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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Jun 23, 2024 18:45:12 GMT
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Post by bjornhattan on Jun 23, 2024 18:55:42 GMT
Survation poll conducted 12-21 June Con 39% Lab 28% Reform 18% Lib Dem 9% Green 4% Quite. He is not going to lose and never looked like it. The activity here has all been by the usual Know-nothing suspects and is pointless blather which is all that most of them ever provide. (Yes I know I covenanted not to do this, but it is a Sunday and some of us have been sorely provoked by two of three gormless pricks to the point of considering murder!) In fairness, I don't think his safety is so assured that it can be taken as a given. There are parts of this constituency that he will lose badly - potentially in ways that few Tories ever have (looking at my own numbers, Northallerton town last voted Labour in 1997, and even then only by about 1-2%, but this time it is likely Labour will win by quite a lot). But the key point is that once you analyse the different parts of this constituency, it quickly becomes apparent that a Labour challenge will always fall just a little short. Too much of it is either in assuredly Conservative rural areas or affluent market towns where Labour will poll reasonably well at best. |
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Post by batman on Jun 23, 2024 21:42:15 GMT
Survation poll conducted 12-21 June Con 39% Lab 28% Reform 18% Lib Dem 9% Green 4% Quite. He is not going to lose and never looked like it. The activity here has all been by the usual Know-nothing suspects and is pointless blather which is all that most of them ever provide. (Yes I know I covenanted not to do this, but it is a Sunday and some of us have been sorely provoked by two of three gormless pricks to the point of considering murder!) thinking about murder is not in itself sinful. Carrying it out, slightly different. |
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Post by greatkingrat on Jun 23, 2024 21:45:11 GMT
Quite. He is not going to lose and never looked like it. The activity here has all been by the usual Know-nothing suspects and is pointless blather which is all that most of them ever provide. (Yes I know I covenanted not to do this, but it is a Sunday and some of us have been sorely provoked by two of three gormless pricks to the point of considering murder!) thinking about murder is not in itself sinful. Carrying it out, slightly different. Not sure what the Jewish position is, but at least as far as the Catholic Church is concerned, it would come under Wrath. |
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Post by carlton43 on Jun 23, 2024 23:07:55 GMT
Quite. He is not going to lose and never looked like it. The activity here has all been by the usual Know-nothing suspects and is pointless blather which is all that most of them ever provide. (Yes I know I covenanted not to do this, but it is a Sunday and some of us have been sorely provoked by two of three gormless pricks to the point of considering murder!) thinking about murder is not in itself sinful. Carrying it out, slightly different. Carry it out!! Wot in my state of 'elf? With my back? |
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johng
Labour
Posts: 4,850 
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Post by johng on Jun 24, 2024 0:37:41 GMT
BBC TV coverage of declarations: I'm guessing... Richmond Holborn Aberdeen S Clacton Ilford N Chingford Islington N Kingston & S Bristol Central Godalming Welwyn H Caerfyrddin..... inter alia Can anyone update this please
Surely they'll have journalists and cameras at a relatively large number of the counts so there should be quite a range of options dependent on how things go.
They should also broadcast there first results. Is it still expected to be Newcastle upon Tyne Central (and West this time) or will Houghton and Sunderland South regain that title, or, indeed, anyone else?
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msc
Non-Aligned
Posts: 910
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Post by msc on Jun 24, 2024 12:33:18 GMT
Still got 1997 to re-watch and compare but glancing over the 2019 BBC coverage, I was disappointed by how few declarations were shown, with them preferring to focus on Laura Kuenssberg analysis of the results (and rumour mongering tbh).
Sky and ITV seemed to do a lot of the heavy lifting with the interesting seats instead.
Hopefully this wont be the case next week.
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Jun 24, 2024 12:55:03 GMT
Still got 1997 to re-watch and compare but glancing over the 2019 BBC coverage, I was disappointed by how few declarations were shown, with them preferring to focus on Laura Kuenssberg analysis of the results (and rumour mongering tbh). Sky and ITV seemed to do a lot of the heavy lifting with the interesting seats instead. Hopefully this wont be the case next week. The BBC does seem to have abandoned showing declarations. |
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Post by norflondon on Jun 24, 2024 14:16:07 GMT
That's a shame because TV coverage provided one of the funniest things I've ever seen.
