Post by Robert Waller on Jan 25, 2024 1:43:20 GMT
The three paragraphs after the introductory are based on those on the previous Almanac board written by peterl. I am entirely responsible for the other seven.
Most of Portsmouth's well known landmarks, including in the city centre, around the harbour and dockyard, and in the Southsea neighbourhood, are in the Portsmouth South constituency. Portsmouth North is much less prominent in the nation’s history, but it is also an interesting and key seat in its own right.
Portsmouth as a whole offers hope for all three of the main parties in England. Portsmouth City Council was a second tier district in Hampshire from 1973 until 1996 and has been a unitary authority since. The Conservatives ran the council on a majority basis from 1973 until 1991 and on a minority basis from 1991 until 1994. Labour were in charge as a minority from 1994 to 1996, as a majority administration at the start of the unitary authority from 1996 to 2000 and as a minority again from 2000 to 2002. The Conservatives took back the council as a minority from 2002 to 2004. In 2004, the Lib Dems took control of Portsmouth for the first time as a minority, achieving majority control in 2009. The Conservatives returned to power as a minority administration in 2014, losing out to a Lib Dem minority in 2018. This remained the case after the most recent council elections in 2023.
The Portsmouth North constituency was created for the 1918 general election, abolished in 1950 and recreated for the February 1974 election. For most of its history, Portsmouth North has returned Conservative MPs. However, Labour members have represented the seat from 1945-50, from February 1974 to 1979 and from 1997 to 2010. There have been five MPs since the seat’s 1974 resurrection, and Penny Mordaunt is the current member. Despite being the largest party on Portsmouth council more often than not in the 21st century, the Liberal Democrats have enjoyed less support in North in parliamentary elections, though have surpassed 20% of the vote as recently as 2010. UKIP managed 19.1% and third place in 2015, but achieved nothing like this vote share either before or since. The highest Green percentage was 3.2% in 2015.
Portsmouth as a whole must be one of the most politically interesting places in the south of England. The council has alternated between all three major parties in the past few decades whilst the Portsmouth North seat alternates between Labour and Conservative. Lib Dem support is higher in Portsmouth South. Portsmouth North could be considered a bellwether seat, having voted for the party that won the general election nationally every election from October 1974 onwards. However, with a Tory majority of almost 16,000 in 2019, Labour will have to put in quite some effort to get the seat back. Both Portsmouth seats are completely unchanged in the 2023 boundary review as they were within 5% of the electoral quota at the time the Commission commenced their work.
Portsmouth North will still consist of the northern third of the densely populated Portsea Island and those parts of Portsmouth that lie on the ‘mainland’. Looking at the electoral map of the interior of the Portsmouth North constituency after the council elections of May 2023, it is a multi-coloured mosaic. There are seven fairly large wards with electorates between 9,800 and 11,100. Of these one each were taken by the Conservatives (Drayton & Farlington, which is across the narrow Portsbridge Creek from the bulk of the city), and Labour (Cosham, also off the island); and two by Liberal Democrats – Nelson in the north western corner of the island, and Baffins, the ward furthest south east towards Southsea and situated just east of Fratton, which is in the Portsmouth South division. Two of these are long term strongholds of their respective parties: Drayton & Farlington hasn’t been won by anyone but the Tories for over 50 years. Baffins has been Lib Dem since its creation in 2002 with only two aberrations – Conservative in 2008 and UKIP in 2014. Cosham, on the other hand has only been win by Labour in 2022 and 2023 following a long Tory run, basically since 2003; the LDs have only ever taken it once, in 2012. Nelson is a medium term case, having been Lib Dem since 2016.
The picture is however clouded by the fact that Independents won the other three wards within North in May 2023. This localist success is a phenomenon of the 2020s. Hilsea had been Conservative since 2003 though Labour could win it in the early Blair years. Next door and also at the top end of Portsea Island, Copnor was a 2023 gain and had been held by the Tories since 1999 with one successful UKIP intervention in 2014, when they took six wards across the city. Paulsgrove in the other hand , which can be placed as ‘mainland west’, was a Labour ward from 1973 to 2003, then deviated into Labour / Conservative marginality except for that UKIP year of 2014, and when the Independents first won it in 2021, it was the Tories who had been successful on the two previous occasions.
