right
Conservative
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Post by right on Jun 24, 2024 20:30:23 GMT
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Post by johnloony on Jun 24, 2024 22:27:22 GMT
Conjuring up a fictitious electoral pact between Conservative, Reform, and local businessman? When I stood as an OMRLP candidate I occasionally claimed the support of all the non-voters. Maybe I wasn’t imaginative enough. |
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Post by batman on Jun 24, 2024 22:35:42 GMT
I have been in e-mail contact today with a long-time acquaintance who lives in the London area these days, but comes from Rochdale & still has a considerable profile in its community. He says that he has been doorknocking for Labour in the constituency, and also Heywood & Middleton N. He reckons that Waugh is a slight favourite, but that it looks very close & will come down to turnout.
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bsjmcr
Non-Aligned
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Post by bsjmcr on Jun 24, 2024 22:50:08 GMT
I have been in e-mail contact today with a long-time acquaintance who lives in the London area these days, but comes from Rochdale & still has a considerable profile in its community. He says that he has been doorknocking for Labour in the constituency, and also Heywood & Middleton N. He reckons that Waugh is a slight favourite, but that it looks very close & will come down to turnout. It is interesting to see - at first I thought that Rochdale would easily do a Bradford West 2015 and soundly defeat GG but as you say it sounds closer than that perhaps there is an element of Galloway 'hasn't had a chance' to do much over a few months (whereas in Bradford he had 3 years to make a mark which he obviously didn't - plus it helps him now that Gaza is still an ongoing issue) and there seems to be little name recognition for Waugh - perhaps not his fault he was relatively recently selected, but given history Rochdale is not simply a 'safe labour seat' given how they have been happy to vote against Labour in the past, there is no room for complacency, and as I said earlier it doesn't help that though he is a locally-born man who has just come back, he probably doesn't have many community ties (as opposed to say being a councillor) whereas GG has obviously had some time to get his bread buttered locally and an address registered there... I wonder if Waugh had been chosen for the by-election, been defeated, and re-selected, might he be a bit more in the lead having had more time to bed himself in? Speaking of H&MN, I was driving through Middleton the other day (I think the Hopwood Hall area) and saw several Blundell garden posts. Something unthinkable here in Bury South - we have never had a culture of posters or garden stakes round here, be it local or national elections. I haven't been to North recently but I was at sixth form there in 2015 where every other house seemed to have a Frith poster which is why it was a shock to me that he lost in 2015... |
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right
Conservative
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Post by right on Jun 25, 2024 10:21:33 GMT
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,712
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Post by CatholicLeft on Jun 25, 2024 11:59:39 GMT
George Galloway's public affirmation of his Catholic faith (something he was coy about for a long time for...reasons) is interesting and is a clever tactic. Rochdale has long had a strong Catholic voting bloc who, not least due to a strong anti-Catholic tradition in parts of the town (not least in the old Milnrow UDC area), has been particularly politically engaged; a strong group of practising Catholic activists exists in both the local Labour and Lib Dem parties.
In my time, Liz Lynne, Lorna Fitzsimons and Paul Rowen (a member of my parish) all actively courted the Catholic vote. As I have mentioned before, I was in Rochdale to celebrate a Requiem Mass for a remarkable charity worker (founded an Aids charity for orphans in Easter Europe and got them out of their dreadful situations and into loving homes) who was very much a Labour voter and the church was crowded with local, very politically engaged (charity work, etc) Catholics, not one of whom was engaged with the byelection.
I think the picture with the Pope, with the cringey "Rochdale" commentary is a bit too in your face, to be honest.
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right
Conservative
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Rochdale
Jun 25, 2024 12:06:15 GMT
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Post by right on Jun 25, 2024 12:06:15 GMT
George Galloway's public affirmation of his Catholic faith (something he was coy about for a long time for...reasons) is interesting and is a clever tactic. Rochdale has long had a strong Catholic voting bloc who, not least due to a strong anti-Catholic tradition in parts of the town (not least in the old Milnrow UDC area), has been particularly politically engaged; a strong group of practising Catholic activists exists in both the local Labour and Lib Dem parties. In my time, Liz Lynne, Lorna Fitzsimons and Paul Rowen (a member of my parish) all actively courted the Catholic vote. As I have mentioned before, I was in Rochdale to celebrate a Requiem Mass for a remarkable charity worker (founded an Aids charity for orphans in Easter Europe and got them out of their dreadful situations and into loving homes) who was very much a Labour voter and the church was crowded with local, very politically engaged (charity work, etc) Catholics, not one of whom was engaged with the byelection. I think the picture with the Pope, with the cringey "Rochdale" commentary is a bit too in your face, to be honest. Those of us engaged or obsessed with politics can tend to be too sensitive to the crime factor |
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Merseymike
Independent
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Rochdale
Jun 25, 2024 12:15:30 GMT
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Post by Merseymike on Jun 25, 2024 12:15:30 GMT
Certainly Galloway is/was a Catholic, but Cyril Smith and Liz Lynne are Unitarians.