In Huntingdon in 97; when the BBC commentator actually said - sotto voce - "Buckethead party" just after the presiding officer said "Buckethead, Lord...".
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Post by carlton43 on Jun 24, 2024 14:22:26 GMT
Still got 1997 to re-watch and compare but glancing over the 2019 BBC coverage, I was disappointed by how few declarations were shown, with them preferring to focus on Laura Kuenssberg analysis of the results (and rumour mongering tbh). Sky and ITV seemed to do a lot of the heavy lifting with the interesting seats instead. Hopefully this wont be the case next week. I prefer the analysis by good analysts and the chit-chat by informed an erudite studio guests. I much prefer the ticker-tape clarity of results with time to take them in and informed analysis of any astonishing results with assumed reasons. All backed up by a clear board format for every result held in place for enough time to take it in and copy where needed. Declarations are for me monumental time wasters and interrupters of more interesting input. The dithering, poor mikes, indistinct voices, bad accents, hesitancy, mistakes, lack of conformity as to order and content often make them excruciating to watch. Then the interminable speeches full of triumphalism, cant, cliches, bloody tripe are another severe downside. I shall watch the channel that the fewest or no declarations. |
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Post by markgoodair on Jun 24, 2024 14:43:11 GMT
BBC TV coverage of declarations: I'm guessing... Richmond Holborn Aberdeen S Clacton Ilford N Chingford Islington N Kingston & S Bristol Central Godalming Welwyn H Caerfyrddin..... inter alia Can anyone update this please I expect like in previous elections we will have TV coverage of the Declaration in Wakefield as Yvette Cooper will be re-elected . |
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right
Conservative
Posts: 18,876
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Post by right on Jun 25, 2024 8:11:02 GMT
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Post by eastmidlandsright on Jun 25, 2024 8:12:27 GMT
Sunak losing would be a truly wonderful result but it isn't going to happen.
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Post by norflondon on Jun 25, 2024 11:24:38 GMT
It might do, its unlikely but forseeable, like Braverman in Fareham, she might be defeated too. If a party is at 20%, up against a resurgent similar party and ppl want to punish you, extraodinary results could occur. The betting markets for this seat suggests he has approximately a 25% chance of losing.
One of the big stories of this election , I feel, is going to be, has to be, Reform getting about 3.5m to the 4 million votes and only having one or two members of Parliament.
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slon
Non-Aligned
Posts: 13,345
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Post by slon on Jun 27, 2024 7:53:08 GMT
We had a few days near Ripon last week .... not many Tory placards to be seen anywhere in the Dales.
I think he will come unstuck, no matter what the survation polls say
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Post by Ron Swanson on Jun 27, 2024 8:17:14 GMT
We had a few days near Ripon last week .... not many Tory placards to be seen anywhere in the Dales. I think he will come unstuck, no matter what the survation polls say If he was just a junior to mid ranking minister he could curtail his national campaigning and spend all his time in the seat… but as PM he can’t, and is distracted doing all sorts. Absolutely possible that he does, all the attention seems to be on the Tories and their latest gaffe - rather than the incoming government. |
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slon
Non-Aligned
Posts: 13,345
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Post by slon on Jun 27, 2024 8:20:47 GMT
We had a few days near Ripon last week .... not many Tory placards to be seen anywhere in the Dales. I think he will come unstuck, no matter what the survation polls say If he was just a junior to mid ranking minister he could curtail his national campaigning and spend all his time in the seat… but as PM he can’t, and is distracted doing all sorts. Absolutely possible that he does, all the attention seems to be on the Tories and their latest gaffe - rather than the incoming government. There is the personal angle as well, they are a funny lot in Yorkshire. The area is staunch Tory..... but they don't like Rishi |
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stb12
Top Poster
Posts: 8,399
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Post by stb12 on Jun 27, 2024 8:22:40 GMT
Ultimately it’s still one of the safest Tory seats in the land, it’s understandable why it’s getting some hype considering all the safe seats seemingly under threat but would it be getting quite as much excitement if it wasn’t for who the Tory candidate is?
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Post by batman on Jun 27, 2024 8:44:42 GMT
no, clearly not.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Jun 27, 2024 8:49:06 GMT
Also the Tory Party are culturally ingrained across much of rural north Yorkshire in a way that isn't true anywhere else in the country aside from parts of East Anglia, which makes shifting Sunak much harder than it would otherwise be
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