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Post by michaelarden on Mar 26, 2024 19:31:41 GMT
I suspect that the LDs here may well have peaked in 2019 because of the salient issues of the time - Brexit & Corbyn. Labour's vote may well have been artificially depressed on account of such factors. Good to hear that Labour is fighting hard here! I seem to recall you're always keen to talk up Labour in Wimbledon but Brexit and Corbyn didn't advantage the Lib Dems really anywhere else so why you should think they would do here ... Nonetheless, I am happy with our canvass returns. Esher and Walton? (among others) |
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Post by anthony on Mar 26, 2024 19:32:41 GMT
The majority. It was also on more favourable boundaries - as parts of Colliers Wood, Lavender Fields and St Helier iirc were part of the constituency. Not quite. There were 14 Labour councillors elected in 1994 against 9 Conservatives 3 LDs and 3 Residents. Exactly the same configuration in 1998. I don't thing Labour would have gained any seats in by-elections in between (they pretty much had already won everything they could Fair enough, although there were 3 polling districts from otherwise Mitcham and Morden wards (as mentioned above) that must have amounted to one councilor?  |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Mar 26, 2024 19:34:27 GMT
Not quite. There were 14 Labour councillors elected in 1994 against 9 Conservatives 3 LDs and 3 Residents. Exactly the same configuration in 1998. I don't thing Labour would have gained any seats in by-elections in between (they pretty much had already won everything they could Fair enough, although there were 3 polling districts from otherwise Mitcham and Morden wards (as mentioned above) that must have amounted to one councilor? There were not. |
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Post by anthony on Mar 26, 2024 19:35:33 GMT
There were, recently confirmed for me by our electoral services manager. Will dig it out. Edit: here's what he said in November -
"You are correct, and also part of St Helier.
Polling districts BDW in St Helier ward, CCW in Colliers Wood and DAW in Lavender Fields used to be part of Wimbledon Parliamentary constituency" |
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Post by anthony on Mar 26, 2024 19:41:29 GMT
Esher and Walton? (among others) Suspect that's just as likely/more likely to be the, er, presence of the incumbent. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Mar 26, 2024 19:44:28 GMT
There were, recently confirmed for me by our electoral services manager. Will dig it out. Edit: here's what he said in November -
"You are correct, and also part of St Helier.
Polling districts BDW in St Helier ward, CCW in Colliers Wood and DAW in Lavender Fields used to be part of Wimbledon Parliamentary constituency"You're confusing the current boundaries with those in force in 1997. The boundaries did not change in 1997 compared with 1983 as the seat continued to include 10 of the wards which had first been created in 1978. It didn'd include any of the wards you mentioned. In 2010 the seat was realigned with new ward boundaries which meant it gained areas which had previously been part of Mitcham & Morden - 764 voters to be precise. Page viii here webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/ukgwa/20221201180516mp_/https://s3-eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/lgbce/__data/assets/pdf_file/0010/7939/london-merton_6153-5757__e__.pdf describes the ward boundary changes you're alluding to |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Mar 26, 2024 19:46:39 GMT
There were, recently confirmed for me by our electoral services manager. Will dig it out. Edit: here's what he said in November -
"You are correct, and also part of St Helier.
Polling districts BDW in St Helier ward, CCW in Colliers Wood and DAW in Lavender Fields used to be part of Wimbledon Parliamentary constituency"Yes you're right some voters moved the other way, but it amounted to 447 voters so fewer than moved in. I don't think it's worth a councillor.. |
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Post by anthony on Mar 26, 2024 19:52:29 GMT
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Mar 26, 2024 19:57:47 GMT
It has been noted and was also noted that the number moving from M&M to Wimbledon was greater than the number moving the other way (but nevertheless was a fairly trivial number in both cases) |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Mar 26, 2024 20:00:03 GMT
In any event, these split wards were a consequence of the new ward boundaries which came into effect in 2002. There were no parts of any Mitcham & Morden wards in Wimbledon constituency in 1997 (by definition). The boundaries of that seat then corresponded precisely to the 10 wards as they had existed between 1978 and 2002 and which returned the numbers of councillors I recorded earlier.
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Post by anthony on Mar 26, 2024 20:02:54 GMT
It has been noted and was also noted that the number moving from M&M to Wimbledon was greater than the number moving the other way (but nevertheless was a fairly trivial number in both cases) What became the 2002 LE ward boundary review didn't change the underlying existing GE boundaries at that point. What became the 7 split wards would still in my opinion have benefited Labour, with parts of what became post-2002 CH, WB and Trinity (ie higher Tory %) voting for a Mitcham & Morden MP and parts of CW, St H and LF (higher Lab %) voting for a Wimbledon MP. It's not huge numbers but does seem more favourable to Labour then when compared with the current boundaries - which both lack those adjustments, and which now includes a rather larger number from the former Kingston & Surbiton |
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Post by No Offence Alan on Mar 26, 2024 20:05:05 GMT
Sadly, at these mayoral/GLA elections, there will be no ward-level breakdown of the votes.
This would have greatly clarified the relative strengths of the parties "on the ground".
