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Post by jakegb on May 20, 2024 18:58:56 GMT
Would wholeheartedly endorse this - the drama was also captured v well in the 97 highlights (with the Arthur theme music). Would argue that - contrary to media reports - there have been no serious sequels. Some point to Ed Balls - but him losing his seat was always a strong possibility following his 2010 performance. Perhaps, Mordaunt will be the closest imitation, given that she is a future leadership contender and holds a safe seat (by 2019 standards). But I can't somehow see the public at large say, "Were you up for Mordaunt?" Ahem, Nick Clegg in 2017? The less said about the Labour victor the better, but people didn’t know that at the time. I don’t think it was remarked on nearly enough that Sheffield Hallam had never been a Labour seat before, most viewers probably not surprised that a Sheffield seat would go Labour or ‘it was the students’ given the eponymous university (not in the Hallam constituency of course) I think there’ll be a lot of cheers from anyone affected by universal credit when Chingford is declared even if it’s not surprising. Other than Mordaunt, a Lib Dem scalp in ‘Godalming and Ash’ would be the next equivalent. And nervous Tory candidates barely hanging on in Richmond and Northallerton, and South West Norfolk would also be interesting to see. I would class Clegg's 2017 loss as high profile and significant, but lacking the extraordinariness to be seen as a Portillo moment. Unlike Portillo, his last win (2015) was far from comfortable: his seat was vulnerable to Labour. By 2017, he was out of government, as a back-bench opposition MP (albeit a v prominent one). His loss did not symbolise popular opinion in the same way that Portillo's loss did. (The Tories in 97 were always set for a bad night, but Portillo's defeat underlined just how dire circumstances they were in. ) Had Clegg lost in 2015, then there certainly would be a case for another Portillo moment. |
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Post by batman on May 20, 2024 20:26:49 GMT
However, Rees-Mogg's seat was Labour before. I think Jeremy Hunt may actually be the best example but maybe that's a discussion for the Godalming & Ash thread. Was it on the new boundaries? not really no. this new seat is quite a bit different from the Wansdyke seat held by Labour until 2010. However it's recognisable as its linear successor I'd say. |
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
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Post by cogload on May 20, 2024 21:32:59 GMT
Reminds me of the Observer poll in Enfield, Southgate in 1997. Expect this to feature in Labour's campaign for a Portillo moment here. We are expecting Madgwick to stand for the seat. So all polling is bollocks until that is announced. The reform vote will as a consequence be 0% if and when that occurs. |
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Sg1
Conservative
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Post by Sg1 on May 20, 2024 22:26:30 GMT
Ahem, Nick Clegg in 2017? The less said about the Labour victor the better, but people didn’t know that at the time. I don’t think it was remarked on nearly enough that Sheffield Hallam had never been a Labour seat before, most viewers probably not surprised that a Sheffield seat would go Labour or ‘it was the students’ given the eponymous university (not in the Hallam constituency of course) I think there’ll be a lot of cheers from anyone affected by universal credit when Chingford is declared even if it’s not surprising. Other than Mordaunt, a Lib Dem scalp in ‘Godalming and Ash’ would be the next equivalent. And nervous Tory candidates barely hanging on in Richmond and Northallerton, and South West Norfolk would also be interesting to see. I would class Clegg's 2017 loss as high profile and significant, but lacking the extraordinariness to be seen as a Portillo moment. Unlike Portillo, his last win (2015) was far from comfortable: his seat was vulnerable to Labour. By 2017, he was out of government, as a back-bench opposition MP (albeit a v prominent one). His loss did not symbolise popular opinion in the same way that Portillo's loss did. (The Tories in 97 were always set for a bad night, but Portillo's defeat underlined just how dire circumstances they were in. ) Had Clegg lost in 2015, then there certainly would be a case for another Portillo moment. Perhaps Vince Cable was the closest thing to symbolising the Lib Dems losses in 2015. I don't remember anybody expecting Twickenham to be anything other than a reduced Lib Dem majority at the time. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 21, 2024 5:52:30 GMT
I would class Clegg's 2017 loss as high profile and significant, but lacking the extraordinariness to be seen as a Portillo moment. Unlike Portillo, his last win (2015) was far from comfortable: his seat was vulnerable to Labour. By 2017, he was out of government, as a back-bench opposition MP (albeit a v prominent one). His loss did not symbolise popular opinion in the same way that Portillo's loss did. (The Tories in 97 were always set for a bad night, but Portillo's defeat underlined just how dire circumstances they were in. ) Had Clegg lost in 2015, then there certainly would be a case for another Portillo moment. Perhaps Vince Cable was the closest thing to symbolising the Lib Dems losses in 2015. I don't remember anybody expecting Twickenham to be anything other than a reduced Lib Dem majority at the time. An ICM poll had Cable losing in 2015 IIRC. |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on May 21, 2024 10:14:33 GMT
Was it on the new boundaries? not really no. this new seat is quite a bit different from the Wansdyke seat held by Labour until 2010. However it's recognisable as its linear successor I'd say. It's not that dissimilar in terms of the South Gloucestershire parts (albeit a lot of that wasn't built on in 1997.) The difference is more in the NE Somerset bits. |
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john07
Labour & Co-operative
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Post by john07 on May 21, 2024 10:16:08 GMT
I would class Clegg's 2017 loss as high profile and significant, but lacking the extraordinariness to be seen as a Portillo moment. Unlike Portillo, his last win (2015) was far from comfortable: his seat was vulnerable to Labour. By 2017, he was out of government, as a back-bench opposition MP (albeit a v prominent one). His loss did not symbolise popular opinion in the same way that Portillo's loss did. (The Tories in 97 were always set for a bad night, but Portillo's defeat underlined just how dire circumstances they were in. ) Had Clegg lost in 2015, then there certainly would be a case for another Portillo moment. Perhaps Vince Cable was the closest thing to symbolising the Lib Dems losses in 2015. I don't remember anybody expecting Twickenham to be anything other than a reduced Lib Dem majority at the time. There were very different factors behind Lib Dem losses in 2015. Many Lib Dem MPs were highly reliant on anti-Tory tactical votes particularly in Southern seats and certain suburban seats in the North. In Hallam, I suspect that Clegg was more dependent on anti-Labour tactical votes. The formation of the coalition was always going to lose a substantial part of the anti-Tory tactical vote and that cost them loads of seats. |
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 9,141
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Post by cogload on Jun 1, 2024 14:32:05 GMT
Labour out delivering in Copnor.
