graham
Non-Aligned
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Post by graham on Mar 24, 2024 12:19:36 GMT
Many Labour members may help Corbyn from behind the scenes. People may be drafted in from other areas and their identities unknown to other loyal labour people. Workers may well appear from Kent , Surrey and Essex etc.
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Mar 24, 2024 12:20:23 GMT
There was a crucial difference in the Ken Livingstone campaign. When he chose to run as an Independent, Ken Livingstone thought (correctly) he had enough name recognition, and could get enough conventional media coverage, to win without a substantial grassroots organisation, and therefore strongly discouraged any London Labour Party members from joining his campaign and thereby auto-excluding themselves from the party. Corbyn will need a grassroots campaign in Islington North and will need to do the full VoterID from scratch. Most of the people he needs to do this are still Labour Party members and many of them want to continue to be. But Corbyn has just as much fame and name-recognition (particularly within his own constituency) as Livingstone did across London. My interpretation of your statement is that the difference is therefore that Corbyn doesn’t have the sense to tell people not to expel themselves. David is correct. The London Mayoralty had much more media coverage (print and broadcast) than one individual constituency will get in 2024 regardless of individual candidates. |
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graham
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Post by graham on Mar 24, 2024 12:27:25 GMT
I also do wonder whether there might be a possibility that a fair number of MPs from the Campaign Group could endorse Corbyn in public after nominations have closed.If circa 20 MPs did that it could create quite a headache for Starmer - too late to nominate replacement candidates. Would the party really disown such a large number of candidates - ie following the Rochdale pattern?
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Post by finsobruce on Mar 24, 2024 12:36:36 GMT
I also do wonder whether there might be a possibility that a fair number of MPs from the Campaign Group could endorse Corbyn in public after nominations have closed.If circa 20 MPs did that it could create quite a headache for Starmer - too late to nominate replacement candidates. Would the party really disown such a large number of candidates - ie following the Rochdale pattern? Even the Campaign group isn't that stupid. |
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graham
Non-Aligned
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Post by graham on Mar 24, 2024 12:51:10 GMT
I also do wonder whether there might be a possibility that a fair number of MPs from the Campaign Group could endorse Corbyn in public after nominations have closed.If circa 20 MPs did that it could create quite a headache for Starmer - too late to nominate replacement candidates. Would the party really disown such a large number of candidates - ie following the Rochdale pattern? Even the Campaign group isn't that stupid. But there remains a great deal of bitterness towards Starmer on account of his treatment of Corbyn and having blatantly lied during the 2020 Leadership campaign. Many on the Left would love to undermine him - 'Revenge is a dish best served cold.' If they behaved in the way I speculated , they effectively would have Starmer over a barrel in many seats across the country. Moreover,in a GE context such candidates would be almost certain to be elected whatever the reaction of National HQ. |
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stb12
Top Poster
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Post by stb12 on Mar 24, 2024 13:08:34 GMT
Even the Campaign group isn't that stupid. But there remains a great deal of bitterness towards Starmer on account of his treatment of Corbyn and having blatantly lied during the 2020 Leadership campaign. Many on the Left would love to undermine him - 'Revenge is a dish best served cold.' If they behaved in the way I speculated , they effectively would have Starmer over a barrel in many seats across the country. Moreover,in a GE context such candidates would be almost certain to be elected whatever the reaction of National HQ. I can’t see that happening because it could surely only see them viewed very badly by the wider Labour movement Even to many who may sympathise with Corbyn’s situation trying to cause that level of disruption when Labour are on the verge of finally getting back into government would seem very selfish and petty, he is just one man after all |
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Post by finsobruce on Mar 24, 2024 13:39:20 GMT
Even the Campaign group isn't that stupid. But there remains a great deal of bitterness towards Starmer on account of his treatment of Corbyn and having blatantly lied during the 2020 Leadership campaign. Many on the Left would love to undermine him - 'Revenge is a dish best served cold.' If they behaved in the way I speculated , they effectively would have Starmer over a barrel in many seats across the country. Moreover,in a GE context such candidates would be almost certain to be elected whatever the reaction of National HQ. In answer to your second question which you seem to have forgotten - yes, they would be excluded from the PLP.
And doing so after nominations had closed would be seen as an act of political chicanery. But that wouldn't stop them from winning. The two things are not mutually exclusive.
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Post by michaelarden on Mar 24, 2024 13:56:49 GMT
But Corbyn has just as much fame and name-recognition (particularly within his own constituency) as Livingstone did across London. My interpretation of your statement is that the difference is therefore that Corbyn doesn’t have the sense to tell people not to expel themselves. David is correct. The London Mayoralty had much more media coverage (print and broadcast) than one individual constituency will get in 2024 regardless of individual candidates. While all of that is true - the number of votes needed to win the mayorality is of a quantum significantly higher than the 15-18,000 needed to win Islington North. It wouldn't take a huge number of people (and Corbyn has dozens and dozens) to run an effective one constituency campaign even with all the general election noise. |
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,025
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Post by Sibboleth on Mar 24, 2024 14:14:12 GMT
I'm fairly sure that we've had this exact discussion before. Anyway, in a General Election most people vote to express their vote on who ought to be running the country, which is why the few instances of Independent Labour candidates actually winning have tended to involve either a) a candidate who the electorate can feel is still basically a proxy Labour vote even if they've fallen out with the Party, b) a candidate who has significant crossover appeal or c) both. We aren't talking of hard and fast rules here as there are none, but of a pretty strong and well-established pattern.
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ricmk
Lib Dem
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Post by ricmk on Mar 24, 2024 14:19:57 GMT
Gonna be such a damp squib when Corbyn doesn't stand isn't it? And the shock when he's given a peerage (or ambassadorship to Venezuela) after the election.
