Foggy
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Post by Foggy on May 17, 2024 1:02:37 GMT
Would wholeheartedly endorse this - the drama was also captured v well in the 97 highlights (with the Arthur theme music). Would argue that - contrary to media reports - there have been no serious sequels. Some point to Ed Balls - but him losing his seat was always a strong possibility following his 2010 performance. Perhaps, Mordaunt will be the closest imitation, given that she is a future leadership contender and holds a safe seat (by 2019 standards). But I can't somehow see the public at large say, "Were you up for Mordaunt?" "Were you up for Penny?"  Like that sword at the Coronation, it wouldn't take a GE night to be up for her! |
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Max
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Post by Max on May 17, 2024 13:34:26 GMT
Would wholeheartedly endorse this - the drama was also captured v well in the 97 highlights (with the Arthur theme music). Would argue that - contrary to media reports - there have been no serious sequels. Some point to Ed Balls - but him losing his seat was always a strong possibility following his 2010 performance. Perhaps, Mordaunt will be the closest imitation, given that she is a future leadership contender and holds a safe seat (by 2019 standards). But I can't somehow see the public at large say, "Were you up for Mordaunt?" "Were you up for Penny?" "Were you up when the Penny dropped?" |
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john07
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Post by john07 on May 17, 2024 14:08:29 GMT
"Were you up for Penny?" "Were you up when the Penny dropped?" That would be a Penny Dreadful. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 17, 2024 14:11:53 GMT
Penny's loss would inspire many morda(u)nt pens.
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johnloony
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Post by johnloony on May 17, 2024 16:28:45 GMT
Penny's loss would inspire many morda(u)nt pens. Do you mean puns? Or pins? Or pans? |
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Post by batman on May 17, 2024 17:04:22 GMT
the latter, as this thread is in danger of going down the pan.
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bsjmcr
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Post by bsjmcr on May 20, 2024 8:53:05 GMT
There aren't going to be any "Portillo moments" in the 2024 general election because the Portillo moment was a one-off. Even if it happens again, it wouldn't be as special and will be expected anyway. Even if Labour wins 450 seats and sweeps a whole load of safe Conservative seats, it will just happen and people will accept it as another 1997. When 1997 happened it was more dramatic than most people had expected. Would wholeheartedly endorse this - the drama was also captured v well in the 97 highlights (with the Arthur theme music). Would argue that - contrary to media reports - there have been no serious sequels. Some point to Ed Balls - but him losing his seat was always a strong possibility following his 2010 performance. Perhaps, Mordaunt will be the closest imitation, given that she is a future leadership contender and holds a safe seat (by 2019 standards). But I can't somehow see the public at large say, "Were you up for Mordaunt?" Ahem, Nick Clegg in 2017? The less said about the Labour victor the better, but people didn’t know that at the time. I don’t think it was remarked on nearly enough that Sheffield Hallam had never been a Labour seat before, most viewers probably not surprised that a Sheffield seat would go Labour or ‘it was the students’ given the eponymous university (not in the Hallam constituency of course) I think there’ll be a lot of cheers from anyone affected by universal credit when Chingford is declared even if it’s not surprising. Other than Mordaunt, a Lib Dem scalp in ‘Godalming and Ash’ would be the next equivalent. And nervous Tory candidates barely hanging on in Richmond and Northallerton, and South West Norfolk would also be interesting to see. |
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on May 20, 2024 9:01:42 GMT
Reminds me of the Observer poll in Enfield, Southgate in 1997. Expect this to feature in Labour's campaign for a Portillo moment here. I think, as others have said, Portsmouth North is a seat that Labour have won in the past/ when they have formed governments before so shouldnt really be seen as a complete Portillo moment. I think 2 other things mean that Portillo moments are less impactful now are 1) The internet and social media - everyone who has more than a vague interest in politics can now get many more hints about what might be going on in a particular constituency than in 1997. In 1997 apart from that Observer poll, there was nothing else, aside from the national polls, to suggest that moment was coming. Now, any such potential moment will be discussed and mentioned ad nauseum on social media and probably vox popped too. 2) I think the turnover in Cabinet ministers under this government, and quite possibly future governments has an impact too- there just aren’t the people who hold senior/ any cabinet posts for a decent amount of time to build up a profile. |
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Ports
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Post by Ports on May 20, 2024 9:15:52 GMT
Had Theresa May and Boris Johnson stood again, and had either of them lost, I would've said both would've been more symbolic moments for the general audience.
