|
|
Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Jun 15, 2024 7:17:57 GMT
He can't back out of that very easily so I think he'll regret putting it on record. I can't see him sticking to being an MP at all. |
|
|
|
Post by markgoodair on Jun 15, 2024 7:37:22 GMT
He can't back out of that very easily so I think he'll regret putting it on record. I can't see him sticking to being an MP at all. He will be gone by Christmas. |
|
right
Conservative
Posts: 18,875
|
Post by right on Jun 15, 2024 7:43:14 GMT
He can't back out of that very easily so I think he'll regret putting it on record. I can't see him sticking to being an MP at all. He will be gone by Christmas. Possibly, but if not I suspect you won't credit him for sticking around. It's an odd characteristic of Lib Dems, they actually believe the demonisation of their opponents particularly - especially - if they disprove the caricature. |
|
Ports
Non-Aligned
Posts: 606 
|
Post by Ports on Jun 15, 2024 8:27:56 GMT
Of course if he resigns as an MP he no longer needs to worry about the opinions of people who would hold him to account for not staying on as an MP. But if he does stay and fulfils the duties of the role, credit to him.
|
|
nyx
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,046
|
Post by nyx on Jun 15, 2024 10:05:04 GMT
Still a decent chance the choice is made for him by losing his seat, of course.
|
|
|
|
Post by batman on Jun 15, 2024 10:43:04 GMT
I’d still say that’s slight though.
|
|
|
|
Post by batman on Jun 15, 2024 10:44:22 GMT
Paraphrasing Muhammad Ali, in this seat Labour has got two chances, slim and none.
|
|
YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,915
|
Post by YL on Jun 15, 2024 10:52:31 GMT
Sunak ought to hold on, but I think that the statement that he will serve the full term may well be because there is a genuine sense that he is not safe and that the speculation that he would resign as an MP shortly after re-election is not helping.
A Labour MP for this seat is a bizarre prospect, but under some of the more extreme polls and projections there are going to be some bizarre results.
|
|
J.G.Harston
Lib Dem
Leave-voting Brexit-supporting Liberal Democrat
Posts: 14,804
|
Post by J.G.Harston on Jun 15, 2024 10:55:45 GMT
Cameron promised to stay if he lost, and he lied. Why should we believe other Conservative leaders?
|
|
|
|
Post by andrewp on Jun 15, 2024 11:03:42 GMT
He has to say he will he stay, as any PM would, he won’t, as many PMs wouldn’t. It’s just the way it is isn’t it.
|
|
|
|
Post by greatkingrat on Jun 15, 2024 11:03:47 GMT
Cameron promised to stay if he lost, and he lied. Why should we believe other Conservative leaders? Nick Clegg promised not to increase tuition fees, and he lied. Why should we believe other Lib Dems? Keir Starmer said Jeremy Corbyn would make a great Prime Minister. He was either lying then or is lying now. Why should we believe other Labour politicians? |
|
nyx
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,046
|
Post by nyx on Jun 15, 2024 12:01:12 GMT
Still a decent chance the choice is made for him by losing his seat, of course. No there isn't. You have obviously little experience of elections and never been to the constituency. The constituency is close to where I live; I've been throughout most of it frequently. In any ordinary election it would obviously be very much safe. There's a combination of the extremely poor national picture for the Conservatives, a large number of traditional Conservatives staying home or voting for Reform, Sunak's personal issues (D-day gaffe will hurt here as the constituency has a large military presence at Catterick Garrison), and the fact that Labour managed to be competitive in the recent mayoral election. Sunak will probably win but I'd expect it to be by a massively smaller majority. |
|
|
|
Post by carlton43 on Jun 15, 2024 12:18:07 GMT
No there isn't. You have obviously little experience of elections and never been to the constituency. The constituency is close to where I live; I've been throughout most of it frequently. In any ordinary election it would obviously be very much safe. There's a combination of the extremely poor national picture for the Conservatives, a large number of traditional Conservatives staying home or voting for Reform, Sunak's personal issues (D-day gaffe will hurt here as the constituency has a large military presence at Catterick Garrison), and the fact that Labour managed to be competitive in the recent mayoral election. Sunak will probably win but I'd expect it to be by a massively smaller majority. Then I apologise, for you are local and have evidence. I was reacting to the usual blather from ill-informed pseudo analysts we often see mid campaign, and the more hysterical end of LDs and especially Greens ramping impossible results. But, seeing you have raised the matter would you care to make a forecast of the result for that constituency as you reasonably expect from known facts today? And the scenario in your head for a loss of that seat with again an actual forecast of what that would look like? |
|
nyx
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,046
|
Post by nyx on Jun 15, 2024 13:32:09 GMT
