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Post by kevinf on Mar 23, 2024 17:35:45 GMT
What it means is that London region think Corbyn supporters within the party are using their access to Labour Party membership data and voter ID to provide support to a possible future Corbyn Independent candidacy. (Such use would infringe GDPR and be illegal, but that doesn't mean it won't happen.) I thought you didn’t get Voter ID through Organise, but a separate system, Contact Creator? |
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Post by mattbewilson on Mar 23, 2024 18:07:07 GMT
What it means is that London region think Corbyn supporters within the party are using their access to Labour Party membership data and voter ID to provide support to a possible future Corbyn Independent candidacy. (Such use would infringe GDPR and be illegal, but that doesn't mean it won't happen.) I thought you didn’t get Voter ID through Organise, but a separate system, Contact Creator? yes membership data on organise, electors through CC |
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graham
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Post by graham on Mar 23, 2024 19:45:51 GMT
All evidence suggests winning as an independent or with a smaller party is tough whatever the history of the individual is in the constituency, he has a high enough profile for it to be a possiblity but doubt it could ever be a certainty
Corbyn certainly has the name recognition to do so. And likely will take enough of the local CLP, along with outside support, to organise a real campaign.
Though very rarely does an MP standing as an independent/ for another party make enough impact to win. In fact, they rarely make an impact at all.
I refer you again to the examples of Dick Taverne , Eddie Milne, S O Davies and the near miss of Dave Nellist in 1992. Others might cite David Owen holding on to Plymouth Devonport under new party colours in 1983 and John Cartwright holding Woolwich at the same election. |
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right
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Post by right on Mar 23, 2024 19:55:06 GMT
I would expect Corbyn to win. All evidence suggests winning as an independent or with a smaller party is tough whatever the history of the individual is in the constituency, he has a high enough profile for it to be a possiblity but doubt it could ever be a certainty Sky high profile, almost certainty of 2 horse race with Labour, hated left could easily swarm this seat, Corbyn well on way to becoming a national treasure. He should be the favourite. |
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Post by mattbewilson on Mar 23, 2024 20:15:00 GMT
Corbyn certainly has the name recognition to do so. And likely will take enough of the local CLP, along with outside support, to organise a real campaign.
Though very rarely does an MP standing as an independent/ for another party make enough impact to win. In fact, they rarely make an impact at all.
I refer you again to the examples of Dick Taverne , Eddie Milne, S O Davies and the near miss of Dave Nellist in 1992. Others might cite David Owen holding on to Plymouth Devonport under new party colours in 1983 and John Cartwright holding Woolwich at the same election. while i think the same those examples are old hat |
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johng
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Post by johng on Mar 23, 2024 23:38:23 GMT
Corbyn certainly has the name recognition to do so. And likely will take enough of the local CLP, along with outside support, to organise a real campaign.
Though very rarely does an MP standing as an independent/ for another party make enough impact to win. In fact, they rarely make an impact at all.
I refer you again to the examples of Dick Taverne , Eddie Milne, S O Davies and the near miss of Dave Nellist in 1992. Others might cite David Owen holding on to Plymouth Devonport under new party colours in 1983 and John Cartwright holding Woolwich at the same election.
As I said, very rarely does an MP standing as an independent make enough impact to win.
I think you reposing the list only solidifies the point.
The most recent example of a win is from over 40 years ago.
For those fighting as independents/ effective independents, it's over 50 years ago.
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on Mar 23, 2024 23:55:56 GMT
I refer you again to the examples of Dick Taverne , Eddie Milne, S O Davies and the near miss of Dave Nellist in 1992. Others might cite David Owen holding on to Plymouth Devonport under new party colours in 1983 and John Cartwright holding Woolwich at the same election.
As I said, very rarely does an MP standing as an independent make enough impact to win.
I think you reposing the list only solidifies the point.
The most recent example of a win is from over 40 years ago.
For those fighting as independents/ effective independents, it's over 50 years ago.
There was Sylvia Hermon in 2010 and the two following elections but Northern Ireland politics is quite different as we all know |
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Post by johnloony on Mar 24, 2024 0:21:51 GMT
I refer you again to the examples of Dick Taverne , Eddie Milne, S O Davies and the near miss of Dave Nellist in 1992. Others might cite David Owen holding on to Plymouth Devonport under new party colours in 1983 and John Cartwright holding Woolwich at the same election. As I said, very rarely does an MP standing as an independent make enough impact to win. I think you reposing the list only solidifies the point.
The most recent example of a win is from over 40 years ago.
For those fighting as independents/ effective independents, it's over 50 years ago.
A unionist would disagree by pointing out Sylvia Hermon in North Down. Another more recent almost-but-not-quite example was the election of Peter Law in Blaenau Gwent (he had sort-of incumbency by transitioning from the Assembly to the House of Commons) and “holding” his seat in the subsequent by-election. |
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YL
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Post by YL on Mar 24, 2024 6:12:28 GMT
As I said, very rarely does an MP standing as an independent make enough impact to win. I think you reposing the list only solidifies the point.
The most recent example of a win is from over 40 years ago.
For those fighting as independents/ effective independents, it's over 50 years ago.
