Wimbledon

[John Chanin]

May 25, 2024 13:55:39 GMT cogload said:

Actually the last thing people want in my experience is "bold action" - the idea frightens them.  And they are suspicious of "clear plans" since life is such a contingent muddle.

Not a winning pitch I feel.

[threecrowns]

Quite an interesting read relating to this constituency.

theuglygame.wordpress.com/2024/06/01/the-comms-matrix-of-agent-smith/

[anthony]

May 31, 2024 15:23:33 GMT YL said:

"Poll" meaning projection from an MRP, I assume.

Yes, the January YouGov one

[YL]

Jun 3, 2024 17:40:14 GMT anthony said:

May 31, 2024 15:23:33 GMT YL said:

"Poll" meaning projection from an MRP, I assume.

Yes, the January YouGov one

The latest one has the Lib Dems ahead on 35% and Labour and the Tories tied for second on 28%.

[graham]

So even on the MRP figures this is a 3 way contest. It implies that the LDs have dropped over 2% since 2019 whilst the Tories are down 10%. Labour is up over 4% and has some momentum. This is in spite of boundary changes which somewhat favoured the LDs.

[Davıd Boothroyd]

bylinetimes.com/2024/06/04/lib-dem-official-uses-anonymous-x-account-to-discredit-rivals-in-key-battleground-seat/

[londonseal80]

Jun 3, 2024 19:39:45 GMT graham said:

So even on the MRP figures this is a 3 way contest. It implies that the LDs have dropped over 2% since 2019 whilst the Tories are down 10%. Labour is up over 4% and has some momentum. This is in spite of boundary changes which somewhat favoured the LDs.

I am predicting a Lib Dem win with Labour in second place.

[hempie]

SOPN:
www.merton.gov.uk/system/files/statement_of_persons_nominated_and_notice_of_poll_-_wimbledon_constituency.pdf

9 candidates:
CON
LAB
LIB DEM
GREEN
REFORM UK
WORKERS PARTY
HERITAGE
2 INDEPENDENTS

[Davıd Boothroyd]

In her interview on Matt Forde's 'Political Party' podcast, the Conservative candidate says she is trying to rename the constituency "Wimbledon and the Maldens".

(It now includes Old Malden and Malden Manor. But it doesn't include New Malden, which is still in Kingston and Surbiton)

[batman]

Tough titty in any case. There won't be another boundary review for years.

[Deleted]

LD gain. 2022 locals were excellent for the Lib Dems, and Davey being an MP nor a nearby seat won't hurt at all.

[graham]

Jun 11, 2024 22:29:38 GMT @weld said:

LD gain. 2022 locals were excellent for the Lib Dems, and Davey being an MP nor a nearby seat won't hurt at all.

But the LD vote share fell below their 2019 GE result! Local elections tend to flatter them .

[Deleted]

Jun 11, 2024 22:32:07 GMT graham said:

Jun 11, 2024 22:29:38 GMT @weld said:

LD gain. 2022 locals were excellent for the Lib Dems, and Davey being an MP nor a nearby seat won't hurt at all.

But the LD vote share fell below their 2019 GE result! Local elections tend to flatter them .

Yeah, but some of thew areas now in the seat have never gone Labour locally or at a GE. 

[cogload]

Mar 17, 2024 23:00:50 GMT cogload said:

If the Tory vote craters here where does it go to? And if it holds up this seat could be a 3 way spiderman meme.

I imagine there will be an awful lot of LD activists helping out from the likes of Richmond Park and Twickenham. Brace yourselves!

😉

[heslingtonian]

Somewhat surprised given the small majority how many big name Conservatives have been campaigning here - David Cameron and Theresa May were both campaigning here this week and Sunak has also visited. Clearly it's quite a convenient seat to visit but still quite surprising.

[batman]

They must presumably be hoping against hope that the anti-Tory vote is so split that they somehow come through the middle, helped by the boundary change. I don't think they have any chance of succeeding, personally.

[graham]

Jun 15, 2024 15:38:04 GMT heslingtonian said:

Somewhat surprised given the small majority how many big name Conservatives have been campaigning here - David Cameron and Theresa May were both campaigning here this week and Sunak has also visited. Clearly it's quite a convenient seat to visit but still quite surprising.

The Tory vote did fall here sharply in 2019 against the national trend. That may mean that the party's residual vote has less to fall now and may prove more sticky than many expect.

[batman]

That's possible given that there were some wards where the Tories did less badly than expected in 2022. But Hammond's retirement doesn't help the Tories. I don't see their vote going into freefall but I don't see them as being competitive either. They will certainly retain a strong enough position in Village ward - Heaven forfend that it should be otherwise there.

[Deleted]

Jun 15, 2024 17:57:29 GMT graham said:

Jun 15, 2024 15:38:04 GMT heslingtonian said:

Somewhat surprised given the small majority how many big name Conservatives have been campaigning here - David Cameron and Theresa May were both campaigning here this week and Sunak has also visited. Clearly it's quite a convenient seat to visit but still quite surprising.

The Tory vote did fall here sharply in 2019 against the national trend. That may mean that the party's residual vote has less to fall now and may prove more sticky than many expect.

The Tories might be in for a rude awakening in some seats where they believe 2019 was their 'floor' lol. As someone who lives in a ward that elected Tory Councillors from 1964 to 1998 inclusive (albeit the boundaries changed in 2002), I'd be careful about assuming Village is still rock solid for the blue side. However, it is demographically not dissimilar to Frognal (Camden) down the road from me which the Tories held with a swing in their favour in May. The Lib Dems will also be buoyed by the fact that NOC is quite likely here in 2026 and they are well-placed to be the largest party, although a majority is unlikely because they can't break through in Lower Morden and indeed require the Tories to hold up there for NOC to be on the cards. I wonder if such calculations about deals with Merton Tories play into how aggressively they're contesting this seat. Still, maybe the activists come from other areas and don't care about such fine scruples as the 2026 locals here.

[maxque]

Jun 11, 2024 22:26:57 GMT batman said:

Tough titty in any case. There won't be another boundary review for years.

What stops  them from doing it the Canadian way, i.e. a Bill to rename constituencies?