stb12
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Post by stb12 on Mar 14, 2024 0:17:27 GMT
Portsmouth North
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 9,141
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Post by cogload on Mar 14, 2024 0:29:05 GMT
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 9,141
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Post by cogload on Apr 9, 2024 17:43:25 GMT
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Post by sinisterdexter on Apr 13, 2024 10:08:06 GMT
Interesting vox pop there. I think Mordaunt is reasonably popular in the constituency - she appears supportive of the RN and PFC, which always goes down well in the city - but when you examine her voting record, she's just another Tory. Wouldn't be surprised if she held on unfortunately, and if PIP stand she definitely will imo
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on Apr 13, 2024 11:34:09 GMT
Interesting vox pop there. I think Mordaunt is reasonably popular in the constituency - she appears supportive of the RN and PFC, which always goes down well in the city - but when you examine her voting record, she's just another Tory. Wouldn't be surprised if she held on unfortunately, and if PIP stand she definitely will imo Although someone could be considered a good local MP while still having a voting record loyal to the party whip, as I’m sure there’s a few different factors that can determine it |
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Post by eastmidlandsright on Apr 13, 2024 11:43:08 GMT
Interesting vox pop there. I think Mordaunt is reasonably popular in the constituency - she appears supportive of the RN and PFC, which always goes down well in the city - but when you examine her voting record, she's just another Tory. Wouldn't be surprised if she held on unfortunately, and if PIP stand she definitely will imo She has been a minister for almost all of the last 10 years (one 7 month gap July 2019 - February 2020) so it goes without saying that her voting record will look like that of the vast majority of Tory MPs. |
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Apr 13, 2024 11:44:03 GMT
Interesting vox pop there. I think Mordaunt is reasonably popular in the constituency - she appears supportive of the RN and PFC, which always goes down well in the city - but when you examine her voting record, she's just another Tory. Wouldn't be surprised if she held on unfortunately, and if PIP stand she definitely will imo And if she does could be the next leader of the opposition... |
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
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Post by cogload on May 1, 2024 12:57:57 GMT
She's in trouble.
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carlton43
Reform Party
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Post by carlton43 on May 1, 2024 13:17:11 GMT
But that should be peak Labour advantage. The campaign is likely to show contraction of lead. Reform are barely trending and for each new convert two may slipback into fear of a Labour gain? The ability for a Labour squeeze is very diminished. I think she will be OK. |
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iain
Lib Dem
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Post by iain on May 1, 2024 13:19:06 GMT
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on May 1, 2024 13:20:33 GMT
On the assumption that she can win back some of that reform vote it maybe isn’t the worst poll possible?
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Post by swingometer on May 1, 2024 13:21:30 GMT
Very interesting, personal vote perhaps |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on May 1, 2024 13:30:42 GMT
It's a constituency poll. Given their historical reliability, it's not safe to say much besides the fact that it shows the seat might be vulnerable but it's a tough nut to crack. Which is more or less what we were expecting already.
It certainly doesn't prove the existence or otherwise of a personal vote, as the change in vote share for Mordaunt is quite close to the change in national Conservative support.
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Post by willpower3 on May 1, 2024 13:31:55 GMT
Very interesting, personal vote perhaps Down by about as much as the Tories are nationally, but then again there is more room for it to fall in the seats they hold. |
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Post by woollyliberal on May 1, 2024 13:41:03 GMT
From Techne via email:
LONDON – A recent survey conducted by Techne UK has provided insightful data regarding The Rt. Hon. Penny Mordaunt MP’s strong standing in her parliamentary constituency of Portsmouth North. The findings suggest that Mordaunt, currently serving as the Leader of the House of Commons, is poised to retain her seat amidst a complex national political climate.
