stb12
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Post by stb12 on Mar 13, 2024 21:52:20 GMT
Islington North
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Post by markgoodair on Mar 13, 2024 22:37:55 GMT
Will Corbyn stand again ?
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Mar 13, 2024 23:00:55 GMT
Reading his intentions is difficult. It is absolutely down to Corbyn's own decision, and everything we know from his Labour Party leadership shows that (a) he does not make up his mind very quickly; (b) he is very stubborn, especially around issues relating to his integrity; (c) he has a decent degree of institutional loyalty to Labour - not to its leadership, but to the members.
Corbyn is undoubtedly getting a lot of invitations from old friends, many of whom have either left Labour or been expelled, who have pledged to support and organise a re-election campaign for him as an Independent. But he also knows that doing so would cause major problems for his many supporters who are still members, particularly his own CLP. He is putting a lot of effort into his 'Peace and Justice Project', but it does not look like it has been set up as an embryonic political party. It does not have a membership and is seeking affiliations from Trade Unions, some of which are Labour Party affiliated. However the co-director is the very expelled Pamela Fitzpatrick.
I think it's possible Corbyn is hoping London Region makes the decision for him, by proceeding with a selection process which ends up with a candidate he can pronounce as either a worthy successor or as manifestly unsuitable. But London Region have a lot of other difficult selections to manage before this one and do not seem keen to start the process.
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Post by johnloony on Mar 13, 2024 23:14:43 GMT
Reading his intentions is difficult. It is absolutely down to Corbyn's own decision, and everything we know from his Labour Party leadership shows that (a) he does not make up his mind very quickly; (b) he is very stubborn, especially around issues relating to his integrity; (c) he has a decent degree of institutional loyalty to Labour - not to its leadership, but to the members. Corbyn is undoubtedly getting a lot of invitations from old friends, many of whom have either left Labour or been expelled, who have pledged to support and organise a re-election campaign for him as an Independent. But he also knows that doing so would cause major problems for his many supporters who are still members, particularly his own CLP. He is putting a lot of effort into his 'Peace and Justice Project', but it does not look like it has been set up as an embryonic political party. It does not have a membership and is seeking affiliations from Trade Unions, some of which are Labour Party affiliated. However the co-director is the very expelled Pamela Fitzpatrick. I think it's possible Corbyn is hoping London Region makes the decision for him, by proceeding with a selection process which ends up with a candidate he can pronounce as either a worthy successor or as manifestly unsuitable. But London Region have a lot of other difficult selections to manage before this one and do not seem keen to start the process. If Corbyn had any integrity at all, he would realise that the most important priority is to provide us psephologists with interesting electoral data to be analysed, which is by standard as an Independent candidate against the official Labour candidate in the general election. Ditto Diane Abbott. That is a big “if”, of course. |
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Post by John Chanin on Mar 18, 2024 3:42:45 GMT
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Mar 22, 2024 20:18:07 GMT
As of this morning, Islington North CLP members have all been locked out of Organise and Contact Creator.
What can this mean?
(NB it's quite obvious what this means)
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Post by mattbewilson on Mar 22, 2024 20:28:37 GMT
As of this morning, Islington North CLP members have all been locked out of Organise and Contact Creator. What can this mean? (NB it's quite obvious what this means) damn, Sadiq won't be doing any door knocking in IN then |
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Post by Old Fashioned Leftie on Mar 22, 2024 20:31:59 GMT
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Post by johnloony on Mar 23, 2024 1:43:48 GMT
As of this morning, Islington North CLP members have all been locked out of Organise and Contact Creator. What can this mean? (NB it's quite obvious what this means) It’s not necessarily “obvious” to those of us who don’t immediately know what “Organise and Contact Creator” is. I’m guessing it’s possibly a computer programme which helps with canvassing and/or election campaigning, and/or that it’s to prevent Labour Party members from using information to help the potential campaign of Jeremy Corbyn as an Independent candidate, but if any of those guesses is even slightly wrong, then it could mean something completely daffodilient. |
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Post by mattbewilson on Mar 23, 2024 8:46:41 GMT
As of this morning, Islington North CLP members have all been locked out of Organise and Contact Creator. What can this mean? (NB it's quite obvious what this means) It’s not necessarily “obvious” to those of us who don’t immediately know what “Organise and Contact Creator” is. I’m guessing it’s possibly a computer programme which helps with canvassing and/or election campaigning, and/or that it’s to prevent Labour Party members from using information to help the potential campaign of Jeremy Corbyn as an Independent candidate, but if any of those guesses is even slightly wrong, then it could mean something completely daffodilient. contact creator is where we keep all our data on electors and organise is where membership data is held |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Mar 23, 2024 9:30:59 GMT
What it means is that London region think Corbyn supporters within the party are using their access to Labour Party membership data and voter ID to provide support to a possible future Corbyn Independent candidacy. (Such use would infringe GDPR and be illegal, but that doesn't mean it won't happen.)
