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Post by ccoleman on Jul 28, 2024 14:24:05 GMT
Sevenoaks voted for Brexit and Tory in 2024. It does feel *much* richer than Tunbridge Wells despite the lower number of managerial workers, which surprises me. Your view of Tunbridge Wells is frankly hilarious, you really can't make sweeping statements of a town of 60,000 on a cursory visit. The south of the town going into the High Weald is anything but 'shabby' and any town of that size is going to have areas of relative deprivation as well as a need for more affordable housing due to being the regional centre. Interestingly your opinions of Tunbridge Wells, Tonbridge and Sevenoaks is the complete opposite to those of us who grew up and those that live the other end of that train line. Tunbridge Wells is a destination and a desirable place to live whereas Tonbridge and Sevenoaks are regarded as pretty nondescript London commuter towns (which of course are 2/3rds and 1/2 the size of Tunbridge Wells respectively). And Sevenoaks town will have been a vote sink for the Lib Dems in the election earlier this month with the Tory majority being down to the Lib Dem vote in places like Swanley and the bits in Dartford district being virtually non-existent. It's also worth mentioning that the Tunbridge Wells constituency is less deprived than the Sevenoaks constituency. Both constituencies are in the 9th decile, but Tunbridge Wells is towards the bottom of the 9th decile while Sevenoaks is more towards the top. Sevenoaks is ranked similarly to Leeds North West and Bath. The Tonbridge constituency is more deprived than both - but still in the 9th decile, just below Aylesbury. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jul 29, 2024 5:57:29 GMT
Your view of Tunbridge Wells is frankly hilarious, you really can't make sweeping statements of a town of 60,000 on a cursory visit. The south of the town going into the High Weald is anything but 'shabby' and any town of that size is going to have areas of relative deprivation as well as a need for more affordable housing due to being the regional centre. Interestingly your opinions of Tunbridge Wells, Tonbridge and Sevenoaks is the complete opposite to those of us who grew up and those that live the other end of that train line. Tunbridge Wells is a destination and a desirable place to live whereas Tonbridge and Sevenoaks are regarded as pretty nondescript London commuter towns (which of course are 2/3rds and 1/2 the size of Tunbridge Wells respectively). For a "hilarious" opinion it seems numerous people upthread agree with me. I don't think it's awful, just a combination of a bit twee for me in the nicer bits (which I thought were overpriced given the distance to London) with some very shabby areas in parts - which you appear to acknowledge. High Brooms for a start. I guess being self effacing perhaps I often prefer quiet homogenous middle class suburbia. I loved Orpington which is definitely "nondescript". (I was a long way from the more working class Crays). I like Orpington. Especially out towards Chelsfield and High Elms. If I were to live within the M25, it would be high on the list. |
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Post by aargauer on Jul 31, 2024 10:35:42 GMT
Your view of Tunbridge Wells is frankly hilarious, you really can't make sweeping statements of a town of 60,000 on a cursory visit. The south of the town going into the High Weald is anything but 'shabby' and any town of that size is going to have areas of relative deprivation as well as a need for more affordable housing due to being the regional centre. Interestingly your opinions of Tunbridge Wells, Tonbridge and Sevenoaks is the complete opposite to those of us who grew up and those that live the other end of that train line. Tunbridge Wells is a destination and a desirable place to live whereas Tonbridge and Sevenoaks are regarded as pretty nondescript London commuter towns (which of course are 2/3rds and 1/2 the size of Tunbridge Wells respectively). And Sevenoaks town will have been a vote sink for the Lib Dems in the election earlier this month with the Tory majority being down to the Lib Dem vote in places like Swanley and the bits in Dartford district being virtually non-existent. It's also worth mentioning that the Tunbridge Wells constituency is less deprived than the Sevenoaks constituency. Both constituencies are in the 9th decile, but Tunbridge Wells is towards the bottom of the 9th decile while Sevenoaks is more towards the top. Sevenoaks is ranked similarly to Leeds North West and Bath. The Tonbridge constituency is more deprived than both - but still in the 9th decile, just below Aylesbury. It's worth mentioning that Sevenoaks itself is surely significantly less deprived than the rest of ithe constituency (ie Swanley) |
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Post by Deleted on Jul 31, 2024 11:43:46 GMT
When did things take a Tun for the worst for the Tories here? What did the 2021 census suggest would happen to this seat demographically in the longer term? They've lost many Wells of support about the place. Winning this in 2024, of all years, was a (Tun)bridge too far.