This is in spite of - or maybe nowadays because of – the nature of Paulsgrove as a social housing estate with a formidably grim reputation – this was the place where a paediatrician was forced to flee her house in 2000 by local vigilantes who could not tell the difference between that and a paedophile:
www.theguardian.com/uk/2000/aug/30/childprotection.society
Paulsgrove still had the highest level of social renting in the Portsmouth North constituency in the 2021 census – its East MSOA recorded 38% and Wymering (part of the same estate) 39%. In ‘the island’ section the only significant percentage was 23.1% in Hilsea. By contrast Drayton and Farlington was 78.5% owner occupied as was 84% of Cosham North and 77% of Cosham South. On the island, 79% of Anchorage Park & Copnor housing was also owned, as was 71% in Baffins. The most privately rented section (30-35%) is found in the tight knit terraces north of Fratton ward, in Alexandra Park and North End East MSOAs around the point where Copnor, Hilsea and Nelson wards meet.
The occupational class profile of Portsmouth North is slightly to the working class side of average. Overall the proportion of profession and managerial workers was exactly 30% in the 2021 census returns. Nowhere was there a very high concentration, but the highest were in the northern section across the narrow water: 41% in Cosham North, 40% in Drayton & Farlington. The highest in the Portsea Island element was Copnor & Anchorage, at 32%. Turning to the working class routine and semi-routine jobs, the highest proportion is in the Paulsgrove estate – 34% in Wymering, 36% in Paulsgrove East - and in the north west corner of Portsea, 34% in North End West and Whale Island (Whale Island is a an active naval base and hence not generally accessible, but it does still report to the census).
Educational qualification levels tend to vary along with occupation. 30% in Paulsgrove East and 28% in its neighbouring Wymering reported no educational qualifications. At the other end of the scale, 35% in Cosham North had university degrees, and over 30% in Cosham South. Overall though across the constituency the latter indicator was in the bottom quartile of all seats in England and Wales. Portsmouth North is 90% white; there are no high concentrations of ethnic minorities, but the largest number are in the private rented housing areas around Alexandra Park and south Hilsea. Overall housing deprivation levels are slightly higher than the national average, but reach 65% on the Paulsgrove estate and 60% in North End West & Whale Island.
Putting together the demographics with the latest local election results produces the apparently counterintuitive finding that the one ward Labour won within the North constituency in 2023, Cosham, was also that with the highest educational qualifications as well as being one of the most middle class in occupational terms. This might be a clue to a wider point. Labour might well regard Portsmouth North as a winnable target at the next general election; after all they won it the last time they were returned to government. However realignments in the bases of voter preferences have occurred since 1997 through 2005, and it may just be that North’s downmarket characteristics mean that Labour will be outsiders even at the time of probably national triumph in 2024. Unlike Portsmouth South, which they had not won in the 1960s or 1970s, or even the Blair years, but did in 2017 and 2019, North is too working class in its socio-economic profile and not ‘well’ educated enough. North has fewer students, fewer non-white residents, fewer university graduates, more routine and semi-routine workers. All of these things now hinder them electorally.
It also has a prominent Conservative MP who seems a good fit for the constituency. Penny Mordaunt is a former naval reservist from a fairly humble and fairly local background, a former Secretary of State for Defence, and a former candidate for the party leadership. If she were to be beaten in Portsmouth North it would be something of a ‘Portillo moment’, as she is a possible successor to Rishi Sunak. Even though it seems rather likely there will be cause for such a vacancy after a 2024 general election, it would nevertheless be something of a surprise if this seat then retains its bellwether status.
2021 Census
Age 65+ 16.7% 389/575
Owner occupied 64.6% 319/575
Private rented 20.1% 200/575
Social rented 15.3% 276/575
White 90.3% 287/575
Black 2.0% 228/575
Asian 4.8% 272/575
Managerial & professional 30.0% 355/575
Routine & Semi-routine 26.5% 192/575
Degree level 26.6% 450/575
No qualifications 19.7% 205/575
Students 5.8% 254/575
General Election 2019: Portsmouth North
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Penny Mordaunt 28,172 61.4 +6.6
Labour Amanda Martin 12,392 27.0 −6.7
Liberal Democrats Antonia Harrison 3,419 7.4 +1.9
Green Lloyd Day 1,304 2.8 +1.1
Independent George Madgwick 623 1.4 New
C Majority 15,780 34.4 +13.3
2019 electorate 71,299
Turnout 45,910 64.4 −1.7
Conservative hold
Swing 6.7 Lab to C
Boundary Changes
Unchanged seat
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/south-east/South%20East_349_Portsmouth%20North_Landscape.pdf
2019 notional result
Unchanged seat
Most of Portsmouth's well known landmarks, including in the city centre, around the harbour and dockyard, and in the Southsea neighbourhood, are in the Portsmouth South constituency. Portsmouth North is much less prominent in the nation’s history, but it is also an interesting and key seat in its own right.
