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Post by noorderling on Jun 20, 2024 10:58:30 GMT
You can always lie low on the backbenches, turning up only occasionally, and employing staff to deal with constituency matters, as did Major and Brown. While having a lucrative job elsewhere - there's no ban on this although you are now required to declare outside income. Nick Clegg's starting salary was £2.7m at Facebook, and he's been promoted since. If Sunak can land a similar gig, or even David Milliband's $1m a year as the CEO of an NGO, you have to ask whether doing that would be worth the effort to somebody who has already married into the elite. I suspect however the timing will depend on whether Sunak's successor is an ally or an enemy? If it is somebody he supports then he may not want to stitch them up with an early byelection, whereas if it is somebody he doesn't get on with, Boris for example (which is a possibility), he can hold onto that card and play it when he thinks it will inflict damage. Clegg did not back out, but was kicked out by the voters. |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 20, 2024 13:08:11 GMT
You can always lie low on the backbenches, turning up only occasionally, and employing staff to deal with constituency matters, as did Major and Brown. While having a lucrative job elsewhere - there's no ban on this although you are now required to declare outside income. Nick Clegg's starting salary was £2.7m at Facebook, and he's been promoted since. If Sunak can land a similar gig, or even David Milliband's $1m a year as the CEO of an NGO, you have to ask whether doing that would be worth the effort to somebody who has already married into the elite. I suspect however the timing will depend on whether Sunak's successor is an ally or an enemy? If it is somebody he supports then he may not want to stitch them up with an early byelection, whereas if it is somebody he doesn't get on with, Boris for example (which is a possibility), he can hold onto that card and play it when he thinks it will inflict damage. Well yes, it is possible. But the obstacles to it happening are formidable, even if not quite as much as with Farage. |
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nyx
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Post by nyx on Jun 21, 2024 23:13:09 GMT
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Jun 22, 2024 0:08:31 GMT
Can you break the paywall please? |
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nyx
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Post by nyx on Jun 22, 2024 0:32:16 GMT
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YL
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Post by YL on Jun 22, 2024 8:59:45 GMT
Report from a focus group in this constituency:
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r34t
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Post by r34t on Jun 22, 2024 12:38:19 GMT
I was in Wensleydale last weekend, so drove through a chunk of the constituency. Only saw one Tory poster (which was a surprise) heard a few comments about D-Day & how, wit the largest garrison in western europe, he really should have known better. I don't think he will lose, but the fact we are even talking about that as a possibility .....
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Post by Ron Swanson on Jun 22, 2024 16:52:37 GMT
I’d have thought that the Lib Dems would do better here than they have tbh, never above 20% since 1992.
It is different to nearby Harrogate & Knaresborough… but the difference in the respective vote shares seems out of kilter to me.
Even if Knaresborough is probably the most obviously LD area of anywhere in and around West/North Yorkshire.
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Post by london(ex)tory on Jun 22, 2024 19:28:51 GMT
I do have to wonder whether Farage intended to stand all along but wanted to throw the likes of Count Binface, the Loony's and Al Murray off the scent. And it has largely worked. It takes about 45 minutes to a hour of doorknocking to get ten signatures, so there was plenty of time for a frivolous candidate to stand in Clacton had they so wished. There are two frivolous candidates in Clacton already - UKIP and Tony Mack. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 23, 2024 8:03:06 GMT
LAB 37% CON 32% LD 22% RFM 6% OTH 3%
It's easy to forget now that if the SDP and SLD weren't playing silly buggers here in 1989, the Lib Dems would have won the seat. Hague scraped by with 37% and Conservatives were nearly spared his basket case leadership. Therefore, I think Sunak will lose here, not least because of his D Day debacle.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 23, 2024 8:37:19 GMT
I think a Labour win here is possible but unlikely. There has always been a bit of a Labour vote in Catterick and Northallerton, but for the Labour lead there to overwhelm the Tory lead in the rural bits is a tough ask, especially as Richmond itself is much less friendly to Labour
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 23, 2024 8:38:40 GMT
I think a Labour win here is possible but unlikely. There has always been a bit of a Labour vote in Catterick and Northallerton, but for the Labour lead there to overwhelm the Tory lead in the rural bits is a tough ask, especially as Richmond itself is much less friendly to Labour I thought about that and I wonder if issues around farming subsidies might harm Sunak in the rural areas. Has CAP funding been replaced like for like? This seat isn't that wealthy, it's just very rural and very white, not as elitist as say, Harrogate which I have as an easy Lib Dem gain. |
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Jun 23, 2024 8:49:00 GMT
If Sunak wins by say 5000 with Labour second, the almost inevitable Richmond and Northallerton by election in October will be an interesting contest. New government in honeymoon period but You’d think in most times the Lib Dem’s would be the likely challengers in a BE here. Could be quite a close 3 way battle.
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Post by batman on Jun 23, 2024 8:50:12 GMT
In the normal course of events, even in a very good Labour year Northallerton votes more Conservative than Labour, and it's Labour's best part of the constituency (albeit it is relatively substantial). The rest of the seat is mostly very difficult territory. I don't instinctively believe that enough rural voters will desert the Conservatives to enable them to lose, but like European Lefty I would tend towards Con hold rather than totally ruling out a Labour gain. A constituency poll would be most useful here! (I mean a market research professionally conducted poll, not a poll on this forum.)
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 23, 2024 10:12:41 GMT
Something something deckchairs on the Titanic
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Post by Ron Swanson on Jun 23, 2024 10:37:22 GMT
He is having a dreadfully bad campaign, and as PM is bound to do mostly national campaigning across the country in supposed swing seats.
But… he is a dreadful campaigner, perhaps the worst among political leaders, current/would be PMs in my lifetime. You’d not want him visiting your constituency if you could avoid it, which is really poor stuff.
I’d be interested to see what one of those word cloud things would look like, with him as the subject of it. Geeky, boring, corrupt, weak, liar, rich, out of touch…
If he does shed a lot of votes, he’ll be hoping those folk stay at home or vote Reform rather than switching to Labour. Pretty much everything is against him - national picture, a desire to kick the Tories, him personally, D-Day, the campaign…
He probably does squeak home but with a thin majority. Raab was nearly booted out in 2019, so it is possible…
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nyx
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Post by nyx on Jun 23, 2024 15:00:02 GMT
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Jun 23, 2024 15:34:27 GMT
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Post by peterski on Jun 23, 2024 15:51:38 GMT
Sunak is vulnerable here without a doubt . He has never developed the local popularity of his predecessor William Hague ; there has always been a sense of him not being 'one of us'amongst a large segment of the community. Whilst it is traditionally rock solid Tory territory it isn't glitzy or ostentatiously prosperous like Harrogate and Knaresborough. The main urban centres are socially mixed ; Northallerton has a large working class element although this has not always ensured strong Labour performances I'm sure they will carry the town this year . Richmond and Catterick Garrison are equally mixed in character , indeed the Colburn area of Catterick is highly deprived and Labour will win here, but the Liberal Democrats are strong in Richmond town itself in local elections at least . The Tory vote is clearly collapsing but my sense is it is shooting off in many directions , it cannot be guaranteed enough of it will go Labour for them to win . Sunak may narrowly squeak home . My prediction: Con 32%
Lab 30%
LD 14%
Ref 12%
Grn 6%
Oth 6%
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YL
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Post by YL on Jun 23, 2024 16:30:24 GMT
Survation poll conducted 12-21 June
Con 39%
Lab 28%
Reform 18%
Lib Dem 9%
Green 4%
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