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Post by batman on Jun 16, 2024 19:35:36 GMT
The Tory vote did fall here sharply in 2019 against the national trend. That may mean that the party's residual vote has less to fall now and may prove more sticky than many expect. The Tories might be in for a rude awakening in some seats where they believe 2019 was their 'floor' lol. As someone who lives in a ward that elected Tory Councillors from 1964 to 1998 inclusive (albeit the boundaries changed in 2002), I'd be careful about assuming Village is still rock solid for the blue side. However, it is demographically not dissimilar to Frognal (Camden) down the road from me which the Tories held with a swing in their favour in May. The Lib Dems will also be buoyed by the fact that NOC is quite likely here in 2026 and they are well-placed to be the largest party, although a majority is unlikely because they can't break through in Lower Morden and indeed require the Tories to hold up there for NOC to be on the cards. I wonder if such calculations about deals with Merton Tories play into how aggressively they're contesting this seat. Still, maybe the activists come from other areas and don't care about such fine scruples as the 2026 locals here. I'd say that Frognal is quite poor & gritty compared with large swathes of Village ward! |
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Post by bjornhattan on Jun 16, 2024 20:01:45 GMT
The Tories might be in for a rude awakening in some seats where they believe 2019 was their 'floor' lol. As someone who lives in a ward that elected Tory Councillors from 1964 to 1998 inclusive (albeit the boundaries changed in 2002), I'd be careful about assuming Village is still rock solid for the blue side. However, it is demographically not dissimilar to Frognal (Camden) down the road from me which the Tories held with a swing in their favour in May. The Lib Dems will also be buoyed by the fact that NOC is quite likely here in 2026 and they are well-placed to be the largest party, although a majority is unlikely because they can't break through in Lower Morden and indeed require the Tories to hold up there for NOC to be on the cards. I wonder if such calculations about deals with Merton Tories play into how aggressively they're contesting this seat. Still, maybe the activists come from other areas and don't care about such fine scruples as the 2026 locals here. I'd say that Frognal is quite poor & gritty compared with large swathes of Village ward! I remember walking from Putney, up the hill, and across Wimbledon Common one time. On the way up Putney high street I'd had a look at some estate agency windows at the prices (eye-watering but just about reasonable for what is a really desirable and pleasant area). An hour later, I passed some estate agents in Wimbledon Village and that fairly short walk seemed to have essentially doubled the house prices! And it's not just an area so expensive which is so expensive that otherwise genteel places look quite cheap in comparison. A huge proportion of homes are occupied by people who own them outright - far higher than anywhere else in Inner London and on many streets over 50% of households. This is an area of serious wealth - possibly among the wealthiest in Britain? |
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graham
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Post by graham on Jun 18, 2024 20:10:24 GMT
Ipsos Mori MRP survey has Wimbledon as - LD 33 Lab 32 Con 24. Labelled as a tossup.
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Wimbledon
Jun 19, 2024 16:49:11 GMT
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Post by londonseal80 on Jun 19, 2024 16:49:11 GMT
This seat will certainly be interesting been through this seat and have only seen Lib Dem posters and flags here do far (though it doesn’t always mean anything). Ditto Sutton and Cheam, seen quite a lot of Lib Dem flags in Epsom and Ewell and a handful of few Labour too though no Conservative ones. The only place I have seen a Tory poster was Carshalton and Wallington and then there were two Lib Dem ones nearby to that house as well. Seen nothing from any party in Mitcham and Morden or Tooting but that’s probably because they are rock solid safe Labour.
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steve
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Wimbledon
Jun 19, 2024 17:47:12 GMT
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Post by steve on Jun 19, 2024 17:47:12 GMT
Ipsos Mori MRP survey has Wimbledon as - LD 33 Lab 32 Con 24. Labelled as a tossup. Today's YouGov MRP poll: Lib Dems - 52 Con - 23 Lab - 13 Ref - 7 Green - 4 Lib Dem gain |
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Post by batman on Jun 19, 2024 18:34:47 GMT
This seat will certainly be interesting been through this seat and have only seen Lib Dem posters and flags here do far (though it doesn’t always mean anything). Ditto Sutton and Cheam, seen quite a lot of Lib Dem flags in Epsom and Ewell and a handful of few Labour too though no Conservative ones. The only place I have seen a Tory poster was Carshalton and Wallington and then there were two Lib Dem ones nearby to that house as well. Seen nothing from any party in Mitcham and Morden or Tooting but that’s probably because they are rock solid safe Labour. I was driving north from the Trafalgar pub up the Durnsford Road the Sunday before last & I did see one Labour garden stake in one of the roads on the left before the railway. |
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Post by batman on Jun 19, 2024 18:35:41 GMT
Ipsos Mori MRP survey has Wimbledon as - LD 33 Lab 32 Con 24. Labelled as a tossup. Today's YouGov MRP poll: Lib Dems - 52 Con - 23 Lab - 13 Ref - 7 Green - 4 Lib Dem gain I think Labour's vote will be somewhere in between these two "polls". I am voting for LD gain |
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Post by londonseal80 on Jun 20, 2024 17:26:46 GMT
Today's YouGov MRP poll: Lib Dems - 52 Con - 23 Lab - 13 Ref - 7 Green - 4 Lib Dem gain I think Labour's vote will be somewhere in between these two "polls". I am voting for LD gain Agree I go with LD 41 Lab 27 Con 21 Grn 6 Ref 5 |
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Post by monksfield on Jun 21, 2024 7:05:29 GMT
It feels like Wimbledon has more in common with the West London orange bloc than other nearby constituencies like Tooting, Battersea etc., so I suspect once the LibDems get in front here it’ll consolidate into a seat they win more often than not. I could see Putney going the same way eventually, but not for several cycles.