The constituency is close to where I live; I've been throughout most of it frequently. In any ordinary election it would obviously be very much safe. There's a combination of the extremely poor national picture for the Conservatives, a large number of traditional Conservatives staying home or voting for Reform, Sunak's personal issues (D-day gaffe will hurt here as the constituency has a large military presence at Catterick Garrison), and the fact that Labour managed to be competitive in the recent mayoral election. Sunak will probably win but I'd expect it to be by a massively smaller majority. Then I apologise, for you are local and have evidence. I was reacting to the usual blather from ill-informed pseudo analysts we often see mid campaign, and the more hysterical end of LDs and especially Greens ramping impossible results. But, seeing you have raised the matter would you care to make a forecast of the result for that constituency as you reasonably expect from known facts today? And the scenario in your head for a loss of that seat with again an actual forecast of what that would look like? From known facts today- I will assume that the national vote share is somewhat similar to the current polling average (around Lab 40%, Con 20%, Reform 15%, Lib Dem 10%); it could easily change further in either direction but this feels like a reasonable assumption to make barring further information. Richmond and Northallerton is very much a traditionally-Conservative, older, reasonably well off sort of seat. It had the Tories' highest vote share in the country in 2010, though this was down to 56th-highest vote share in the country by 2019. The boundary change marginally reduces their margin in the notional results, but it's not really significant. 2019 result (Thrasher+Rallings) was Con 32,861 (63.3%), Lab 8,530 (16.4%), LD 6,475 (12.5%), Green 1,976 (3.8%). The Lib Dem vote certainly isn't a firm one as they only got 6% in 2015 and 2017; the 2019 strength was most likely a one-off thanks to Brexit. I'd assume it goes back to Labour, but they might get a few votes from disaffected Tories who can't ever stomach voting Labour, so I'd put them on 7-8% or so. Yorkshire Party only got 2% of the vote in 2019, but given a lot of their support comes from disaffected "soft Tories", they'll probably build on that this time. 4-5% or so. Greens also probably stay on 4% like they have for the past several elections. Reform will most likely relatively speaking underperform here compared to nationally- this isn't really the sort of Conservative vote that would head to Reform en masse (unlike immediately north of here, where it is quite possible Reform outpolls the Tories across the Tees Valley). Labour doesn't have a huge amount of local presence here insofar as actually winning local elections. There isn't any data on the result of this year's mayoral election within the borders of this constituency, but I'd estimate Labour was probably only about 5% behind. Relatively speaking I expect their stronghold is Northallerton but that's still hardly Labour-leaning overall. However, they've still clearly got some support spread out across the seat. They managed 23% of the vote in the 2017 general election, a figure which should be comfortably surpassed this time considering that Labour is now being run by a generic inoffensive centrist rather than Jeremy Corbyn. Also, their candidate is actually fairly strong and running a meaningful local campaign (unlike Sunak). Put it all together, along with the various protest vote minor parties, and my approximate prediction would be Con 35% (-28). 17,500 votes Lab 30% (+14). 15,000 votes Reform 15% (+15). 7,500 votes LD 8% (-4). 4,000 votes Yorkshire 4% (+2). 2,000 votes Green 4% (+0). 2,000 votes Others 4% (+2). 2,000 votes Close enough that it wouldn't at all surprise me to see a slightly stronger swing, enough to flip the seat. |
|
|
|
Post by carlton43 on Jun 15, 2024 13:59:49 GMT
Then I apologise, for you are local and have evidence. I was reacting to the usual blather from ill-informed pseudo analysts we often see mid campaign, and the more hysterical end of LDs and especially Greens ramping impossible results. But, seeing you have raised the matter would you care to make a forecast of the result for that constituency as you reasonably expect from known facts today? And the scenario in your head for a loss of that seat with again an actual forecast of what that would look like? From known facts today- I will assume that the national vote share is somewhat similar to the current polling average (around Lab 40%, Con 20%, Reform 15%, Lib Dem 10%); it could easily change further in either direction but this feels like a reasonable assumption to make barring further information. Richmond and Northallerton is very much a traditionally-Conservative, older, reasonably well off sort of seat. It had the Tories' highest vote share in the country in 2010, though this was down to 56th-highest vote share in the country by 2019. The boundary change marginally reduces their margin in the notional results, but it's not really significant. 