But explains why Labour need to do the candidature last minute - they can't afford to give Corbyn a run up if he is going to stand because he doesn't approve of the replacement.
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Post by michaelarden on Mar 24, 2024 14:28:44 GMT
I'm fairly sure that we've had this exact discussion before. Anyway, in a General Election most people vote to express their vote on who ought to be running the country, which is why the few instances of Independent Labour candidates actually winning have tended to involve either a) a candidate who the electorate can feel is still basically a proxy Labour vote even if they've fallen out with the Party, b) a candidate who has significant crossover appeal or c) both. We aren't talking of hard and fast rules here as there are none, but of a pretty strong and well-established pattern. And Corbyn ticks all three boxes. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Mar 24, 2024 14:42:24 GMT
I'm fairly sure that we've had this exact discussion before. Anyway, in a General Election most people vote to express their vote on who ought to be running the country, which is why the few instances of Independent Labour candidates actually winning have tended to involve either a) a candidate who the electorate can feel is still basically a proxy Labour vote even if they've fallen out with the Party, b) a candidate who has significant crossover appeal or c) both. We aren't talking of hard and fast rules here as there are none, but of a pretty strong and well-established pattern. And Corbyn ticks all three boxes. Er, um. no he doesn't. |
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graham
Non-Aligned
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Post by graham on Mar 24, 2024 14:48:34 GMT
But there remains a great deal of bitterness towards Starmer on account of his treatment of Corbyn and having blatantly lied during the 2020 Leadership campaign. Many on the Left would love to undermine him - 'Revenge is a dish best served cold.' If they behaved in the way I speculated , they effectively would have Starmer over a barrel in many seats across the country. Moreover,in a GE context such candidates would be almost certain to be elected whatever the reaction of National HQ. In answer to your second question which you seem to have forgotten - yes, they would be excluded from the PLP.
And doing so after nominations had closed would be seen as an act of political chicanery. But that wouldn't stop them from winning. The two things are not mutually exclusive.
Political chicanery? Perish the thought! In the immediate aftermath they would face exclusion from the PLP , but that need not be permanent in that we have seen plenty of SDP defectors eventually readmitted to party membership. Starmer would have brought it on himself anyway - and depending on the GE result he might need their votes in Parliament A group of 20 MPs acting in that way would slash his majority by 40. As the polls currently stand, that might not matter too much but should they significantly narrow it could become important. |
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Post by Old Fashioned Leftie on Mar 24, 2024 14:54:51 GMT
I'm fairly sure that we've had this exact discussion before. Anyway, in a General Election most people vote to express their vote on who ought to be running the country, which is why the few instances of Independent Labour candidates actually winning have tended to involve either a) a candidate who the electorate can feel is still basically a proxy Labour vote even if they've fallen out with the Party, b) a candidate who has significant crossover appeal or c) both. We aren't talking of hard and fast rules here as there are none, but of a pretty strong and well-established pattern. And Corbyn ticks all three boxes. He certainly ticks box (a), less sure about (b) although with around 2/3 of the vote at the last election that is perhaps a little less important in this area of North London. The main interest will be around the 2/3rds although I do wonder if he may attract a few of the others who would nt vote Labour - especially perhaps those who voted Green last time? |
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Post by mattbewilson on Mar 24, 2024 15:17:18 GMT
And Corbyn ticks all three boxes. Er, um. no he doesn't. oh I didn't realise you lived in Islington North |
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Post by finsobruce on Mar 24, 2024 15:21:33 GMT
In answer to your second question which you seem to have forgotten - yes, they would be excluded from the PLP.
And doing so after nominations had closed would be seen as an act of political chicanery. But that wouldn't stop them from winning. The two things are not mutually exclusive.
Political chicanery? Perish the thought! In the immediate aftermath they would face exclusion from the PLP , but that need not be permanent in that we have seen plenty of SDP defectors eventually readmitted to party membership. Starmer would have brought it on himself anyway - and depending on the GE result he might need their votes in Parliament A group of 20 MPs acting in that way would slash his majority by 40. As the polls currently stand, that might not matter too much but should they significantly narrow it could become important. You don't seem to be following your own logic. If there would be a point to doing it , it would be to establish a new party, not just to act as a Jeremy Corbyn support network.
And they know how that would go. |
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Post by finsobruce on Mar 24, 2024 15:22:24 GMT
oh I didn't realise you lived in Islington North I'm in the seat next door if it helps. And was in Islington North CLP for about eighteen months about fifteen years ago. |
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Post by mattbewilson on Mar 24, 2024 15:38:54 GMT
oh I didn't realise you lived in Islington North I'm in the seat next door if it helps. And was in Islington North CLP for about eighteen months about fifteen years ago. what happened 15 years ago? |
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,892
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Post by Tony Otim on Mar 24, 2024 15:51:04 GMT
And Corbyn ticks all three boxes. He certainly ticks box (a), less sure about (b) although with around 2/3 of the vote at the last election that is perhaps a little less important in this area of North London. The main interest will be around the 2/3rds although I do wonder if he may attract a few of the others who would nt vote Labour - especially perhaps those who voted Green last time? I'm not quite sure I see the logic that says that those who voted against Corbyn standing for a Corbyn-led Labour party last time might be more likely to vote for Corbyn as an Independent? Yes - there are some people who are just anti-Labour, but I'm not sure that the former Labour leader is going to have much appeal to them... |
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stb12
Top Poster
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Post by stb12 on Mar 24, 2024 15:51:55 GMT
It’s been noted before I’m sure but in 2005 despite any personal popularity Corbyn saw a similar swing to the Lib Dems from him that Labour had all over London, even though any Iraq protest vote clearly didn’t really need to apply to him personally
Although as also noted his profile nationally is obviously far higher since then
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