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Post by batman on May 20, 2024 11:43:56 GMT
I tend to think that the person Labour would REALLY like to get rid of, in a non-straightforward contest, is Jacob Rees-Mogg. Iain Duncan Smith is hated in Labour circles but hardly anybody gives him any chance of survival. Jonathan Gullis would be up there too although he also looks like a goner at this stage.
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msc
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Post by msc on May 20, 2024 12:35:51 GMT
Iain Duncan Smith is hated in Labour circles but hardly anybody gives him any chance of survival. Although not in Labour Circles, I'm not counting any chickens until I've seen the declaration on the night. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 20, 2024 12:44:53 GMT
I tend to think that the person Labour would REALLY like to get rid of, in a non-straightforward contest, is Jacob Rees-Mogg. Iain Duncan Smith is hated in Labour circles but hardly anybody gives him any chance of survival. Jonathan Gullis would be up there too although he also looks like a goner at this stage. However, Rees-Mogg's seat was Labour before. I think Jeremy Hunt may actually be the best example but maybe that's a discussion for the Godalming & Ash thread. |
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on May 20, 2024 13:47:31 GMT
I tend to think that the person Labour would REALLY like to get rid of, in a non-straightforward contest, is Jacob Rees-Mogg. Iain Duncan Smith is hated in Labour circles but hardly anybody gives him any chance of survival. Jonathan Gullis would be up there too although he also looks like a goner at this stage. I know IDS has the association with welfare reforms but has the feeling towards him not died down at all when he’s been out of government for over six years now? |
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Ports
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Post by Ports on May 20, 2024 14:59:18 GMT
I tend to think that the person Labour would REALLY like to get rid of, in a non-straightforward contest, is Jacob Rees-Mogg. Iain Duncan Smith is hated in Labour circles but hardly anybody gives him any chance of survival. Jonathan Gullis would be up there too although he also looks like a goner at this stage. I know IDS has the association with welfare reforms but has the feeling towards him not died down at all when he’s been out of government for over six years now? Perhaps it's fair to say the opinion has died down a little without having *changed* - he isn't known for anything new that is noteworthy to the average person, even if he understandably no longer *appears* to hold as much responsibility for people's everyday struggles. |
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Post by batman on May 20, 2024 15:01:04 GMT
I tend to think that the person Labour would REALLY like to get rid of, in a non-straightforward contest, is Jacob Rees-Mogg. Iain Duncan Smith is hated in Labour circles but hardly anybody gives him any chance of survival. Jonathan Gullis would be up there too although he also looks like a goner at this stage. I know IDS has the association with welfare reforms but has the feeling towards him not died down at all when he’s been out of government for over six years now? only very slightly. |
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on May 20, 2024 15:11:42 GMT
I know IDS has the association with welfare reforms but has the feeling towards him not died down at all when he’s been out of government for over six years now? Perhaps it's fair to say the opinion has died down a little without having *changed* - he isn't known for anything new that is noteworthy to the average person, even if he understandably no longer *appears* to hold as much responsibility for people's everyday struggles. The only thing I’ve really noticed about him for a while is being a huge China critic |
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on May 20, 2024 15:13:34 GMT
Just to correct myself on that point above IDS resigned in March 2016 and never returned to government so actually over eight years
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nyx
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Post by nyx on May 20, 2024 16:12:30 GMT
In terms of the sheer level of shock, considering that people are already expecting a landslide loss for the Tories, I think the only seat that could really be on the same scale as the Portillo moment would be Sunak losing Richmond and Northallerton.
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jamie
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Post by jamie on May 20, 2024 16:32:14 GMT
I tend to think that the person Labour would REALLY like to get rid of, in a non-straightforward contest, is Jacob Rees-Mogg. Iain Duncan Smith is hated in Labour circles but hardly anybody gives him any chance of survival. Jonathan Gullis would be up there too although he also looks like a goner at this stage. However, Rees-Mogg's seat was Labour before. I think Jeremy Hunt may actually be the best example but maybe that's a discussion for the Godalming & Ash thread. Was it on the new boundaries? |
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on May 20, 2024 16:34:58 GMT
In terms of the sheer level of shock, considering that people are already expecting a landslide loss for the Tories, I think the only seat that could really be on the same scale as the Portillo moment would be Sunak losing Richmond and Northallerton. John Howard moment |
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