Polling Details and Key Findings:
Date of Poll: April 2024
Sample Size: 1,020 residents
Voting Intentions in a Hypothetical Immediate Election:
Conservative: 39%
Labour: 35%
Without Mordaunt as a Candidate:
Conservative: 34%
Labour: 36%
Personal Approval: 51% of participants rate Mordaunt highly (votes 9-10 on a scale of 10).
Primary Concerns: Cost of living (58%) and healthcare access (42%) are the top concerns among constituents.
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on May 1, 2024 14:43:44 GMT
I would have thought it's a very good poll for the Labour bar-chart makers...
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right
Conservative
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Post by right on May 1, 2024 14:46:10 GMT
From Techne via email: LONDON – A recent survey conducted by Techne UK has provided insightful data regarding The Rt. Hon. Penny Mordaunt MP’s strong standing in her parliamentary constituency of Portsmouth North. The findings suggest that Mordaunt, currently serving as the Leader of the House of Commons, is poised to retain her seat amidst a complex national political climate. Polling Details and Key Findings: Date of Poll: April 2024 Sample Size: 1,020 residents Voting Intentions in a Hypothetical Immediate Election: Conservative: 39% Labour: 35% Without Mordaunt as a Candidate: Conservative: 34% Labour: 36% Personal Approval: 51% of participants rate Mordaunt highly (votes 9-10 on a scale of 10). Primary Concerns: Cost of living (58%) and healthcare access (42%) are the top concerns among constituents. That suggests a far higher underlying demographic swing to the Tories than I thought in this constituency. Wasn't it a 2010 switch? Although it may be hinting that a lot of the national Labour lead is illusory and gets shaken out when the question isn't "do you want to give the government one hell of a kicking". I can believe Mordaunt's personal vote is at the higher end of the distribution, but the higher end isn't that high. |
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right
Conservative
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Post by right on May 1, 2024 14:46:41 GMT
I would have thought it's a very good poll for the Labour bar-chart makers... Careful not to mention her name I'd have thought. |
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Post by swingometer on May 1, 2024 16:27:57 GMT
From Techne via email: LONDON – A recent survey conducted by Techne UK has provided insightful data regarding The Rt. Hon. Penny Mordaunt MP’s strong standing in her parliamentary constituency of Portsmouth North. The findings suggest that Mordaunt, currently serving as the Leader of the House of Commons, is poised to retain her seat amidst a complex national political climate. Polling Details and Key Findings: Date of Poll: April 2024 Sample Size: 1,020 residents Voting Intentions in a Hypothetical Immediate Election: Conservative: 39% Labour: 35% Without Mordaunt as a Candidate: Conservative: 34% Labour: 36% Personal Approval: 51% of participants rate Mordaunt highly (votes 9-10 on a scale of 10). Primary Concerns: Cost of living (58%) and healthcare access (42%) are the top concerns among constituents. That suggests a far higher underlying demographic swing to the Tories than I thought in this constituency. Wasn't it a 2010 switch? Although it may be hinting that a lot of the national Labour lead is illusory and gets shaken out when the question isn't "do you want to give the government one hell of a kicking". I can believe Mordaunt's personal vote is at the higher end of the distribution, but the higher end isn't that high. This seat could be set to lose its bellwether status |
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YL
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Post by YL on May 1, 2024 16:55:11 GMT
Questions asked in this poll, in the order they appear in the tables, which I assume is the order in which they were asked:
- "What is your main source of getting local news?"
- "What are the main national problems?"
- "What are the main problems in the area where you live?"
- "Can you tell me the name of the MP representing your area?" (83% answered correctly)
- "How would you rate Penny Mordaunt?" (only asked to those who had named her on the previous question, ratings from 1 to 10)
- "If there was a General Election tomorrow, would you go to vote?"
- "Which political party would you vote for?"
- "If Penny Mordaunt was not the Conservative Party candidate, which political party would you vote for?"
I've seen worse, but this is hardly ideal survey design.
Edit: oh, and it might not come as a great surprise to know that the client was Portsmouth North Conservative Association.
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