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Post by ccoleman on Jul 31, 2024 13:19:30 GMT
It's also worth mentioning that the Tunbridge Wells constituency is less deprived than the Sevenoaks constituency. Both constituencies are in the 9th decile, but Tunbridge Wells is towards the bottom of the 9th decile while Sevenoaks is more towards the top. Sevenoaks is ranked similarly to Leeds North West and Bath. The Tonbridge constituency is more deprived than both - but still in the 9th decile, just below Aylesbury. It's worth mentioning that Sevenoaks itself is surely significantly less deprived than the rest of ithe constituency (ie Swanley) Yes, that's a valid point. |
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Post by Deleted on Jul 31, 2024 13:58:28 GMT
It's worth mentioning that Sevenoaks itself is surely significantly less deprived than the rest of ithe constituency (ie Swanley) Yes, that's a valid point. These days that's effectively Tory gerrymandering. |
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Post by batman on Jul 31, 2024 19:13:48 GMT
I fail to see how any Kent seats are gerrymandered
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Post by edgbaston on Jul 31, 2024 19:29:49 GMT
I fail to see how any Kent seats are gerrymandered I don’t think it’s gerrymandering, but things did work out very nicely for us given the Tories narrowly won the popular vote across the county. In fact, it could have been even better, if you’d kept the old division of the Isle of Thanet between south and north, and put the consolidated Maidstone urban area in one compact seat, it could’ve been 13-4-1 in terms of seats. |
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Post by batman on Jul 31, 2024 20:46:15 GMT
It's very weird how successive boundary changes have failed to come up with a way of putting all of urban Maidstone in one seat.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 1, 2024 2:13:11 GMT
The boundaries in Kent are good for Labour but I agree it’s weird that Folkestone fell before Maidstone ever did and the boundaries explain that because my understanding is that Maidstone is quite public sector as centre of Kent services.
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Post by batman on Aug 1, 2024 2:49:34 GMT
Maidstone does have a fair-sized public sector but its best-known public sector institution, apart from local government, is its prison, and it is not a student town. Its most Labour-inclined areas have not for a long while been in a constituency with Maidstone in the title but rather in Faversham and Mid Kent, and as heavily white council estates have not been straightforward for Labour in recent years anyway. It’s not a very left-wing town for a number of reasons
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Post by Deleted on Aug 1, 2024 3:28:17 GMT
Yes, I got that sense. It's not a big public sector county town like Exeter or York or Chester. My friend is from there and paints it as gammon-y, forermly UKIPy and now Reform leaning land. He hates it.
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Post by matureleft on Aug 1, 2024 5:54:47 GMT
Maidstone does have a fair-sized public sector but its best-known public sector institution, apart from local government, is its prison, and it is not a student town. Its most Labour-inclined areas have not for a long while been in a constituency with Maidstone in the title but rather in Faversham and Mid Kent, and as heavily white council estates have not been straightforward for Labour in recent years anyway. It’s not a very left-wing town for a number of reasons I’ve noted references to the influence of the public sector in some constituencies. There’s a Commons briefing paper on this subject which gives some information using the old boundaries, and a helpful discussion of what ‘public sector’ might mean. It also demonstrates the fall in overall numbers through a large part of the last 15 years. researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/SN05635/SN05635.pdf |
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YL
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Post by YL on Aug 1, 2024 6:14:46 GMT
It's very weird how successive boundary changes have failed to come up with a way of putting all of urban Maidstone in one seat. The wording of the rules, which refer to "local ties" only where they are within existing constituencies, doesn't really give the Commission a reason to do so. |
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Post by Deleted on Aug 1, 2024 8:01:25 GMT
It's very weird how successive boundary changes have failed to come up with a way of putting all of urban Maidstone in one seat. The wording of the rules, which refer to "local ties" only where they are within existing constituencies, doesn't really give the Commission a reason to do so. So the Tories avoided a Malling in Maidstone. Maidstone isn’t that accurate nowadays. Commuterstone more like. |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Aug 2, 2024 10:11:30 GMT
I'm not convinced that the boundaries in Kent are good for Labour in the abstract, as opposed to in the specific circumstances where we had a ten point lead nationally and heavy tactical voting where it mattered most. I think if you were redrawing the map from scratch, Labour would probably want Rochester and Chatham in the same seat for a start, as that would be a seat we could hope to hold even in the event of a narrow national defeat which isn't true of either Rochester & Strood or Chatham & Aylesford.