2019 result (Thrasher+Rallings) was Con 32,861 (63.3%), Lab 8,530 (16.4%), LD 6,475 (12.5%), Green 1,976 (3.8%). The Lib Dem vote certainly isn't a firm one as they only got 6% in 2015 and 2017; the 2019 strength was most likely a one-off thanks to Brexit. I'd assume it goes back to Labour, but they might get a few votes from disaffected Tories who can't ever stomach voting Labour, so I'd put them on 7-8% or so. Yorkshire Party only got 2% of the vote in 2019, but given a lot of their support comes from disaffected "soft Tories", they'll probably build on that this time. 4-5% or so. Greens also probably stay on 4% like they have for the past several elections. Reform will most likely relatively speaking underperform here compared to nationally- this isn't really the sort of Conservative vote that would head to Reform en masse (unlike immediately north of here, where it is quite possible Reform outpolls the Tories across the Tees Valley). Labour doesn't have a huge amount of local presence here insofar as actually winning local elections. There isn't any data on the result of this year's mayoral election within the borders of this constituency, but I'd estimate Labour was probably only about 5% behind. Relatively speaking I expect their stronghold is Northallerton but that's still hardly Labour-leaning overall. However, they've still clearly got some support spread out across the seat. They managed 23% of the vote in the 2017 general election, a figure which should be comfortably surpassed this time considering that Labour is now being run by a generic inoffensive centrist rather than Jeremy Corbyn. Also, their candidate is actually fairly strong and running a meaningful local campaign (unlike Sunak). Put it all together, along with the various protest vote minor parties, and my approximate prediction would be Con 35% (-28). 17,500 votes Lab 30% (+14). 15,000 votes Reform 15% (+15). 7,500 votes LD 8% (-4). 4,000 votes Yorkshire 4% (+2). 2,000 votes Green 4% (+0). 2,000 votes Others 4% (+2). 2,000 votes Close enough that it wouldn't at all surprise me to see a slightly stronger swing, enough to flip the seat. Thank you. Interesting analysis and follow your arguments and agree most of it, but not the closeness of that final result. |
|
|
|
Post by devolutionist on Jun 20, 2024 8:41:39 GMT
He can't back out of that very easily so I think he'll regret putting it on record. I can't see him sticking to being an MP at all. He can back out of it very easily, if he walks away from politics he doesn't need to care what the people of Richmond and Northallerton think of him. Nick Clegg style global affairs job in the US beckons I suspect. |
|
|
|
Post by John Chanin on Jun 20, 2024 8:49:43 GMT
He can't back out of that very easily so I think he'll regret putting it on record. I can't see him sticking to being an MP at all. He can back out of it very easily, if he walks away from politics he doesn't need to care what the people of Richmond and Northallerton think of him. Nick Clegg style global affairs job in the US beckons I suspect. You can always lie low on the backbenches, turning up only occasionally, and employing staff to deal with constituency matters, as did Major and Brown. While having a lucrative job elsewhere - there's no ban on this although you are now required to declare outside income. |
|
|
|
Post by stodge on Jun 20, 2024 8:54:38 GMT
There's a difference between quitting after being knifed in the back by your colleagues and leaving because you have been comprehensively rejected by the British people in an election.
Major served his term and left the Commons in 2001 - before him, James Callaghan remained am MP until retiring in 1987 and as we know Sir Edward Heath remained a Conservative backbench MP until 2001.
Precedent suggests Rishi Sunak will, if re-elected, serve at least one more term until going off to do other things.
|
|
|
|
Post by devolutionist on Jun 20, 2024 9:02:42 GMT
He can back out of it very easily, if he walks away from politics he doesn't need to care what the people of Richmond and Northallerton think of him. Nick Clegg style global affairs job in the US beckons I suspect. You can always lie low on the backbenches, turning up only occasionally, and employing staff to deal with constituency matters, as did Major and Brown. While having a lucrative job elsewhere - there's no ban on this although you are now required to declare outside income. Nick Clegg's starting salary was £2.7m at Facebook, and he's been promoted since. If Sunak can land a similar gig, or even David Milliband's $1m a year as the CEO of an NGO, you have to ask whether doing that would be worth the effort to somebody who has already married into the elite. I suspect however the timing will depend on whether Sunak's successor is an ally or an enemy? If it is somebody he supports then he may not want to stitch them up with an early byelection, whereas if it is somebody he doesn't get on with, Boris for example (which is a possibility), he can hold onto that card and play it when he thinks it will inflict damage. |
|
|
|
Post by LDCaerdydd on Jun 20, 2024 9:55:42 GMT
Cameron promised to stay if he lost, and he lied. Why should we believe other Conservative leaders? Cameron went further and said he’d stand as an MP in 2020, that five year Parliament would still have ten months to run. |
|