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,712
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Post by CatholicLeft on Jun 25, 2024 12:33:13 GMT
Certainly Galloway is/was a Catholic, but Cyril Smith and Liz Lynne are Unitarians. Didn't stop both of them campaigning for Catholic votes, Cyril Smith quite successfully for a long time. |
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
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Post by CatholicLeft on Jun 25, 2024 12:34:00 GMT
George Galloway's public affirmation of his Catholic faith (something he was coy about for a long time for...reasons) is interesting and is a clever tactic. Rochdale has long had a strong Catholic voting bloc who, not least due to a strong anti-Catholic tradition in parts of the town (not least in the old Milnrow UDC area), has been particularly politically engaged; a strong group of practising Catholic activists exists in both the local Labour and Lib Dem parties. In my time, Liz Lynne, Lorna Fitzsimons and Paul Rowen (a member of my parish) all actively courted the Catholic vote. As I have mentioned before, I was in Rochdale to celebrate a Requiem Mass for a remarkable charity worker (founded an Aids charity for orphans in Easter Europe and got them out of their dreadful situations and into loving homes) who was very much a Labour voter and the church was crowded with local, very politically engaged (charity work, etc) Catholics, not one of whom was engaged with the byelection. I think the picture with the Pope, with the cringey "Rochdale" commentary is a bit too in your face, to be honest. Those of us engaged or obsessed with politics can tend to be too sensitive to the crime factor Sorry, I don't understand your point. |
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right
Conservative
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Rochdale
Jun 25, 2024 12:36:25 GMT
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Post by right on Jun 25, 2024 12:36:25 GMT
Those of us engaged or obsessed with politics can tend to be too sensitive to the crime factor Sorry, I don't understand your point. Meant cringe factor A message that may seem simplistic, sentimental or too repeated to us may be quite powerful to a swing voter |
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,712
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Post by CatholicLeft on Jun 25, 2024 12:42:38 GMT
Sorry, I don't understand your point. Meant cringe factor A message that may seem simplistic, sentimental or too repeated to us may be quite powerful to a swing voter I agree with the cringe factor. some people see things in different ways. |
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Jun 26, 2024 16:51:58 GMT
Galloway has done an interview with Piers Morgan, which will go live at 20:00 on YouTube. Interestingly though, Galloway claims that he was also a victim of the Baby Reindeer stalker.
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Post by johnloony on Jun 26, 2024 16:58:22 GMT
Galloway has done an interview with Piers Morgan, which will go live at 20:00 on YouTube. Interestingly though, Galloway claims that he was also a victim of the Baby Reindeer stalker. Who? Who are they talking about? |
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Rochdale
Jun 26, 2024 17:06:20 GMT
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Jun 26, 2024 17:06:20 GMT
Galloway has done an interview with Piers Morgan, which will go live at 20:00 on YouTube. Interestingly though, Galloway claims that he was also a victim of the Baby Reindeer stalker. Who? Who are they talking about? Baby Reindeer is a, rather grim, Netflix drama about a crazed stalker called Martha who relentlessly stalks a comedian, a fictitious man who's real life counterpart is the writer and star of the series Richard Gadd, to an extreme degree. Following him around, standing outside his house staring, threats of violence, sending 41,000 emails etc. The woman whose crazed stalking of Gadd inspired that is Fiona Harvey. Allegedly ofc for legal reasons. |
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Rochdale
Jun 26, 2024 21:50:54 GMT
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Post by norflondon on Jun 26, 2024 21:50:54 GMT
Betting markets here suggests % chances are 66/33% Lab/WPB
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Jun 27, 2024 3:05:26 GMT
The Muslim share isn't high enough for Galloway to win this in a General Election. Paul Waugh is a decent bloke and a good choice (unlike some other picks), IMHO.
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
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Post by YL on Jun 27, 2024 6:21:54 GMT
Betting markets here suggests % chances are 66/33% Lab/WPB Just a reminder that they had the disowned Labour candidate as favourite for the by-election for a time on the day, and of the relation that bore to the actual result. |
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wallington
Green
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Post by wallington on Jun 27, 2024 8:54:47 GMT
Oh my gosh, they must be a big fan of the 1990's Green Party leaflet aesthetic up in Rochdale. |
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birkinabe
Non-Aligned
winning here
Posts: 155
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Post by birkinabe on Jun 27, 2024 13:56:29 GMT
The Muslim share isn't high enough for Galloway to win this in a General Election.
It wasn't much different to Ilford North (30.2% and 30.6% respectively on new boundaries) at the last census, however you seem to rate Leanne Mohamad's chances there more. Is there anything else about each seat or candidate in particular that's inclined you to do so, or is this mainly based on vibes?
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