stb12
Top Poster
Posts: 8,399 
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Post by stb12 on Jul 5, 2024 3:43:14 GMT
Richmond rumours seem to have been pretty off, Sunak held easily
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Post by andrewp on Jul 6, 2024 8:37:43 GMT
Whoever was briefing, from either Labour or the Conservatives, that this might be close/ Sunak might lose was ridiculously way off. He held on by more than Hague did in 1997.
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Post by peterski on Jul 6, 2024 17:33:46 GMT
Sunak did far better here than expected by almost anyone . Clearly a Prime Ministerial bonus was in play .
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Post by eastmidlandsright on Jul 6, 2024 17:39:50 GMT
Richmond rumours seem to have been pretty off, Sunak held easily Of course he did. The only people who thought he might lose were blithering idiots who should be denied the franchise. |
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Post by eastmidlandsright on Jul 6, 2024 17:41:04 GMT
Sunak did far better here than expected by almost anyone . Clearly a Prime Ministerial bonus was in play . Who could have possibly seen such an unprecedented outcome? |
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Post by eastmidlandsright on Jul 6, 2024 17:43:23 GMT
We had a few days near Ripon last week .... not many Tory placards to be seen anywhere in the Dales. I think he will come unstuck, no matter what the survation polls say Do the decent thing and delete your account. |
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Post by peterski on Jul 6, 2024 17:55:28 GMT
John Major had a similarly solid result in Huntingdon in 1997.
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Post by where2travel on Jul 6, 2024 18:16:08 GMT
Is this is the safest Conservative seat by percentage majority? And numerical majority?
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Post by andrewp on Jul 6, 2024 18:18:12 GMT
Is this is the safest Conservative seat by percentage majority? And numerical majority? Yes and Yes |
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Post by batman on Jul 6, 2024 20:35:20 GMT
John Major had a similarly solid result in Huntingdon in 1997. and although of course he was not and never was Prime Minister, Michael Foot got over 70% in Blaenau Gwent in 1983, a big personal vote in a disastrous election. Foot, Major, Sunak & Hague all achieved the consolation of having the biggest wins for their respective parties in years when they led their parties to defeat. Major on different boundaries also had the largest numerical majority in Britain in victory in 1992 |
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Post by eastmidlandsright on Jul 6, 2024 20:39:30 GMT
John Major had a similarly solid result in Huntingdon in 1997. and although of course he was not and never was Prime Minister, Michael Foot got over 70% in Blaenau Gwent in 1983, a big personal vote in a disastrous election. Foot, Major, Sunak & Hague all achieved the consolation of having the biggest wins for their respective parties in years when they led their parties to defeat. Major on different boundaries also had the largest numerical majority in Britain in victory in 1992 Also Michael Howard had a very good result in 2005, better than he got in 1992. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 39,015
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 8, 2024 17:49:46 GMT
Keir Starmer was an interesting exception to this general rule - though perhaps his "bounce" will come next time?
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OWL
Forum Regular
Posts: 168
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Post by OWL on Jul 8, 2024 18:00:46 GMT
Is this is the safest Conservative seat by percentage majority? And numerical majority? Yes and Yes Though significantly higher Con % in Harrow East - potentially more meaningful that 1st place - 2nd place. |
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Post by norflondon on Jul 8, 2024 20:25:26 GMT
Apart from H Wilson in feb
1974 SKS is the only other winning leader of the opposition -whose party was ahead in the polls - to lose vote share in his/her own seat.
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bsjmcr
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,593
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Post by bsjmcr on Jul 10, 2024 10:32:57 GMT
Whoever was briefing, from either Labour or the Conservatives, that this might be close/ Sunak might lose was ridiculously way off. He held on by more than Hague did in 1997. I think people were overplaying the Catterick factor after D-Day but in the grand scheme of things it’s still a handful of thousand at the most, not enough to overturn the majority here even if 100% of them turned out en masse for Labour. I’d also assume many of the forces personnel posted here may have been registered at home. The remaining Conservative strength across Richmond is probably because of the area being a beneficiary of the levelling up funding that was showered over here… Would it be fair to say that it is pretty much this constituency, closely followed by Tatton, that have had the most consecutive ‘high profile’ (for better or worse) MPs one after the other? |
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Post by michaelarden on Jul 10, 2024 21:26:27 GMT
John Major had a similarly solid result in Huntingdon in 1997. and although of course he was not and never was Prime Minister, Michael Foot got over 70% in Blaenau Gwent in 1983, a big personal vote in a disastrous election. Foot, Major, Sunak & Hague all achieved the consolation of having the biggest wins for their respective parties in years when they led their parties to defeat. Major on different boundaries also had the largest numerical majority in Britain in victory in 1992 He got over 70% on a 70+% turnout and over 50% of the electorate. With the decline in turnouts since then (particularly in the safest seats) - has this feat been achieved since? |
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Post by johnloony on Jul 10, 2024 21:38:52 GMT
and although of course he was not and never was Prime Minister, Michael Foot got over 70% in Blaenau Gwent in 1983, a big personal vote in a disastrous election. Foot, Major, Sunak & Hague all achieved the consolation of having the biggest wins for their respective parties in years when they led their parties to defeat. Major on different boundaries also had the largest numerical majority in Britain in victory in 1992 He got over 70% on a 70+% turnout and over 50% of the electorate. With the decline in turnouts since then (particularly in the safest seats) - has this feat been achieved since? There were some MPs who got more than 50% of the electorate in 2017 - I remember that Steve Reed in Croydon North was one of them |
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Post by michaelarden on Jul 10, 2024 22:08:46 GMT
He got over 70% on a 70+% turnout and over 50% of the electorate. With the decline in turnouts since then (particularly in the safest seats) - has this feat been achieved since? There were some MPs who got more than 50% of the electorate in 2017 - I remember that Steve Reed in Croydon North was one of them 74.2% on a 68.2% turnout - makes it by 0.6% - thanks. Just looked it up - Corbyn got 73% on a 73.4% turnout at the same time. I guess Thangam Debbonaire in Bristol would be similar - they both had 40,000 majorities. |
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bsjmcr
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,593
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Post by bsjmcr on Jul 10, 2024 23:02:45 GMT
There were some MPs who got more than 50% of the electorate in 2017 - I remember that Steve Reed in Croydon North was one of them 74.2% on a 68.2% turnout - makes it by 0.6% - thanks. Just looked it up - Corbyn got 73% on a 73.4% turnout at the same time. I guess Thangam Debbonaire in Bristol would be similar - they both had 40,000 majorities.Whoops... and look what happened there. This election has really shown that there is no such thing as a safe seat - and even more so for next time where there are much fewer of would be traditionally regarded as safe seats. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 39,015
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 30, 2024 9:02:55 GMT
Looks like Sunak's pre-election "pledge" to serve a full term here as a backbencher was meant about as sincerely as most of us suspected.
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