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carlton43
Reform Party
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Member is Online
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Post by carlton43 on Jun 1, 2024 14:33:35 GMT
Labour out delivering in Copnor. Wot?? Are they some sort of order of peripatetic midwives? |
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Post by finsobruce on Jun 1, 2024 14:35:21 GMT
Labour out delivering in Copnor. Wot?? Are they some sort of order of peripatetic midwives? *Pregnant pause* |
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 9,141
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Post by cogload on Jun 1, 2024 14:45:11 GMT
And a leaflet through my letter box. A3 double sided size. Pretty sombre content in some respects - basically "we are in the shit and I can't promise the earth but I will do my best to help clear the mess up".
Union flag on the front and inside 5 personal pledges which aren't that much cop; "I will be honest": well, yes I hope you are; and interestingly frothing at the Tories for the state of the city centre and not the local administration (LD). Although the city centre isn't part of her constituency.
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Post by finsobruce on Jun 1, 2024 15:10:02 GMT
And a leaflet through my letter box. A3 double sided size. Pretty sombre content in some respects - basically "we are in the shit and I can't promise the earth but I will do my best to help clear the mess up". Union flag on the front and inside 5 personal pledges which aren't that much cop; "I will be honest": well, yes I hope you are; and interestingly frothing at the Tories for the state of the city centre and not the local administration (LD). Although the city centre isn't part of her constituency. But presumably people from Portsmouth North do go there occasionally?  |
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 9,141
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Post by cogload on Jun 1, 2024 15:15:51 GMT
And a leaflet through my letter box. A3 double sided size. Pretty sombre content in some respects - basically "we are in the shit and I can't promise the earth but I will do my best to help clear the mess up". Union flag on the front and inside 5 personal pledges which aren't that much cop; "I will be honest": well, yes I hope you are; and interestingly frothing at the Tories for the state of the city centre and not the local administration (LD). Although the city centre isn't part of her constituency. But presumably people from Portsmouth North do go there occasionally? Occasionally...most aim for Gunwharf these days tbh. It is looking pretty sad.. |
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Post by jamesdoyle on Jun 1, 2024 15:32:05 GMT
But presumably people from Portsmouth North do go there occasionally? Occasionally...most aim for Gunwharf these days tbh. It is looking pretty sad.. Once U Need Us went, that was it for me  |
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tonyhil
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Post by tonyhil on Jun 1, 2024 18:26:43 GMT
The Portsmouth Independent Party leader is standing here, I believe. My gut feeling, based on very little except the general disaffection with all the political parties, is that he could do surprisingly well. Whether that harms Labour or the Conservatives more I don't know.
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joe
Non-Aligned
Posts: 38
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Post by joe on Jun 1, 2024 18:49:40 GMT
The Portsmouth Independent Party leader is standing here, I believe. My gut feeling, based on very little except the general disaffection with all the political parties, is that he could do surprisingly well. Whether that harms Labour or the Conservatives more I don't know. as someone lives in the constituency I suspect it will keep Penny Mordant as the mp |
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 12,011
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Post by Khunanup on Jun 1, 2024 19:54:21 GMT
The Portsmouth Independent Party leader is standing here, I believe. My gut feeling, based on very little except the general disaffection with all the political parties, is that he could do surprisingly well. Whether that harms Labour or the Conservatives more I don't know. No he's not. Announced today that he's backing Mordaunt, mainly because he's not a fan of the Labour candidate apparently. Expect a hefty Reform vote now. |
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Post by sinisterdexter on Jun 2, 2024 15:46:41 GMT
It seems a strange decision by him. Difficult to portray themselves as an alternative to the Tories on a local level now?
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
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Post by Khunanup on Jun 2, 2024 17:58:35 GMT
It seems a strange decision by him. Difficult to portray themselves as an alternative to the Tories on a local level now? I think it can be summed up as 'I can't win so I won't bother'. He does appear to have a genuine dislike for the Labour candidate too. |
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Jun 2, 2024 19:16:52 GMT
Labour out delivering in Copnor. Wot?? Are they some sort of order of peripatetic midwives? You of all people will be familiar with the episode in the film of Tom Jones where Tom's hapless father fails as a highwayman. From memory: "Stand and deliver!" "What do you think I am, a midwife? Drive on!" |
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