john07
Labour & Co-operative
Posts: 15,794 
|
Post by john07 on Jun 3, 2024 18:38:17 GMT
I know, I am listening to it now. It will be interesting to see whether he sticks with that. He clearly wants to be an MP, and 2029could be his moment. If he's on his best behaviour, i.e. not insulting constituencies, he will be in prime position to stand in a normally staunch Tory constituency that will go narrowly Labour in the likely landslide. It hasn't gone unnoticed that Farage said back in March that he wasn't interested in spending time hanging around Clacton. Some people's luck with past comments washing off them is unrivalled. Is suspect much of the electorate of Clacton may share Farage’s view here? |
|
|
|
Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Jun 3, 2024 18:44:54 GMT
I know, I am listening to it now. It will be interesting to see whether he sticks with that. He clearly wants to be an MP, and 2029could be his moment. If he's on his best behaviour, i.e. not insulting constituencies, he will be in prime position to stand in a normally staunch Tory constituency that will go narrowly Labour in the likely landslide. It hasn't gone unnoticed that Farage said back in March that he wasn't interested in spending time hanging around Clacton. Some people's luck with past comments washing off them is unrivalled.
Politicians can never change their minds?
No wonder our politics is so fucked up, if everything you ever say is taken literally.
Politics by autistic literalists is the modern way, rather than politics by what is best for the country.
I really am getting to the stage where political reporters and tweeters would just fuck off.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jun 3, 2024 18:47:33 GMT
It hasn't gone unnoticed that Farage said back in March that he wasn't interested in spending time hanging around Clacton. Some people's luck with past comments washing off them is unrivalled. Is suspect much of the electorate of Clacton may share Farage’s view here? Isn't Clacton full of people who moved out of Dagenham anyway? Also a lot of Tunbridge Wells is probably DFL (Down from London). |
|
|
|
Post by batman on Jun 3, 2024 21:52:56 GMT
Yes, but very different types of voters in the two seats, particularly if you're thinking of Clacton itself & its immediate satellites including Jaywick. Tunbridge Wells is older money types for the most part, and not generally full of people who have come from working-class parts of East London originally.
|
|
|
|
Post by East Anglian Lefty on Jun 7, 2024 9:24:18 GMT
In the words of my late grandmother (born in Poplar, grew up in Clacton) "Clacton has been ruined by Londoners." Surprisingly in touch with local opinion by her standards.
|
|
|
|
Post by londonseal80 on Jun 8, 2024 9:47:55 GMT
I think the Lib Dem’s will win here, when Rishi visited here it reminds me of when Cameron visited Hammersmith and Fulham and then lost it in 2014 locals.
|
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,940
Member is Online
|
Post by The Bishop on Jun 9, 2024 8:44:31 GMT
I think this is one of the very few seats still without a SOPN.....
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jun 9, 2024 8:47:28 GMT
I think the Lib Dem’s will win here, when Rishi visited here it reminds me of when Cameron visited Hammersmith and Fulham and then lost it in 2014 locals. Sunak visited this seat in the 2022 leadership campaign and subsequently lost that as well. The other thing about Kent is that there aren't any other LD targets in the Garden of England. I guess they could do reasonably well in Sevenoaks and might come back a bit in Canterbury, but this will likely be an island of yellow in a sea of blue and red come July 4th. |
|
|
|
Post by carolus on Jun 9, 2024 8:52:32 GMT
I think this is one of the very few seats still without a SOPN..... Maybe you could have added the SOPN to it, then? It really isn't very hard to find on the council website.
|
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,940
Member is Online
|
Post by The Bishop on Jun 9, 2024 8:54:08 GMT
I thought that post would be you doing it, after all you have done loads of others (and thank you very much for that) No need to be snarky  |
|
|
|
Post by Pete Whitehead on Jun 9, 2024 9:09:59 GMT
|
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,940
Member is Online
|
Post by The Bishop on Jun 9, 2024 9:12:01 GMT
Thank you for that, so the scores on the doors appear to be the five "main" parties plus an Indy.
