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Post by Pete Whitehead on May 11, 2024 10:25:44 GMT
So presumably Labour won in 1945 because at that time it included the Morden area? Yes although Labour would have been competitve in Wimbledon itself, they won thanks to the inclusion of the whole of Merton & Morden, with the Ravensbury ward being a massive Labour stronghold then as now, while this seat only includes the mostly more Conservative Northern parts of that borough (West Barnes, Merton Park, but also part of [Merton] Abbey). Plus of course this seat is gaining New Malden. When Merton & Morden got its own seat in 1950 it was of course fairly narrowly won by the Conservatives and that was entirely down to the wards which are in this seat with Labour well ahead in the section now in M&M. On the 1950 boundaries, the loss of Merton & Morden was compensated for by the inclusion of the whole of Coombe & New Malden, thus the Conservatives were able to 'gain' the seat with a majority of 20,000 |
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Post by batman on May 11, 2024 18:05:02 GMT
Ravensbury ward showed very occasional signs of Labour loosening its grip but really it was only in comparative terms, it has never really been in danger during my time in the Labour Party. Funny you should mention the ward, I just had a drink with one of the councillors for it here in Kew a couple of hours ago
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Post by londonseal80 on May 20, 2024 16:11:49 GMT
Ravensbury ward showed very occasional signs of Labour loosening its grip but really it was only in comparative terms, it has never really been in danger during my time in the Labour Party. Funny you should mention the ward, I just had a drink with one of the councillors for it here in Kew a couple of hours ago It was also one of the safest Labour wards on the pre-1965 Surrey County Council named as Merton - South East along with Carshalton - North East (St Helier) & Epsom and Ewell - West (which back then contained the whole of Court ward). |
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connor
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Post by connor on May 22, 2024 21:01:37 GMT
Interesting looking at the numbers. 2019 saw the Lib Dems jump and Labour decline tells me that perhaps a lot of Anti-Tory voters weren't so keen on Corbyn but weren't willing to loan their vote to Boris Johnson, hence the boost to the Lib Dem. Wonder if that reverses in this election, and the tory collapse, could see Labour win this seat at long last? Possible...
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yorkshireluke
Lib Dem
I run @polmapsinfoUK, @YorkshireElects and /r/PoliticalMaps/
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Post by yorkshireluke on May 22, 2024 21:31:43 GMT
Interesting looking at the numbers. 2019 saw the Lib Dems jump and Labour decline tells me that perhaps a lot of Anti-Tory voters weren't so keen on Corbyn but weren't willing to loan their vote to Boris Johnson, hence the boost to the Lib Dem. Wonder if that reverses in this election, and the tory collapse, could see Labour win this seat at long last? Possible... Worth keeping in mind that the boundary changes favour the Lib Dems this time around. Will be getting a lot of attention. Already getting mine. |
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graham
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Post by graham on May 23, 2024 7:54:38 GMT
Interesting looking at the numbers. 2019 saw the Lib Dems jump and Labour decline tells me that perhaps a lot of Anti-Tory voters weren't so keen on Corbyn but weren't willing to loan their vote to Boris Johnson, hence the boost to the Lib Dem. Wonder if that reverses in this election, and the tory collapse, could see Labour win this seat at long last? Possible... The seat was Labour-held 1997 - 2005. |
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
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Wimbledon
May 25, 2024 13:55:39 GMT
via mobile
Post by cogload on May 25, 2024 13:55:39 GMT
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Post by borisminor on May 25, 2024 14:21:11 GMT
Other than his campaign launch at the ExCel centre (West Ham and Beckton) the Prime Minister still is yet to visit a Labour held constituency. I know this is unsurprising given the political context but it really shows how deep we are into a lifeboat strategy - also demonstrated by a visit to Cannock Chase the 51st safest Conservative seat yesterday. |
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steve
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Wimbledon
May 25, 2024 20:41:33 GMT
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Post by steve on May 25, 2024 20:41:33 GMT
Other than his campaign launch at the ExCel centre (West Ham and Beckton) the Prime Minister still is yet to visit a Labour held constituency. I know this is unsurprising given the political context but it really shows how deep we are into a lifeboat strategy - also demonstrated by a visit to Cannock Chase the 51st safest Conservative seat yesterday. The battle to be the official opposition! 🙂 |
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Post by anthony on May 25, 2024 21:28:00 GMT
Rather poor turnout for the PM
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Post by adlai52 on May 26, 2024 15:22:05 GMT
Other than his campaign launch at the ExCel centre (West Ham and Beckton) the Prime Minister still is yet to visit a Labour held constituency. I know this is unsurprising given the political context but it really shows how deep we are into a lifeboat strategy - also demonstrated by a visit to Cannock Chase the 51st safest Conservative seat yesterday. A lot of this is dictated by how easy it is to get a visit in as part of a schedule that includes multiple seats - speculation that the Wimbledon visit was tagged on after reports he was 'taking a day out' (see the CCHQ briefing on Stamer's 'light' schedule today). Visiting Wimbledon is odd though as its a seat that Conservatives would have to be v optimistic to think they can hold - maybe with a split opposition? A more promising seat might have been in West London or Sutton? |
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Post by batman on May 26, 2024 18:35:46 GMT
If Sunak is seen only to be visiting seats with quite large Conservative majorities, it is not a good look. It makes the Tory campaign look a little less abject if he goes to some seats where most of us would write off their chances.
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Post by timrollpickering on May 26, 2024 18:38:58 GMT
He was in West Ham & Beckton the other night!
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Post by batman on May 26, 2024 19:13:33 GMT
Well yes but that's slightly different I think Tim  |
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YL
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Post by YL on May 31, 2024 15:23:33 GMT
"Poll" meaning projection from an MRP, I assume.
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iain
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Post by iain on May 31, 2024 15:44:28 GMT
"Poll" meaning projection from an MRP, I assume. Indeed, from January. Their more recent MRP had Lib Dem first, Conservative second. |
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Khunanup
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Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
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Post by Khunanup on May 31, 2024 16:10:51 GMT
"Poll" meaning projection from an MRP, I assume. Indeed, from January. Their more recent MRP had Lib Dem first, Conservative second. That's a bad barchart for Labour to use... |
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Post by batman on May 31, 2024 21:28:18 GMT
No, not really. If people think that the Tories are out of the running they may be more likely to feel safe to vote Labour & not do a tactical LD vote.
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Post by noorderling on Jun 1, 2024 5:51:13 GMT
No, not really. If people think that the Tories are out of the running they may be more likely to feel safe to vote Labour & not do a tactical LD vote. And convince Tories to vote tactically for the Lib Dems. Also, if poll figures show Labour headed for a landslide victory, the Lib Dem could campaign on that is better to elect an opposition MP to keep Starmer on his toes instead of just another Labour backbencher who will just fall in line. The Lib Dem candidate is apparently well known locally from some campaign in the past, and has been campaigning here since 2019. |
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Jun 1, 2024 6:50:51 GMT
No, not really. If people think that the Tories are out of the running they may be more likely to feel safe to vote Labour & not do a tactical LD vote. And convince Tories to vote tactically for the Lib Dems. Also, if poll figures show Labour headed for a landslide victory, the Lib Dem could campaign on that is better to elect an opposition MP to keep Starmer on his toes instead of just another Labour backbencher who will just fall in line. The Lib Dem candidate is apparently well known locally from some campaign in the past, and has been campaigning here since 2019. He became fairly well known locally from his impressive reaction to being the victim of an extremely vicious unprovoked assault. I don't know if that's remembered, it was quite a few years ago. |
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