Portsmouth as a whole offers hope for all three of the main parties in England. Portsmouth City Council was a second tier district in Hampshire from 1973 until 1996 and has been a unitary authority since. The Conservatives ran the council on a majority basis from 1973 until 1991 and on a minority basis from 1991 until 1994. Labour were in charge as a minority from 1994 to 1996, as a majority administration at the start of the unitary authority from 1996 to 2000 and as a minority again from 2000 to 2002. The Conservatives took back the council as a minority from 2002 to 2004. In 2004, the Lib Dems took control of Portsmouth for the first time as a minority, achieving majority control in 2009. The Conservatives returned to power as a minority administration in 2014, losing out to a Lib Dem minority in 2018. This remained the case after the most recent council elections in 2023.
The Portsmouth North constituency was created for the 1918 general election, abolished in 1950 and recreated for the February 1974 election. For most of its history, Portsmouth North has returned Conservative MPs. However, Labour members have represented the seat from 1945-50, from February 1974 to 1979 and from 1997 to 2010. There have been five MPs since the seat’s 1974 resurrection, and Penny Mordaunt is the current member. Despite being the largest party on Portsmouth council more often than not in the 21st century, the Liberal Democrats have enjoyed less support in North in parliamentary elections, though have surpassed 20% of the vote as recently as 2010. UKIP managed 19.1% and third place in 2015, but achieved nothing like this vote share either before or since. The highest Green percentage was 3.2% in 2015.
Portsmouth as a whole must be one of the most politically interesting places in the south of England. The council has alternated between all three major parties in the past few decades whilst the Portsmouth North seat alternates between Labour and Conservative. Lib Dem support is higher in Portsmouth South. Portsmouth North could be considered a bellwether seat, having voted for the party that won the general election nationally every election from October 1974 onwards. However, with a Tory majority of almost 16,000 in 2019, Labour will have to put in quite some effort to get the seat back. Both Portsmouth seats are completely unchanged in the 2023 boundary review as they were within 5% of the electoral quota at the time the Commission commenced their work.
Portsmouth North will still consist of the northern third of the densely populated Portsea Island and those parts of Portsmouth that lie on the ‘mainland’. Looking at the electoral map of the interior of the Portsmouth North constituency after the council elections of May 2023, it is a multi-coloured mosaic. There are seven fairly large wards with electorates between 9,800 and 11,100. Of these one each were taken by the Conservatives (Drayton & Farlington, which is across the narrow Portsbridge Creek from the bulk of the city), and Labour (Cosham, also off the island); and two by Liberal Democrats – Nelson in the north western corner of the island, and Baffins, the ward furthest south east towards Southsea and situated just east of Fratton, which is in the Portsmouth South division. Two of these are long term strongholds of their respective parties: Drayton & Farlington hasn’t been won by anyone but the Tories for over 50 years. Baffins has been Lib Dem since its creation in 2002 with only two aberrations – Conservative in 2008 and UKIP in 2014. Cosham, on the other hand has only been win by Labour in 2022 and 2023 following a long Tory run, basically since 2003; the LDs have only ever taken it once, in 2012. Nelson is a medium term case, having been Lib Dem since 2016.
The picture is however clouded by the fact that Independents won the other three wards within North in May 2023. This localist success is a phenomenon of the 2020s. Hilsea had been Conservative since 2003 though Labour could win it in the early Blair years. Next door and also at the top end of Portsea Island, Copnor was a 2023 gain and had been held by the Tories since 1999 with one successful UKIP intervention in 2014, when they took six wards across the city. Paulsgrove in the other hand , which can be placed as ‘mainland west’, was a Labour ward from 1973 to 2003, then deviated into Labour / Conservative marginality except for that UKIP year of 2014, and when the Independents first won it in 2021, it was the Tories who had been successful on the two previous occasions.
