Wimbledon

[stb12]

Wimbledon

[cogload]

If the Tory vote craters here where does it go to? And if it holds up this seat could be a 3 way spiderman meme.

I imagine there will be an awful lot of LD activists helping out from the likes of Richmond Park and Twickenham. Brace yourselves!

[sonofkrautrock]

Tories likely to be third.

[anthony]

Whilst Labour locally are putting in a show (because they fear for their council majority), if you put a Wimbledon post-code into the national Labour party website you're told "We've identified battleground seats that are crucial to secure a Labour victory. Our top choice for you is Croydon South."

On the doorstep relatively few people who actively want Labour - some who simply want the Tories out - and plenty saying "never again" to the Conservatives. The Lib Dem candidate is well-known. The boundary changes bring in parts of Kingston and Surbiton.

I'm not convinced the Tories will be third however.

[batman]

No, Labour are trying because they think they can win here. I'm not saying that they will, but they are fighting to win. You don't need to do Lib Dem squeeze leaflets here in this forum. This part of the forum is for non-partisan discussion of the general election & its possible results. The Labour candidate as it happens is also a councillor within the constituency, like Paul Kohler, & I'm sure she is very well-known in her own ward (Abbey).

[graham]

Mar 25, 2024 21:11:03 GMT anthony said:

Whilst Labour locally are putting in a show (because they fear for their council majority), if you put a Wimbledon post-code into the national Labour party website you're told "We've identified battleground seats that are crucial to secure a Labour victory. Our top choice for you is Croydon South."

On the doorstep relatively few people who actively want Labour - some who simply want the Tories out - and plenty saying "never again" to the Conservatives. The Lib Dem candidate is well-known. The boundary changes bring in parts of Kingston and Surbiton.

I'm not convinced the Tories will be third however.

I suspect that the LDs here may well have peaked in 2019 because of the salient issues of the time - Brexit & Corbyn.  Labour's vote may well have been artificially depressed on account of such factors.  Good to hear that Labour is fighting hard here!

[right]

Mar 26, 2024 0:07:11 GMT graham said:

Mar 25, 2024 21:11:03 GMT anthony said:

Whilst Labour locally are putting in a show (because they fear for their council majority), if you put a Wimbledon post-code into the national Labour party website you're told "We've identified battleground seats that are crucial to secure a Labour victory. Our top choice for you is Croydon South."

On the doorstep relatively few people who actively want Labour - some who simply want the Tories out - and plenty saying "never again" to the Conservatives. The Lib Dem candidate is well-known. The boundary changes bring in parts of Kingston and Surbiton.

I'm not convinced the Tories will be third however.

I suspect that the LDs here may well have peaked in 2019 because of the salient issues of the time - Brexit & Corbyn.  Labour's vote may well have been artificially depressed on account of such factors.  Good to hear that Labour is fighting hard here!

I didn't see Corbyn greatly affect the middle class Labour vote in my (non London) patch.  It was the working class Labour vote that Corbyn cratered, and I think we saw this in the way the seats fell.  May have been different where the Lib Dems had a fighting chance, or there may be weird South West London factors that affected things which I'm blissfully unaware of.

[graham]

Mar 26, 2024 8:37:48 GMT right said:

Mar 26, 2024 0:07:11 GMT graham said:

I suspect that the LDs here may well have peaked in 2019 because of the salient issues of the time - Brexit & Corbyn.  Labour's vote may well have been artificially depressed on account of such factors.  Good to hear that Labour is fighting hard here!

I didn't see Corbyn greatly affect the middle class Labour vote in my (non London) patch.  It was the working class Labour vote that Corbyn cratered, and I think we saw this in the way the seats fell.  May have been different where the Lib Dems had a fighting chance, or there may be weird South West London factors that affected things which I'm blissfully unaware of.

The salience of Brexit at the time surely helped the LDs.Middle class Labour voters in this seat might have had sufficient political insight to understand that  the Corbyn factor had made Labour unelectable in 2019 and were ,therefore, receptive to an alternative. To what extent is that now likely to unwind? A 35% Labour vote share here is not to be ruled out on basis of current national polling.

