right
Conservative
Posts: 18,761
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Post by right on Jun 27, 2024 14:07:31 GMT
The Muslim share isn't high enough for Galloway to win this in a General Election.
It wasn't much different to Ilford North (30.2% and 30.6% respectively on new boundaries) at the last census, however you seem to rate Leanne Mohamad's chances there more. Is there anything else about each seat or candidate in particular that's inclined you to do so, or is this mainly based on vibes?
Also Galloway is the only Muslim friendly candidate who's got a proven ability to catch large numbers of votes outside the community. |
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birkinabe
Non-Aligned
winning here
Posts: 155
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Post by birkinabe on Jun 27, 2024 14:13:13 GMT
Also Galloway is the only Muslim friendly candidate who's got a proven ability to catch large numbers of votes outside the community. To be fair, relating to stuff @weld has said on the Ilford North thread before, I think Mohamad might also end up proving to have an advantage in that regard, especially relative to Akhmed Yakoob and other similar independents and WPB candidates.
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bsjmcr
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,591 
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Rochdale
Jul 3, 2024 18:30:51 GMT
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Post by bsjmcr on Jul 3, 2024 18:30:51 GMT
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nesta
Non-Aligned
Posts: 4
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Post by nesta on Jul 3, 2024 18:43:12 GMT
Many Tory and Lib Dem voters in the east of the constituency in wards like Wardle and West Littleborough, Littleborough Lakeside and Milnrow & Newhey are voting tactically for Labour to beat Galloway.
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,892
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Post by Tony Otim on Jul 3, 2024 19:03:47 GMT
Presumably we'll be able to tell how it's looking by if Galloway bothers to turn up to or hang around at the count...
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Jul 3, 2024 20:35:24 GMT
Based on this tweet then Waugh has won the leaflet battle hands down with as I can see just the ‘newspaper’ from GG. Not sure which ward the poster is from though. |
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,905
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Post by YL on Jul 3, 2024 20:52:28 GMT
According to the profile they're in Littleborough. |
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,905
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Post by YL on Jul 4, 2024 23:27:50 GMT
A report from the count suggests Galloway is losing:
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Rochdale
Jul 5, 2024 1:39:32 GMT
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Post by Yaffles on Jul 5, 2024 1:39:32 GMT
A report from the count suggests Galloway is losing: I can go to bed happy now … best result of the night so far |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 5, 2024 14:50:02 GMT
Too close for comfort, but given other results in similar seats I will take it.
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Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group.
Posts: 9,729
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Rochdale
Jul 5, 2024 20:01:48 GMT
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Post by Chris from Brum on Jul 5, 2024 20:01:48 GMT
Too close for comfort, but given other results in similar seats I will take it. Might this be his last stand in parliamentary politics? One would like to hope so, but he's like a bad penny and keeps turning up. Whither the WPGB now? Without their main attraction and figurehead in Parliament, will they collapse as so many of Gorgeous George's previous political vehicles have done? |
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Post by batman on Jul 5, 2024 20:06:54 GMT
The WPB (not GB) was around for quite a long time before the Rochdale by-election and may possibly survive his defeat. Depends whether he's had enough, or whether anyone else such as Voldemort would be able to keep it going if he has.
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Rochdale
Jul 5, 2024 20:11:15 GMT
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Post by Ron Swanson on Jul 5, 2024 20:11:15 GMT
Too close for comfort, but given other results in similar seats I will take it. Might this be his last stand in parliamentary politics? One would like to hope so, but he's like a bad penny and keeps turning up. Whither the WPGB now? Without their main attraction and figurehead in Parliament, will they collapse as so many of Gorgeous George's previous political vehicles have done? Unless there is a by-election in an electoral backwater in a year or so… I think he’s done. In that instance you’d advise the main parties to select a Muslim candidate (probably male) from their membership. These WPGB types are vile, and need surpressing. |
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Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group.
