stb12
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Post by stb12 on Jun 27, 2024 8:51:27 GMT
While he might not have the native Yorkshireman advantage that William Hague did is there much evidence of Sunak having a negative personal vote? It strikes me that if this was to be lost then there will need to be that to some extent |
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Post by where2travel on Jun 27, 2024 9:09:40 GMT
While he might not have the native Yorkshireman advantage that William Hague did is there much evidence of Sunak having a negative personal vote? It strikes me that if this was to be lost then there will need to be that to some extent No, I'm not sure there is, and it's often said that party leaders (in particular PMs) receive a boost for that which would likely offset any existing negative personal vote. In 2015, it was felt the Tories underperformed here and some of that relative level of underperformance was laid at Sunak's door. It was his first election here and people said there was a bit of a distrust towards an outsider from down south being parachuted into the seat. Whether that's true or not, I don't know - the numbers do bear that out and the recovery since then means he quickly got over that (thus reducing any negative personal vote). I wouldn't have thought there would be much impact with him not being in the constituency a lot. It's a constituency used to high profile MPs with other roles, and I sense they value that more than local visibility (which is hard in an enormous constituency anyway). My sense this is being overly hyped as a possible (however small) Tory loss because of who it is. The swing will of course be large (even relatively so, because there is a lot of votes to potentially swing away), but that's just all the Tory factors applying everywhere. |
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slon
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Post by slon on Jun 27, 2024 19:13:37 GMT
I think you are reading it wrong.
When asked about voting intentions the folks there will say Tory, that is what they have always voted.
My opinion is that they don't like and possibly resent Sunak, he is not one of them, has done nothing for them, and will depart for distant parts a couple of days after the election.
Yorkshire people might be a bit strange are they not stupid.
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YL
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Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
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Post by YL on Jun 27, 2024 19:27:23 GMT
No, I'm not sure there is, and it's often said that party leaders (in particular PMs) receive a boost for that which would likely offset any existing negative personal vote. This is often said, but as I said in the Holborn & St Pancras thread I think there's very little sign of leadership boosts in the last three elections. I still think Sunak will probably hold his seat, because, well, it's Richmond & Northallerton, but I won't be astonished if he loses and if the real Tory disaster scenarios (the ones in Ed Davey Leader of the Opposition territory) come to pass I don't think he'll be immune. |
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
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Post by cogload on Jun 29, 2024 9:04:53 GMT
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Jun 29, 2024 21:08:04 GMT
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Post by peterski on Jun 30, 2024 4:33:35 GMT
When the leader of the Conservatives is spouting such multi-culti drivel you really wonder what the party is for and who they are meant to appeal to. Well..temple-goers in Neasden clearly but that won't help him much in Richmond and Northallerton. I really wonder what his definition of success is when you look at our bombed-out economy and dislocated society.
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Post by Merseymike on Jun 30, 2024 8:04:17 GMT
When the leader of the Conservatives is spouting such multi-culti drivel you really wonder what the party is for and who they are meant to appeal to. Well..temple-goers in Neasden clearly but that won't help him much in Richmond and Northallerton. I really wonder what his definition of success is when you look at our bombed-out economy and dislocated society. He is a Hindu. That's all |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 30, 2024 12:08:05 GMT
On this occasion, that maybe *is* all there is to it - some can overthink these things.
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right
Conservative
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Post by right on Jun 30, 2024 20:06:19 GMT
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Post by norflondon on Jun 30, 2024 20:45:38 GMT
No politician imo should be visiting temples mosques synagogues...etc etc we have a separation of state from religion for v good reasons. I.e on grounds of democracy
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john07
Labour & Co-operative
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Post by john07 on Jun 30, 2024 20:57:25 GMT
No politician imo should be visiting temples mosques synagogues...etc etc we have a separation of state from religion for v good reasons. I.e on grounds of democracy Do we have a separation of Church and state? If so why do some Church of England Bishops sit in the House of Lords? |
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Post by norflondon on Jun 30, 2024 21:04:53 GMT
Good point. I suppose I meant separation from the executive
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Sandy
Forum Regular
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Post by Sandy on Jun 30, 2024 21:30:51 GMT
No politician imo should be visiting temples mosques synagogues...etc etc we have a separation of state from religion for v good reasons. I.e on grounds of democracy Cringe |
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cathyc
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Post by cathyc on Jun 30, 2024 22:25:18 GMT
No politician imo should be visiting temples mosques synagogues...etc etc we have a separation of state from religion for v good reasons. I.e on grounds of democracy Do we have a separation of Church and state? If so why do some Church of England Bishops sit in the House of Lords? The Monarch is also the head of the Church of England. The two aren't separated but deeply embedded. |
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Sg1
Conservative
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Post by Sg1 on Jun 30, 2024 22:28:17 GMT
No politician imo should be visiting temples mosques synagogues...etc etc we have a separation of state from religion for v good reasons. I.e on grounds of democracy No politician should be free to practice their religion? |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 1, 2024 4:20:50 GMT
Here's an amusing counterfactual for you. What if the SLD and SDP didn't both fight this seat in 1989?
I suspect the result would have been this:
Pearce SLD 54 (+27*)
Hague CON 37 (-24)
Robson LAB 5 (-6)
Upshall GRN 3 (na)
OTH 1(na)
SLD gain from CON - 25.5% swing
What that would mean for this seat's trajectory in the 21st century would be interesting? Does Hague getting into Parliament three years later than in our timeline hurt his chances of becoming leader? I'm assuming the answer is yes, and that Kenneth Clarke defeats him or John Redwood or Michael Howard in 1997.
*change from the 1987 Liberal election result.
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
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Post by cogload on Jul 2, 2024 9:18:09 GMT
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Post by finsobruce on Jul 2, 2024 9:23:01 GMT
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Post by peterski on Jul 2, 2024 12:00:35 GMT
How many were there to catch a glimpse of 80's hearthrob Sharkey? Usually the folks round here have to content themselves with bumping into Chubby Brown and Janet Street-Porter in Northallerton (not together .. unfortunately)
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