[right]

Mar 26, 2024 11:52:34 GMT graham said:

Mar 26, 2024 8:37:48 GMT right said:

I didn't see Corbyn greatly affect the middle class Labour vote in my (non London) patch.  It was the working class Labour vote that Corbyn cratered, and I think we saw this in the way the seats fell.  May have been different where the Lib Dems had a fighting chance, or there may be weird South West London factors that affected things which I'm blissfully unaware of.

The salience of Brexit at the time surely helped the LDs.Middle class Labour voters in this seat might have had sufficient political insight to understand that  the Corbyn factor had made Labour unelectable in 2019 and were ,therefore, receptive to an alternative. To what extent is that now likely to unwind? A 35% Labour vote share here is not to be ruled out on basis of current national polling.

Labour and the Lib Dem leaderships are both far more open to tactical voting than they were in 2019.  Whether this trickles down to their core vote remains to be seen - but most by-elections and council elections seems to show that this is happening more than in 2019, or for that matter more than for about 20 years.

Local election voters tend to have more political information than those who mainly only vote in General Elections, and perhaps this area is different. But if anything this is the sort of seat where Lib-Lab salience will be lower rather than higher, because its middle class and Labour voters are more likely to vote Liberal than vice versa.

[graham]

Mar 26, 2024 12:41:50 GMT right said:

Mar 26, 2024 11:52:34 GMT graham said:

The salience of Brexit at the time surely helped the LDs.Middle class Labour voters in this seat might have had sufficient political insight to understand that  the Corbyn factor had made Labour unelectable in 2019 and were ,therefore, receptive to an alternative. To what extent is that now likely to unwind? A 35% Labour vote share here is not to be ruled out on basis of current national polling.

Labour and the Lib Dem leaderships are both far more open to tactical voting than they were in 2019.  Whether this trickles down to their core vote remains to be seen - but most by-elections and council elections seems to show that this is happening more than in 2019, or for that matter more than for about 20 years.

Local election voters tend to have more political information than those who mainly only vote in General Elections, and perhaps this area is different. But if anything this is the sort of seat where Lib-Lab salience will be lower rather than higher, because its middle class and Labour voters are more likely to vote Liberal than vice versa.

But Labour does now appear to be fighting  hard here rather than conceding that the LDs are the main anti-Tory option. That will surely discourage tactical Labour /LD tactical voting  and can hardly be surprising given that Labour held the seat 1997 - 2005. How accustomed are voters here to voting LD at local elections whilst being prepared to switch back to Labour at a GE when national polls strongly favour them?

[iain]

Mar 26, 2024 13:17:55 GMT graham said:

Mar 26, 2024 12:41:50 GMT right said:

Labour and the Lib Dem leaderships are both far more open to tactical voting than they were in 2019.  Whether this trickles down to their core vote remains to be seen - but most by-elections and council elections seems to show that this is happening more than in 2019, or for that matter more than for about 20 years.

Local election voters tend to have more political information than those who mainly only vote in General Elections, and perhaps this area is different. But if anything this is the sort of seat where Lib-Lab salience will be lower rather than higher, because its middle class and Labour voters are more likely to vote Liberal than vice versa.

But Labour does now appear to be fighting  hard here rather than conceding that the LDs are the main anti-Tory option. That will surely discourage tactical Labour /LD tactical voting  and can hardly be surprising given that Labour held the seat 1997 - 2005. How accustomed are voters here to voting LD at local elections whilst being prepared to switch back to Labour at a GE when national polls strongly favour them?

Not very. Traditionally the Lib Dems only had strength in West Barnes ward. We only broke out of that ward in 2018, which of course presaged the large advance in 2019. It was only in 2022 that we gained a strong base of councillors, increasing our voteshare by more than 15%.

[robert1]

Was chatting to a Wimbledon resident yesterday (not involved in politics) who said that she was receiving lots of literature from both Lab and LDs saying that they were the alternative to the Tories here. Although it was a relatively brief conversation, the conclusion was -she couldn't differentiate as from whom she was receiving most leaflets and that the messaging was the same.

