Portsmouth North

[Tony Otim]

Even better for the Labour bar charts...

Portsmouth Conservatives own polling shows...

[john07]

May 1, 2024 16:55:11 GMT YL said:

Questions asked in this poll, in the order they appear in the tables, which I assume is the order in which they were asked:

- "What is your main source of getting local news?"

- "What are the main national problems?"

- "What are the main problems in the area where you live?"

- "Can you tell me the name of the MP representing your area?" (83% answered correctly)

- "How would you rate Penny Mordaunt?" (only asked to those who had named her on the previous question, ratings from 1 to 10)

- "If there was a General Election tomorrow, would you go to vote?"

- "Which political party would you vote for?"

- "If Penny Mordaunt was not the Conservative Party candidate, which political party would you vote for?"

I've seen worse, but this is hardly ideal survey design.

Edit: oh, and it might not come as a great surprise to know that the client was Portsmouth North Conservative Association.

About as useful as the eponymous leaked Lib Dem ‘canvas returns’.

[iain]

May 1, 2024 16:55:11 GMT YL said:

Questions asked in this poll, in the order they appear in the tables, which I assume is the order in which they were asked:

- "What is your main source of getting local news?"

- "What are the main national problems?"

- "What are the main problems in the area where you live?"

- "Can you tell me the name of the MP representing your area?" (83% answered correctly)

- "How would you rate Penny Mordaunt?" (only asked to those who had named her on the previous question, ratings from 1 to 10)

- "If there was a General Election tomorrow, would you go to vote?"

- "Which political party would you vote for?"

- "If Penny Mordaunt was not the Conservative Party candidate, which political party would you vote for?"

I've seen worse, but this is hardly ideal survey design.

Edit: oh, and it might not come as a great surprise to know that the client was Portsmouth North Conservative Association.

Oh dear. In its question ordering that is rather reminiscent of the (wildly overoptimistic) “leaked” internal Lib Dem push polls ahead of 2015.

[right]

May 1, 2024 16:55:11 GMT YL said:

Questions asked in this poll, in the order they appear in the tables, which I assume is the order in which they were asked:

- "What is your main source of getting local news?"

- "What are the main national problems?"

- "What are the main problems in the area where you live?"

- "Can you tell me the name of the MP representing your area?" (83% answered correctly)

- "How would you rate Penny Mordaunt?" (only asked to those who had named her on the previous question, ratings from 1 to 10)

- "If there was a General Election tomorrow, would you go to vote?"

- "Which political party would you vote for?"

- "If Penny Mordaunt was not the Conservative Party candidate, which political party would you vote for?"

I've seen worse, but this is hardly ideal survey design.

Edit: oh, and it might not come as a great surprise to know that the client was Portsmouth North Conservative Association.

83% unprompted name recognition seems quite impressive. I'm not sure whether there aresimilar results polls on name recognition, but I get the impression that pushing past 80% will always be hard considering the forgetful, apathetic and recently arrived.

[Khunanup]

Notably no mention of Portsmouth Independents who are very likely to stand (and have a significant impact on the totals for just about everyone).

[carlton43]

May 1, 2024 19:40:05 GMT right said:

May 1, 2024 16:55:11 GMT YL said:

Questions asked in this poll, in the order they appear in the tables, which I assume is the order in which they were asked:

- "What is your main source of getting local news?"

- "What are the main national problems?"

- "What are the main problems in the area where you live?"

- "Can you tell me the name of the MP representing your area?" (83% answered correctly)

- "How would you rate Penny Mordaunt?" (only asked to those who had named her on the previous question, ratings from 1 to 10)

- "If there was a General Election tomorrow, would you go to vote?"

- "Which political party would you vote for?"

- "If Penny Mordaunt was not the Conservative Party candidate, which political party would you vote for?"

I've seen worse, but this is hardly ideal survey design.

Edit: oh, and it might not come as a great surprise to know that the client was Portsmouth North Conservative Association.

83% unprompted name recognition seems quite impressive. I'm not sure whether there aresimilar results polls on name recognition, but I get the impression that pushing past 80% will always be hard considering the forgetful, apathetic and recently arrived.

I consider it astonishing and probably completely wrong.

[The Bishop]

May 1, 2024 14:46:10 GMT right said:

That suggests a far higher underlying demographic swing to the Tories than I thought in this constituency. Wasn't it a 2010 switch? Although it may be hinting that a lot of the national Labour lead is illusory and gets shaken out when the question isn't "do you want to give the government one hell of a kicking".

I can believe Mordaunt's personal vote is at the higher end of the distribution, but the higher end isn't that high.

Even if we didn't know that this poll was rather shoddily constructed, that would still be a fair amount of wishcasting.

(not least because Mordaunt would have won the seat on its 2010 boundaries in 2005, it would also have been much more marginal in 1997 and 2001)

[jamie]

May 2, 2024 14:46:39 GMT The Bishop said:

(not least because Mordaunt would have won the seat on its 2010 boundaries in 2005, it would also have been much more marginal in 1997 and 2001)

Is there a notional estimate for 2005 anywhere?

[iain]

May 2, 2024 16:20:37 GMT jamie said:

May 2, 2024 14:46:39 GMT The Bishop said:

(not least because Mordaunt would have won the seat on its 2010 boundaries in 2005, it would also have been much more marginal in 1997 and 2001)

Is there a notional estimate for 2005 anywhere?