The reason given for counting manually this time was potentially having the GE on the same day.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Mar 26, 2024 20:30:49 GMT
It has been noted and was also noted that the number moving from M&M to Wimbledon was greater than the number moving the other way (but nevertheless was a fairly trivial number in both cases) What became the 2002 LE ward boundary review didn't change the underlying existing GE boundaries at that point. What became the 7 split wards would still in my opinion have benefited Labour, with parts of what became post-2002 CH, WB and Trinity (ie higher Tory %) voting for a Mitcham & Morden MP and parts of CW, St H and LF (higher Lab %) voting for a Wimbledon MP. It's not huge numbers but does seem more favourable to Labour then when compared with the current boundaries - which both lack those adjustments, and which now includes a rather larger number from the former Kingston & Surbiton Wimbledon result 2005 | Con | 17886 | 41.2% | | Lab | 15585 | 35.9% | | LD | 7868 | 18.1% | | Grn | 1374 | 3.2% | | UKIP | 408 | 0.9% | | Oth | 283 | 0.7% |
| | | | Majority | 2301 | 5.3% |
Notional result on new boundaries | Con | 18028 | 41.4% | | Lab | 15548 | 35.7% | | LD | 7908 | 18.2% | | Grn | 1381 | 3.2% | | UKIP | 408 | 0.9% | | Oth | 283 | 0.6% |
| | | | Majority | 2480 | 5.7% |
Obviously the latest changes involving the addition of parts of Kingston (and the removal of Canon Hill) are unhelpful to Labour and please note my views on the likely outcome in this constituency do not align with graham I'm only interested in facts. The proposition that Wimbldon in 1997 was more favourable to Labour than it has been since 2010 is provably false. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Mar 26, 2024 20:34:41 GMT
Sadly, at these mayoral/GLA elections, there will be no ward-level breakdown of the votes. This would have greatly clarified the relative strengths of the parties "on the ground". The reason given for counting manually this time was potentially having the GE on the same day. I understood from Davıd Boothroyd that the reason for moving to a manual count is that it was no longer necessary to count electronically because of the absence of the 'second vote' and the transfers. Obviouosly that is not a reason why they could not do it electronically, just a reason why it was no longer necessary (ignoring the obvious fact that the main reason for publishing ward level data is for the benefit of anoraks like us and that counting by hand does not preclude recording and publising ward level results) |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Mar 26, 2024 20:35:45 GMT
Obviously it was an unforeseen consequence of the rule changes brought in by this goverment which is reason enough on its own to turf them from office
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Post by anthony on Mar 26, 2024 20:41:51 GMT
I'm only interested in facts. The proposition that Wimbldon in 1997 was more favourable to Labour than it has been since 2010 is provably false. Although I was talking about compared to now (minus CH and with parts of K&S). Notional results are notional results though - just another tool rather than a fact - but they do show that the 'new' boundaries reduced the 2005 Labour vote and increased the Conservative and LD votes fractionally. Would be interested to see 1997 and 2001 results on 2010 boundaries. |
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Post by anthony on Mar 26, 2024 20:44:29 GMT
Obviously it was an unforeseen consequence of the rule changes brought in by this goverment which is reason enough on its own to turf them from office Merton usually do ward based results - albeit the 2021 results didn't reflect either the 2019 GE result or the 2022 LE results |
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maxque
Non-Aligned
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Post by maxque on Mar 27, 2024 2:37:14 GMT
Obviously it was an unforeseen consequence of the rule changes brought in by this goverment which is reason enough on its own to turf them from office Merton usually do ward based results - albeit the 2021 results didn't reflect either the 2019 GE result or the 2022 LE results As reported by David, the London returning officer explicitely banned councils from doing so. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on May 10, 2024 17:59:27 GMT
Notional results since 1945. The 2019 result is the 'official' (Thrasher & Rallings) notional - the others are my own work | | Con | Lab | Lib | CW | | | | | | | | 1945 | 47.7% | 39.9% | 9.5% | 2.9% | | 1950 | 59.6% | 31.2% | 9.2% | | | 1951 | 66.0% | 34.0% | | | | 1955 | 67.9% | 32.1% | | | | 1959 | 69.4% | 30.6% | | | | 1964 | 53.2% | 27.2% | 19.6% | | | 1966 | 53.6% | 32.5% | 13.9% | |
| | Con | Lab | Lib/LD | NF/BNP | Grn | | | | | | | | | 1970 | 56.7% | 28.5% | 14.8% | | | | 1974 | 50.4% | 23.2% | 26.0% | | | | 1974 | 50.3% | 27.2% | 22.5% | | | | 1979 | 57.9% | 26.1% | 15.0% | 1.0% | | | 1983 | 55.1% | 17.1% | 26.1% | | 1.2% | | 1987 | 54.1% | 19.3% | 26.5% | | | | 1992 | 54.8% | 21.9% | 20.8% | | 1.5% |
| | Con | Lab | LD | Grn | Ref/UKIP/
BXP | NF/BNP | | | | | | | | | | 1997 | 39.0% | 38.0% | 19.0% | 0.8% | 2.3% | | | 2001 | 36.8% | 37.4% | 21.5% | 2.2% | 0.4% | | | 2005 | 41.5% | 30.3% | 23.1% | 2.6% | 1.0% | | | 2010 | 48.4% | 19.5% | 28.5% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 1.0% | | 2015 | 51.9% | 23.1% | 15.7% | 4.0% | 5.3% | | | 2017 | 47.0% | 30.7% | 19.1% | 2.2% | 0.9% | | | 2019 | 39.8% | 20.8% | 38.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
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Wimbledon
May 11, 2024 9:55:46 GMT
via mobile
Post by batman on May 11, 2024 9:55:46 GMT
So presumably Labour won in 1945 because at that time it included the Morden area?
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