge, Sheffield central bus up activists for as the twinned seats. I wish other places got the kind of support Sheffield central give.

It was clear though in the last couple of weeks in Hallam that we'd probably won it. While Penistone and Stocksbridge ran out of leaflets and couldn't seem to organise rounds very well, Hallam were smashing out rounds in every ward three times and day.

Even in the stannington by election they were out all the time. Be interesting to know the vote splitting data they picked up

It was clearly a place that had a large contingent that were fairly Corbyn friendly. Oliver Coppard told me 39% of the ward was student and public sector worker.

[stb12]

Comes down to where the big Tory vote goes as that will surely decline given the national picture, if the Lib Dems benefit mainly from it then they probably will gain the seat even with Labour having a great night nationally

[YL]

Mar 18, 2024 10:37:25 GMT stb12 said:

Comes down to where the big Tory vote goes as that will surely decline given the national picture, if the Lib Dems benefit mainly from it then they probably will gain the seat even with Labour having a great night nationally

Yes, though I doubt that it will break Lib Dem by enough to put Labour out of contention.

One other way Labour could have problems here is that they have been doing very well with the student vote and if that weakens (or if there are problems getting students registered in time for an October election — there is a Guardian article about this today) that would help the Lib Dems a little.

[graham]

Given the failure of the LDs to win the seat back in 2019 when Labour was weighed down by the Jared O'Mara factor plus the bleak national picture, it strikes me as highly unlikely that Labour will lose the seat under current polling conditions. An increased majority here has to be much more likely.

[stb12]

Mar 23, 2024 16:47:01 GMT graham said:

Given the failure of the LDs to win the seat back in 2019 when Labour was weighed down by the Jared O'Mara factor plus the bleak national picture, it strikes me as highly unlikely that Labour will lose the seat under current polling conditions. An increased majority here has to be much more likely.

It’s a bit of an unusual seat though in the sense that there is quite a significant three way split, the Tories seem to have fallen out of the running to win it but their vote is still significant

Labour have clearly made a lot of progress since the Clegg factor in 2015 but unless demographic changes have been that huge then they probably have a lower ceiling here compared to pretty much anywhere else in South Yorkshire

[graham]

Mar 23, 2024 16:53:15 GMT stb12 said:

Mar 23, 2024 16:47:01 GMT graham said:

Given the failure of the LDs to win the seat back in 2019 when Labour was weighed down by the Jared O'Mara factor plus the bleak national picture, it strikes me as highly unlikely that Labour will lose the seat under current polling conditions. An increased majority here has to be much more likely.

It’s a bit of an unusual seat though in the sense that there is quite a significant three way split, the Tories seem to have fallen out of the running to win it but their vote is still significant

Labour have clearly made a lot of progress since the Clegg factor in 2015 but unless demographic changes have been that huge then they probably have a lower ceiling here compared to pretty much anywhere else in South Yorkshire

I would expect the LD to Labour switching reflected in national polling to occur here. Also a first term incumbency boost is likely for the new MP.

[stb12]

Mar 23, 2024 16:55:57 GMT graham said:

Mar 23, 2024 16:53:15 GMT stb12 said:

It’s a bit of an unusual seat though in the sense that there is quite a significant three way split, the Tories seem to have fallen out of the running to win it but their vote is still significant

Labour have clearly made a lot of progress since the Clegg factor in 2015 but unless demographic changes have been that huge then they probably have a lower ceiling here compared to pretty much anywhere else in South Yorkshire

I would expect the LD to Labour switching reflected in national polling to occur here. Also a first term incumbency boost is likely for the new MP.

Theres bound to be the odd seat that doesn’t exactly fit national polling

[YL]

I do think Labour will probably win, but there are reasons why this seat might behave oddly.

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

Mar 23, 2024 17:21:34 GMT YL said:

I do think Labour will probably win, but there are reasons why this seat might behave oddly.

Because daft people live there?

[johnloony]

It would have been better for almost everybody if Labour had gained Sheffield Hallam in 2015 instead of 2017.

Better for the constituents, because it would have avoided Jared O’Mara becoming their MP;
Better for Jared O’Mara, because he obviously wasn’t capable of being an MP properly;
and (more importantly)
Better for us psephologists because it provides us with a Portillo moment for the Deputy Prime Minister losing his seat.

[right]

Mar 23, 2024 17:46:01 GMT johnloony said:

It would have been better for almost everybody if Labour had gained Sheffield Hallam in 2015 instead of 2017.

Better for the constituents, because it would have avoided Jared O’Mara becoming their MP;
Better for Jared O’Mara, because he obviously wasn’t capable of being an MP properly;
and (more importantly)
Better for us psephologists because it provides us with a Portillo moment for the Deputy Prime Minister losing his seat.

It would have also been the only Lib Dem loss in England and Wales that didn't snap back to it's previous party.

This would complicate my already complex argument that Cameron actually went backwards in 2015.

[mattbewilson]

Mar 23, 2024 17:46:01 GMT johnloony said:

It would have been better for almost everybody if Labour had gained Sheffield Hallam in 2015 instead of 2017.

Better for the constituents, because it would have avoided Jared O’Mara becoming their MP;
Better for Jared O’Mara, because he obviously wasn’t capable of being an MP properly;
and (more importantly)
Better for us psephologists because it provides us with a Portillo moment for the Deputy Prime Minister losing his seat.

be interesting to know what Oliver Coppard would have done in 2017, it's reported he didn't stand as he didn't want to be a candidate while Jeremy was leader.

Also who would be South Yorkshire Mayor now?

[YL]

Now the YouGov MRP shows Labour only just ahead here: Lab 33%, LD 32%, Con 18%, Green 8%, Reform 8%.

[markgoodair]

Apr 3, 2024 17:16:34 GMT YL said:

Now the YouGov MRP shows Labour only just ahead here: Lab 33%, LD 32%, Con 18%, Green 8%, Reform 8%.

I’m sure that the Tory vote can be squeezed that bit more .

[graham]

Apr 3, 2024 21:00:19 GMT markgoodair said:

Apr 3, 2024 17:16:34 GMT YL said:

Now the YouGov MRP shows Labour only just ahead here: Lab 33%, LD 32%, Con 18%, Green 8%, Reform 8%.

I’m sure that the Tory vote can be squeezed that bit more .

MRP seems a bit off there given that Labour polled 34.6% in 2019 and 38.4% in 2017.I would expect over 40% now.

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

Apr 4, 2024 10:19:17 GMT graham said:

Apr 3, 2024 21:00:19 GMT markgoodair said:

I’m sure that the Tory vote can be squeezed that bit more .

MRP seems a bit off there given that Labour polled 34.6% in 2019 and 38.4% in 2017.I would expect over 40% now.

Not as simple as that, the more students who are registered the better for Labour, so when the election is will be a factor. Generally the Labour Council is a negative and Labour has fallen back in Sheffield over the last couple of years. It will be close likely a Labour hold, but they definitely aren't taking that for granted.