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Post by mattbewilson on Mar 23, 2024 13:56:20 GMT
What it means is that London region think Corbyn supporters within the party are using their access to Labour Party membership data and voter ID to provide support to a possible future Corbyn Independent candidacy. (Such use would infringe GDPR and be illegal, but that doesn't mean it won't happen.) they would do so in vain and would be breaking the law for no reason |
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graham
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Post by graham on Mar 23, 2024 14:10:43 GMT
I would expect Corbyn to win.
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Post by Old Fashioned Leftie on Mar 23, 2024 14:34:57 GMT
I would expect Corbyn to win. If he does decide to stand, whoever wins there will be a damaging split in the party. Indeed, I imagine he will take many members of the local party with him. I have little doubt Labour will win nationally, if not here, mainly because of the utter incompetence of the Tories. But in Islington, as in so many constituencies across the country, the way the Party is being managed does not auger well for the long term. |
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on Mar 23, 2024 14:48:16 GMT
I would expect Corbyn to win. All evidence suggests winning as an independent or with a smaller party is tough whatever the history of the individual is in the constituency, he has a high enough profile for it to be a possiblity but doubt it could ever be a certainty |
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graham
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Post by graham on Mar 23, 2024 16:16:44 GMT
I would expect Corbyn to win. All evidence suggests winning as an independent or with a smaller party is tough whatever the history of the individual is in the constituency, he has a high enough profile for it to be a possiblity but doubt it could ever be a certainty Dick Taverne, Eddie Milne and S O Davies managed it. Dave Nellist came close to holding on in 1992. |
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stb12
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Posts: 8,379
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Post by stb12 on Mar 23, 2024 16:46:11 GMT
All evidence suggests winning as an independent or with a smaller party is tough whatever the history of the individual is in the constituency, he has a high enough profile for it to be a possiblity but doubt it could ever be a certainty Dick Taverne, Eddie Milne and S O Davies managed it. Dave Nellist came close to holding on in 1992. Doesn’t mean it wasn’t tough, and in the case of Taverne and Milne they ended up defeated at subsequent elections If he’d resigned and triggered a by-election to stand as an independent then I’d say he’d probably have been favourite but in the midst of a general election campaign where Labour are widely expected to win well and form a government it will be difficult to make a contest that local. But as I said Corbyn does have enough of a profile where I wouldn’t totally rule out him succeeding |
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graham
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Post by graham on Mar 23, 2024 16:52:00 GMT
Dick Taverne, Eddie Milne and S O Davies managed it. Dave Nellist came close to holding on in 1992. Doesn’t mean it wasn’t tough, and in the case of Taverne and Milne they ended up defeated at subsequent elections If he’d resigned and triggered a by-election to stand as an independent then I’d say he’d probably have been favourite but in the midst of a general election campaign where Labour are widely expected to win well and form a government it will be difficult to make a contest that local. But as I said Corbyn does have enough of a profile where I wouldn’t totally rule out him succeeding Corbyn's profile in the seat is likely to be much higher than the examples I listed. In addition, party alleigances are likely to have loosened over the past few decades. To many voters Corbyn will be seen as the Labour candidate regardless of what the national party might say! |
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on Mar 23, 2024 16:55:50 GMT
Doesn’t mean it wasn’t tough, and in the case of Taverne and Milne they ended up defeated at subsequent elections If he’d resigned and triggered a by-election to stand as an independent then I’d say he’d probably have been favourite but in the midst of a general election campaign where Labour are widely expected to win well and form a government it will be difficult to make a contest that local. But as I said Corbyn does have enough of a profile where I wouldn’t totally rule out him succeeding Corbyn's profile in the seat is likely to be much higher than the examples I listed. In addition, party alleigances are likely to have loosened over the past few decades. To many voters Corbyn will be seen as the Labour candidate regardless of what the national party might say! As ever there will be voters who have simply been loyal to Labour over the years rather than Corbyn himself, what the proportion is I wouldn’t want to guess. But his national profile is a factor as well I’ll admit |
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johng
Labour
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Post by johng on Mar 23, 2024 17:29:56 GMT
I would expect Corbyn to win. All evidence suggests winning as an independent or with a smaller party is tough whatever the history of the individual is in the constituency, he has a high enough profile for it to be a possiblity but doubt it could ever be a certainty
Corbyn certainly has the name recognition to do so. And likely will take enough of the local CLP, along with outside support, to organise a real campaign.
Though very rarely does an MP standing as an independent/ for another party make enough impact to win. In fact, they rarely make an impact at all.
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