This is in spite of - or maybe nowadays because of – the nature of Paulsgrove as a social housing estate with a formidably grim reputation – this was the place where a paediatrician was forced to flee her house in 2000 by local vigilantes who could not tell the difference between that and a paedophile:
www.theguardian.com/uk/2000/aug/30/childprotection.society
Paulsgrove still had the highest level of social renting in the Portsmouth North constituency in the 2021 census – its East MSOA recorded 38% and Wymering (part of the same estate) 39%. In ‘the island’ section the only significant percentage was 23.1% in Hilsea. By contrast Drayton and Farlington was 78.5% owner occupied as was 84% of Cosham North and 77% of Cosham South. On the island, 79% of Anchorage Park & Copnor housing was also owned, as was 71% in Baffins. The most privately rented section (30-35%) is found in the tight knit terraces north of Fratton ward, in Alexandra Park and North End East MSOAs around the point where Copnor, Hilsea and Nelson wards meet.
The occupational class profile of Portsmouth North is slightly to the working class side of average. Overall the proportion of profession and managerial workers was exactly 30% in the 2021 census returns. Nowhere was there a very high concentration, but the highest were in the northern section across the narrow water: 41% in Cosham North, 40% in Drayton & Farlington. The highest in the Portsea Island element was Copnor & Anchorage, at 32%. Turning to the working class routine and semi-routine jobs, the highest proportion is in the Paulsgrove estate – 34% in Wymering, 36% in Paulsgrove East - and in the north west corner of Portsea, 34% in North End West and Whale Island (Whale Island is a an active naval base and hence not generally accessible, but it does still report to the census).
Educational qualification levels tend to vary along with occupation. 30% in Paulsgrove East and 28% in its neighbouring Wymering reported no educational qualifications. At the other end of the scale, 35% in Cosham North had university degrees, and over 30% in Cosham South. Overall though across the constituency the latter indicator was in the bottom quartile of all seats in England and Wales. Portsmouth North is 90% white; there are no high concentrations of ethnic minorities, but the largest number are in the private rented housing areas around Alexandra Park and south Hilsea. Overall housing deprivation levels are slightly higher than the national average, but reach 65% on the Paulsgrove estate and 60% in North End West & Whale Island.
Putting together the demographics with the latest local election results produces the apparently counterintuitive finding that the one ward Labour won within the North constituency in 2023, Cosham, was also that with the highest educational qualifications as well as being one of the most middle class in occupational terms. This might be a clue to a wider point. Labour might well regard Portsmouth North as a winnable target at the next general election; after all they won it the last time they were returned to government. However realignments in the bases of voter preferences have occurred since 1997 through 2005, and it may just be that North’s downmarket characteristics mean that Labour will be outsiders even at the time of probably national triumph in 2024. Unlike Portsmouth South, which they had not won in the 1960s or 1970s, or even the Blair years, but did in 2017 and 2019, North is too working class in its socio-economic profile and not ‘well’ educated enough. North has fewer students, fewer non-white residents, fewer university graduates, more routine and semi-routine workers. All of these things now hinder them electorally.
It also has a prominent Conservative MP who seems a good fit for the constituency. Penny Mordaunt is a former naval reservist from a fairly humble and fairly local background, a former Secretary of State for Defence, and a former candidate for the party leadership. If she were to be beaten in Portsmouth North it would be something of a ‘Portillo moment’, as she is a possible successor to Rishi Sunak. Even though it seems rather likely there will be cause for such a vacancy after a 2024 general election, it would nevertheless be something of a surprise if this seat then retains its bellwether status.
2021 Census
Age 65+ 16.7% 389/575
Owner occupied 64.6% 319/575
Private rented 20.1% 200/575
Social rented 15.3% 276/575
White 90.3% 287/575
Black 2.0% 228/575
Asian 4.8% 272/575
Managerial & professional 30.0% 355/575
Routine & Semi-routine 26.5% 192/575
Degree level 26.6% 450/575
No qualifications 19.7% 205/575
Students 5.8% 254/575
General Election 2019: Portsmouth North
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Penny Mordaunt 28,172 61.4 +6.6
Labour Amanda Martin 12,392 27.0 −6.7
Liberal Democrats Antonia Harrison 3,419 7.4 +1.9
Green Lloyd Day 1,304 2.8 +1.1
Independent George Madgwick 623 1.4 New
C Majority 15,780 34.4 +13.3
2019 electorate 71,299
Turnout 45,910 64.4 −1.7
Conservative hold
Swing 6.7 Lab to C
Boundary Changes
Unchanged seat
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/south-east/South%20East_349_Portsmouth%20North_Landscape.pdf
2019 notional result
Unchanged seat