Posts: 9,729
Member is Online
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Post by Chris from Brum on Jul 5, 2024 20:13:43 GMT
Might this be his last stand in parliamentary politics? One would like to hope so, but he's like a bad penny and keeps turning up. Whither the WPGB now? Without their main attraction and figurehead in Parliament, will they collapse as so many of Gorgeous George's previous political vehicles have done? Unless there is a by-election in an electoral backwater in a year or so… I think he’s done. In that instance you’d advise the main parties to select a Muslim candidate (probably male) from their membership. These WPGB types are vile, and need surpressing. Labour tried that in the by-election, and that didn't work so well. They've now won with a white male, albeit one with origins in the town. |
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Post by finsobruce on Jul 5, 2024 20:31:24 GMT
Might this be his last stand in parliamentary politics? One would like to hope so, but he's like a bad penny and keeps turning up. Whither the WPGB now? Without their main attraction and figurehead in Parliament, will they collapse as so many of Gorgeous George's previous political vehicles have done? Unless there is a by-election in an electoral backwater in a year or so… I think he’s done. In that instance you’d advise the main parties to select a Muslim candidate (probably male) from their membership. These WPGB types are vile, and need surpressing. I hope you are right, but he's been written off before... |
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birkinabe
Non-Aligned
winning here
Posts: 155
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Post by birkinabe on Jul 8, 2024 14:23:33 GMT
Many Tory and Lib Dem voters in the east of the constituency in wards like Wardle and West Littleborough, Littleborough Lakeside and Milnrow & Newhey are voting tactically for Labour to beat Galloway. Looking at the vote and vote share changes relative to 2019 this does indeed seem to be what did it in for Galloway here; possible precedent for what might happen in seats won by Gaza independents next time around? |
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Post by Johncrane on Jul 8, 2024 15:13:58 GMT
Many Tory and Lib Dem voters in the east of the constituency in wards like Wardle and West Littleborough, Littleborough Lakeside and Milnrow & Newhey are voting tactically for Labour to beat Galloway. Looking at the vote and vote share changes relative to 2019 this does indeed seem to be what did it in for Galloway here; possible precedent for what might happen in seats won by Gaza independents next time around? Potentially, but these independents would need to be controversial like George which isn't necessarily guaranteed, not to mention labours own popularity might take a hit in the next general election |
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birkinabe
Non-Aligned
winning here
Posts: 155
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Post by birkinabe on Jul 8, 2024 16:40:13 GMT
Looking at the vote and vote share changes relative to 2019 this does indeed seem to be what did it in for Galloway here; possible precedent for what might happen in seats won by Gaza independents next time around? Potentially, but these independents would need to be controversial like George which isn't necessarily guaranteed, not to mention labours own popularity might take a hit in the next general election
All fair points, however there might well be significant numbers of voters in these constituencies that are disgruntled enough with their local MP having been elected on the basis of this particular issue that they'll vote tactically next time anyway, regardless of Labour's unpopularity (especially if they're pretty much guaranteed to lose the general election overall) or the individual merits of each independent.
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,892
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Post by Tony Otim on Jul 12, 2024 12:52:13 GMT
Potentially, but these independents would need to be controversial like George which isn't necessarily guaranteed, not to mention labours own popularity might take a hit in the next general election All fair points, however there might well be significant numbers of voters in these constituencies that are disgruntled enough with their local MP having been elected on the basis of this particular issue that they'll vote tactically next time anyway, regardless of Labour's unpopularity (especially if they're pretty much guaranteed to lose the general election overall) or the individual merits of each independent.
By 2029 I suspect a lot more would depend on how those individual MPs have performed in the meantime - I suspect some may be better than others... |
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Jul 18, 2024 3:56:33 GMT
I won't link the video because life's too short. Just to say that George has alleged "Zionist electoral fraud" and will embark on a Stop the Steal -type legal campaign to overturn the result in Rochdale  |
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