It would still have been Labour held in 2005:
news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/election2010/results/constituency/d57.stm

The BBC still has all its 2010 constituency pages up which have the notional results for each seat.

[Pete Whitehead]

I was also under the misapprehension that this was notionally Conservative in 2005 but I've checked the book and the result is as stated on that BBC website. I wonder if mine and The Bishop 's confusion is caused by the fact that Anthony Wells had his own notional results on the Uk Polling site and on there it was notionally Conservative (it was neck and neck in either event - the boundary changes did reduce the Labour notional share by a couple of percent but that may only have been down to their vote being suppressed in the area coming in from Portsmouth South)

[tonyhil]

I know that two years is a long time in politics, but there will be the potential in 2026 for PiP to take control of Portsmouth. I hope that all three parties are having a good think about how to prevent that from happening.

[cogload]

I would note that the Labour PPC for Portsmouth North was beaten for the Cosham ward seat by PiP...

[Deleted]

Reminds me of the Observer poll in Enfield, Southgate in 1997. Expect this to feature in Labour's campaign for a Portillo moment here. 

[stb12]

May 16, 2024 14:03:55 GMT @weld said:

Reminds me of the Observer poll in Enfield, Southgate in 1997. Expect this to feature in Labour's campaign for a Portillo moment here. 

Maybe not quite an equivalence as Southgate was considered a solid safe Tory seat under all circumstances, whereas Labour held this when they were last in government

[johnloony]

May 16, 2024 16:00:08 GMT stb12 said:

May 16, 2024 14:03:55 GMT @weld said:

Reminds me of the Observer poll in Enfield, Southgate in 1997. Expect this to feature in Labour's campaign for a Portillo moment here. 

Maybe not quite an equivalence as Southgate was considered a solid safe Tory seat under all circumstances, whereas Labour held this when they were last in government

There aren't going to be any "Portillo moments" in the 2024 general election because the Portillo moment was a one-off. Even if it happens again, it wouldn't be as special and will be expected anyway. Even if Labour wins 450 seats and sweeps a whole load of safe Conservative seats, it will just happen and people will accept it as another 1997. When 1997 happened it was more dramatic than most people had expected.

[Deleted]

May 16, 2024 16:00:08 GMT stb12 said:

May 16, 2024 14:03:55 GMT @weld said:

Reminds me of the Observer poll in Enfield, Southgate in 1997. Expect this to feature in Labour's campaign for a Portillo moment here. 

Maybe not quite an equivalence as Southgate was considered a solid safe Tory seat under all circumstances, whereas Labour held this when they were last in government

Yes although the Tories did better in Portsmouth North in 2019 (61%) than in Enfield Southgate in 1992 (58%).

[swingometer]

May 16, 2024 16:00:08 GMT stb12 said:

May 16, 2024 14:03:55 GMT @weld said:

Reminds me of the Observer poll in Enfield, Southgate in 1997. Expect this to feature in Labour's campaign for a Portillo moment here. 

Maybe not quite an equivalence as Southgate was considered a solid safe Tory seat under all circumstances, whereas Labour held this when they were last in government

There were plenty of seats the Tories held in both the 74 elections and are now bellwether seats, some have drifted to Labour permanently post 1997

[YL]

May 16, 2024 14:03:55 GMT @weld said:

Reminds me of the Observer poll in Enfield, Southgate in 1997. Expect this to feature in Labour's campaign for a Portillo moment here. 

This junk poll (together with the reasons why I refer to it as such) has already been discussed in this thread.

[jakegb]

May 16, 2024 16:11:02 GMT johnloony said:

May 16, 2024 16:00:08 GMT stb12 said:

Maybe not quite an equivalence as Southgate was considered a solid safe Tory seat under all circumstances, whereas Labour held this when they were last in government

There aren't going to be any "Portillo moments" in the 2024 general election because the Portillo moment was a one-off. Even if it happens again, it wouldn't be as special and will be expected anyway. Even if Labour wins 450 seats and sweeps a whole load of safe Conservative seats, it will just happen and people will accept it as another 1997. When 1997 happened it was more dramatic than most people had expected.

Would wholeheartedly endorse this - the drama was also captured v well in the 97 highlights (with the Arthur theme music). 

Would argue that - contrary to media reports - there have been no serious sequels. Some point to Ed Balls - but him losing his seat was always a strong possibility following his 2010 performance. 
Perhaps, Mordaunt will be the closest imitation, given that she is a future leadership contender and holds a safe seat (by 2019 standards). But I can't somehow see the public at large say, "Were you up for Mordaunt?"

[Deleted]

May 16, 2024 18:49:47 GMT jakegb said:

May 16, 2024 16:11:02 GMT johnloony said:

There aren't going to be any "Portillo moments" in the 2024 general election because the Portillo moment was a one-off. Even if it happens again, it wouldn't be as special and will be expected anyway. Even if Labour wins 450 seats and sweeps a whole load of safe Conservative seats, it will just happen and people will accept it as another 1997. When 1997 happened it was more dramatic than most people had expected.

Would wholeheartedly endorse this - the drama was also captured v well in the 97 highlights (with the Arthur theme music). 

Would argue that - contrary to media reports - there have been no serious sequels. Some point to Ed Balls - but him losing his seat was always a strong possibility following his 2010 performance. 
Perhaps, Mordaunt will be the closest imitation, given that she is a future leadership contender and holds a safe seat (by 2019 standards). But I can't somehow see the public at large say, "Were you up for Mordaunt?"

"Were you up for Penny?"