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Post by bjornhattan on Jun 21, 2024 11:38:17 GMT
It feels like Wimbledon has more in common with the West London orange bloc than other nearby constituencies like Tooting, Battersea etc., so I suspect once the LibDems get in front here it’ll consolidate into a seat they win more often than not. I could see Putney going the same way eventually, but not for several cycles. I suppose in theory the Lib Dems could win Putney, but Labour do have more inherent strength there than they do here (or in the Richmond/Kingston seats). It is quite a bit more socially mixed, and large council estates such as the various ones in Roehampton will always give Labour a strong base. If the Lib Dems do somehow win there it would probably be by taking the Tory vote - as seen in places like Hornsey and Wood Green. You'd then have Thamesfield ward and other affluent owner occupied areas around the town centre going Lib Dem while the estates up the hill remain staunchly Labour. |
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Wimbledon
Jun 21, 2024 16:52:34 GMT
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Post by londonseal80 on Jun 21, 2024 16:52:34 GMT
It feels like Wimbledon has more in common with the West London orange bloc than other nearby constituencies like Tooting, Battersea etc., so I suspect once the LibDems get in front here it’ll consolidate into a seat they win more often than not. I could see Putney going the same way eventually, but not for several cycles. Most of the seat - West Barnet, Rayners Park, Dundonald, Wim (Hill and Village) does. It’s only the parts of South Wimbledon going towards Morden and the area around the new AFC Wimbledon stadium that resemble Tooting. |
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Post by greenhert on Jun 21, 2024 20:46:15 GMT
It feels like Wimbledon has more in common with the West London orange bloc than other nearby constituencies like Tooting, Battersea etc., so I suspect once the LibDems get in front here it’ll consolidate into a seat they win more often than not. I could see Putney going the same way eventually, but not for several cycles. I suppose in theory the Lib Dems could win Putney, but Labour do have more inherent strength there than they do here (or in the Richmond/Kingston seats). It is quite a bit more socially mixed, and large council estates such as the various ones in Roehampton will always give Labour a strong base. If the Lib Dems do somehow win there it would probably be by taking the Tory vote - as seen in places like Hornsey and Wood Green. You'd then have Thamesfield ward and other affluent owner occupied areas around the town centre going Lib Dem while the estates up the hill remain staunchly Labour. Hornsey & Wood Green has unfortunately now been abolished-but there will definitely be quite a few seats vying to be just like it in terms of psephological patterns. |
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Jun 23, 2024 19:56:00 GMT
Tough titty in any case. There won't be another boundary review for years. What stops them from doing it the Canadian way, i.e. a Bill to rename constituencies? That law doesn't exist here (but it did? or it once could?) |
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maxque
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Post by maxque on Jun 23, 2024 20:59:26 GMT
What stops them from doing it the Canadian way, i.e. a Bill to rename constituencies? That law doesn't exist here (but it did? or it once could?) The Parliament is sovereign, it could pass a bill doing so if they wanted. |
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ll1975
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Post by ll1975 on Jun 24, 2024 10:42:21 GMT
About a year ago I would have had Wimbledon going to Labour, however, a couple of factors have made me shift towards thinking the LDs will get it. The boundary changes have brought in wards which are more likely to lean LD. Its also one of the seats where I think Labour's policy on VAT on private schools could be a factor. Anecdotally, I have a number of friends who live in Wimbledon who have historically voted Labour and send their kids to private schools, but specifically due to this policy are voting LD. Not likely to be large numbers, but in seats like this one 100 votes here, 100 votes there will possible make all the difference.
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right
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Post by right on Jul 2, 2024 21:49:19 GMT
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
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Post by cogload on Jul 4, 2024 8:06:57 GMT
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Post by johnloony on Jul 4, 2024 11:49:13 GMT
My brain has an irrationally strong dislike of the fact that the LIb Dems are competitive in Wimbledon. The fact that Labour won Wimbledon in 1997 makes me think that if the Conservative Party loses Wimbledon, then it “should” be Labour which wins it, and that it’s none of the Lib Dems’ business to even come close. |
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
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Post by cogload on Jul 4, 2024 11:54:11 GMT
Labour may still win the seat. It is one picture at a certain time of day, there are no guarantees; especially for us.
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Post by aargauer on Jul 4, 2024 11:58:51 GMT
Labour may still win the seat. It is one picture at a certain time of day, there are no guarantees; especially for us. I think its very unlikely. |
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