[graham]

Mar 26, 2024 14:04:58 GMT iain said:

Mar 26, 2024 13:17:55 GMT graham said:

But Labour does now appear to be fighting  hard here rather than conceding that the LDs are the main anti-Tory option. That will surely discourage tactical Labour /LD tactical voting  and can hardly be surprising given that Labour held the seat 1997 - 2005. How accustomed are voters here to voting LD at local elections whilst being prepared to switch back to Labour at a GE when national polls strongly favour them?

Not very. Traditionally the Lib Dems only had strength in West Barnes ward. We only broke out of that ward in 2018, which of course presaged the large advance in 2019. It was only in 2022 that we gained a strong base of councillors, increasing our voteshare by more than 15%.

But the LD vote share in 2022 was no higher than at the 2019 GE. Local election results normally do flatter the LDs - and indeed the Greens.

[iain]

Mar 26, 2024 14:16:45 GMT graham said:

Mar 26, 2024 14:04:58 GMT iain said:

Not very. Traditionally the Lib Dems only had strength in West Barnes ward. We only broke out of that ward in 2018, which of course presaged the large advance in 2019. It was only in 2022 that we gained a strong base of councillors, increasing our voteshare by more than 15%.

But the LD vote share in 2022 was no higher than at the 2019 GE. Local election results normally do flatter the LDs - and indeed the Greens.

In general, yes, but that has not been the case in Wimbledon, and there are many other examples where it hasn't been the case. Labour was polling ~40% nationally at the time of those local elections, where they generally did pretty well versus the Lib Dems, but in Wimbledon won just 20% of the vote and notionally lost 4 councillors.

[michaelarden]

How many councillors did Labour have in the constituency in 1997?

[anthony]

Mar 26, 2024 14:15:23 GMT robert1 said:

Was chatting to a Wimbledon resident yesterday (not involved in politics) who said that she was receiving lots of literature from both Lab and LDs saying that they were the alternative to the Tories here. Although it was a relatively brief conversation, the conclusion was -she couldn't differentiate as from whom she was receiving most leaflets and that the messaging was the same.

Although it simply isn't the case that Labour is putting out as much literature

[anthony]

Mar 26, 2024 19:16:28 GMT michaelarden said:

How many councillors did Labour have in the constituency in 1997?

The majority. It was also on more favourable boundaries - as parts of Colliers Wood, Lavender Fields and St Helier iirc were part of the constituency.

[anthony]

Mar 26, 2024 0:07:11 GMT graham said:

I suspect that the LDs here may well have peaked in 2019 because of the salient issues of the time - Brexit & Corbyn.  Labour's vote may well have been artificially depressed on account of such factors.  Good to hear that Labour is fighting hard here!

I seem to recall you're always keen to talk up Labour in Wimbledon but Brexit and Corbyn didn't advantage the Lib Dems really anywhere else so why you should think they would do here ...

Nonetheless, I am happy with our canvass returns.

[Pete Whitehead]

Mar 26, 2024 19:23:25 GMT anthony said:

Mar 26, 2024 19:16:28 GMT michaelarden said:

How many councillors did Labour have in the constituency in 1997?

The majority. It was also on more favourable boundaries - as parts of Colliers Wood, Lavender Fields and St Helier iirc were part of the constituency.

Not quite. There were 14 Labour councillors elected in 1994 against 9 Conservatives 3 LDs and 3 Residents. Exactly the same configuration in 1998. I don't thing Labour would have gained any seats in by-elections in between (they pretty much had already won everything they could

[anthony]

Mar 25, 2024 22:14:58 GMT batman said:

No, Labour are trying because they think they can win here. I'm not saying that they will, but they are fighting to win. You don't need to do Lib Dem squeeze leaflets here in this forum. This part of the forum is for non-partisan discussion of the general election & its possible results. The Labour candidate as it happens is also a councillor within the constituency, like Paul Kohler, & I'm sure she is very well-known in her own ward (Abbey).

I think the national Labour party's recognition of whether the seat is "battleground seat" or not is noteworthy for this forum, surely?

The Labour candidate's ward is Wandle not Abbey, and based on my canvassing there she doesn't seem exceptionally well-known (even the most well-known of councillors aren't terribly well-known by a general election electorate)