|
|
|
|
Post by yellowperil on Jun 9, 2024 17:35:13 GMT
Given there is some discussion elsewhere about the practice of putting in multiple nomination forms, I notice that here we have the Tories submitting 3 forms and that being matched by the LibDems doing the same. Have any constituencies gone further down that route? more than 3 forms? more than two parties going for multiple nominations in that sense? |
|
|
|
Post by johnloony on Jun 9, 2024 17:45:42 GMT
Given there is some discussion elsewhere about the practice of putting in multiple nomination forms, I notice that here we have the Tories submitting 3 forms and that being matched by the LibDems doing the same. Have any constituencies gone further down that route? more than 3 forms? more than two parties going for multiple nominations in that sense? I think 3 sets of nomination signatures is the maximum permitted. But it depends on how fussy the Returning Officer is - any sensible R.O. (or their staff) would check and look at the nomination papers informally to begin with, and warn the agent/candidate if there are any errors which need to be corrected, before officially “accepting” the papers as having been “submitted”.. Once the papers are submitted, you can only do 3 sets. There is no limit on the numbers if they are merely being informally checked first. |
|
|
|
Post by LDCaerdydd on Jun 9, 2024 20:08:42 GMT
Three is almost certainly the maximum number that will be published.
Hypothetically a super keen/cautious agent could collect four (or five etc), in the anticipation/worry that one will be rejected.
Historically these notices would have been studied by many regular voters not just people like us and having 30 signatures is obviously more impressive than 10.
I’ve not looked at many, but there are many in mid and rural Wales where important locals (former MPs etc) are the lead signature. That is something that is still stuck in minds/the process.
When I was involved in Montgomeryshire the local party chair was the first signature. When I moved to Cardiff the agent told me he didn’t care who signed (obviously assuming they were real and eligible etc).
|
|
|
|
Post by LDCaerdydd on Jun 11, 2024 8:56:21 GMT
On 24th May (two days after the election was called) I bet £4 with Bet365 at 11/4 on a Lib Dem win here. (potential £15 return)
Bet365 are currently offering me £10 (£4 stake + £6) to cash out early. I'm tempted.
|
|
|
|
Post by johnloony on Jun 11, 2024 9:02:32 GMT
On 24th May (two days after the election was called) I bet £4 with Bet365 at 11/4 on a Lib Dem win here. (potential £15 return) Bet365 are currently offering me £100 (£4 stake + £6) to cash out early. I'm tempted. Where does the £6 come into the equation? |
|
|
|
Post by LDCaerdydd on Jun 11, 2024 9:10:25 GMT
On 24th May (two days after the election was called) I bet £4 with Bet365 at 11/4 on a Lib Dem win here. (potential £15 return) Bet365 are currently offering me £10 (£4 stake + £6) to cash out early. I'm tempted. Where does the £6 come into the equation? That’s what Bet365 are offering me today to walk away from the bet/cash it in early. Basically today I can get my £4 stake back plus £6 or wait and risk it until polling day when I’ll either get £4 + £11 or £0. |
|
|
|
Post by johnloony on Jun 11, 2024 9:39:08 GMT
Where does the £6 come into the equation? That’s what Bet365 are offering me today to walk away from the bet/cash it in early. Basically today I can get my £4 stake back plus £6 or wait and risk it until polling day when I’ll either get £4 + £11 or £0. Did you subtract £90 from the £100 to make £10, just to make my question look silly? I demand compensation for my trauma. I blame Piers Corbyn. If not, then you should have accepted the money when they were still offering £100 |
|
|
|
Post by LDCaerdydd on Jun 11, 2024 9:57:00 GMT
That’s what Bet365 are offering me today to walk away from the bet/cash it in early. Basically today I can get my £4 stake back plus £6 or wait and risk it until polling day when I’ll either get £4 + £11 or £0. Did you subtract £90 from the £100 to make £10, just to make my question look silly? I demand compensation for my trauma. I blame Piers Corbyn. If not, then you should have accepted the money when they were still offering £100 There was a typo in my original post where I wrote £100 instead of £10, which I corrected before you wrote this post. Hope this makes sense to you. |
|