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john07
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Post by john07 on Aug 2, 2024 13:57:43 GMT
I fail to see how any Kent seats are gerrymandered I don’t think it’s gerrymandering, but things did work out very nicely for us given the Tories narrowly won the popular vote across the county. In fact, it could have been even better, if you’d kept the old division of the Isle of Thanet between south and north, and put the consolidated Maidstone urban area in one compact seat, it could’ve been 13-4-1 in terms of seats. It think that Labour ‘over performing’ in terms of seats won per vote is down to widespread ‘anti-Tory’ tactical voting. This appears to be particularly the case in Kent. It also applies to the Lib Dem’s and the Greens. |
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Post by evergreenadam on Aug 3, 2024 8:02:06 GMT
It's very weird how successive boundary changes have failed to come up with a way of putting all of urban Maidstone in one seat. There have certainly been representations to create an urban Maidstone seat in the recent reviews, but all have failed due to various reasons. It’s an awkward part of Kent to get right given the current criteria. The local government boundaries between districts are also way out of date - parts of the far southern Medway towns urban area being in Tonbridge & Malling District and Maidstone District. The boundary should really be the M2. |
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Post by londonseal80 on Aug 9, 2024 12:26:24 GMT
Your view of Tunbridge Wells is frankly hilarious, you really can't make sweeping statements of a town of 60,000 on a cursory visit. The south of the town going into the High Weald is anything but 'shabby' and any town of that size is going to have areas of relative deprivation as well as a need for more affordable housing due to being the regional centre. Interestingly your opinions of Tunbridge Wells, Tonbridge and Sevenoaks is the complete opposite to those of us who grew up and those that live the other end of that train line. Tunbridge Wells is a destination and a desirable place to live whereas Tonbridge and Sevenoaks are regarded as pretty nondescript London commuter towns (which of course are 2/3rds and 1/2 the size of Tunbridge Wells respectively). And Sevenoaks town will have been a vote sink for the Lib Dems in the election earlier this month with the Tory majority being down to the Lib Dem vote in places like Swanley and the bits in Dartford district being virtually non-existent. It's also worth mentioning that the Tunbridge Wells constituency is less deprived than the Sevenoaks constituency. Both constituencies are in the 9th decile, but Tunbridge Wells is towards the bottom of the 9th decile while Sevenoaks is more towards the top. Sevenoaks is ranked similarly to Leeds North West and Bath. The Tonbridge constituency is more deprived than both - but still in the 9th decile, just below Aylesbury. Even constituencies in the 10th decile have their grim patches. Wimbledon - Parts of Abbey and Wandle Sutton and Cheam - Parts of Sutton Central and a small part of Belmont. Epsom and Ewell - Court and parts of Ruxley and a small part of Leatherhead North Dorking and Horley - Goodwins Estate |
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Post by Merseymike on Aug 9, 2024 12:31:42 GMT
It's also worth mentioning that the Tunbridge Wells constituency is less deprived than the Sevenoaks constituency. Both constituencies are in the 9th decile, but Tunbridge Wells is towards the bottom of the 9th decile while Sevenoaks is more towards the top. Sevenoaks is ranked similarly to Leeds North West and Bath. The Tonbridge constituency is more deprived than both - but still in the 9th decile, just below Aylesbury. Even constituencies in the 10th decile have their grim patches. Wimbledon - Parts of Abbey and Wandle Sutton and Cheam - Parts of Sutton Central and a small part of Belmont. Epsom and Ewell - Court and parts of Ruxley and a small part of Leatherhead North Dorking and Horley - Goodwins Estate I'm sure that is true. Maidenhead has Furze Platt, that includes the Harrow/Ellington Park area, and Northtown (my uncle had a pub , definitely dodgy!) |
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