A unionist would disagree by pointing out Sylvia Hermon in North Down. Another more recent almost-but-not-quite example was the election of Peter Law in Blaenau Gwent (he had sort-of incumbency by transitioning from the Assembly to the House of Commons) and “holding” his seat in the subsequent by-election. Sylvia Hermon was the third consecutive MP for North Down to have stood for the UUP at some point and to win the seat either as an Independent or as the leader of their own micro-party. She and Kilfedder had originally been elected as UUP MPs, while McCartney stood for the UUP in 1983. George Galloway could also be cited as a former Labour MP who has won (three times now, though only once in a General Election) since leaving the party, though none of his post-Labour wins have been in the area he represented as a Labour MP. |
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Post by batman on Mar 24, 2024 8:21:41 GMT
I refer you again to the examples of Dick Taverne , Eddie Milne, S O Davies and the near miss of Dave Nellist in 1992. Others might cite David Owen holding on to Plymouth Devonport under new party colours in 1983 and John Cartwright holding Woolwich at the same election. while i think the same those examples are old hat they always are with graham bless him |
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johng
Labour
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Post by johng on Mar 24, 2024 8:28:51 GMT
As I said, very rarely does an MP standing as an independent make enough impact to win. I think you reposing the list only solidifies the point.
The most recent example of a win is from over 40 years ago.
For those fighting as independents/ effective independents, it's over 50 years ago.
A unionist would disagree by pointing out Sylvia Hermon in North Down. Another more recent almost-but-not-quite example was the election of Peter Law in Blaenau Gwent (he had sort-of incumbency by transitioning from the Assembly to the House of Commons) and “holding” his seat in the subsequent by-election.
I don't personally count NI to be comparable to the rest of the UK. Politically the two are world's apart.
You're right about Peter Law and Dai Davies being sort of this scenario.
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Post by mattbewilson on Mar 24, 2024 10:14:50 GMT
A unionist would disagree by pointing out Sylvia Hermon in North Down. Another more recent almost-but-not-quite example was the election of Peter Law in Blaenau Gwent (he had sort-of incumbency by transitioning from the Assembly to the House of Commons) and “holding” his seat in the subsequent by-election.
I don't personally count NI to be comparable to the rest of the UK. Politically the two are world's apart.
You're right about Peter Law and Dai Davies being sort of this scenario.
they seem far more relevant examples though someone will be over in a sec to say that their constituencies were very different to IN |
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graham
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Post by graham on Mar 24, 2024 10:51:38 GMT
I refer you again to the examples of Dick Taverne , Eddie Milne, S O Davies and the near miss of Dave Nellist in 1992. Others might cite David Owen holding on to Plymouth Devonport under new party colours in 1983 and John Cartwright holding Woolwich at the same election.
As I said, very rarely does an MP standing as an independent make enough impact to win.
I think you reposing the list only solidifies the point.
The most recent example of a win is from over 40 years ago.
For those fighting as independents/ effective independents, it's over 50 years ago.
But party loyalties have become looser over the years, and that should be helpful to a serious Independent candidate. Dr Richard Taylor triumphed at Wyre Forest in 2001 and held the seat until 2010. |
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Post by michaelarden on Mar 24, 2024 11:35:41 GMT
As I said, very rarely does an MP standing as an independent make enough impact to win.
I think you reposing the list only solidifies the point.
The most recent example of a win is from over 40 years ago.
For those fighting as independents/ effective independents, it's over 50 years ago.
There's also the rather salient more recent London example of Ken Livingston winning the Mayoralty of the whole city against the official Labour candidate. I imagine some of those involved are also sniffing around a Corbyn campaign. |
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Post by finsobruce on Mar 24, 2024 11:38:24 GMT
All evidence suggests winning as an independent or with a smaller party is tough whatever the history of the individual is in the constituency, he has a high enough profile for it to be a possiblity but doubt it could ever be a certainty Sky high profile, almost certainty of 2 horse race with Labour, hated left could easily swarm this seat, Corbyn well on way to becoming a national treasure. He should be the favourite. Personally, and fwiw this would be my view (do you mean hard left rather than hated left? both work).
A lot would depend on who Labour select as a candidate of course, but even so Corbyn would be in poll position. It's his to lose.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Mar 24, 2024 11:42:09 GMT
There was a crucial difference in the Ken Livingstone campaign. When he chose to run as an Independent, Ken Livingstone thought (correctly) he had enough name recognition, and could get enough conventional media coverage, to win without a substantial grassroots organisation, and therefore strongly discouraged any London Labour Party members from joining his campaign and thereby auto-excluding themselves from the party.
Corbyn will need a grassroots campaign in Islington North and will need to do the full VoterID from scratch. Most of the people he needs to do this are still Labour Party members and many of them want to continue to be.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Mar 24, 2024 11:52:55 GMT
All evidence suggests winning as an independent or with a smaller party is tough whatever the history of the individual is in the constituency, he has a high enough profile for it to be a possiblity but doubt it could ever be a certainty Sky high profile, almost certainty of 2 horse race with Labour, hated left could easily swarm this seat, Corbyn well on way to becoming a national treasure. He should be the favourite. But it is at least possible that could be a hindrance to Corbyn, rather than the opposite. Btw didn't he finally rule out standing for mayor this May just the other day? Its far from certain he does this, and it could yet depend on who the official Labour candidate is. |
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Post by johnloony on Mar 24, 2024 12:00:30 GMT
There was a crucial difference in the Ken Livingstone campaign. When he chose to run as an Independent, Ken Livingstone thought (correctly) he had enough name recognition, and could get enough conventional media coverage, to win without a substantial grassroots organisation, and therefore strongly discouraged any London Labour Party members from joining his campaign and thereby auto-excluding themselves from the party. Corbyn will need a grassroots campaign in Islington North and will need to do the full VoterID from scratch. Most of the people he needs to do this are still Labour Party members and many of them want to continue to be. But Corbyn has just as much fame and name-recognition (particularly within his own constituency) as Livingstone did across London. My interpretation of your statement is that the difference is therefore that Corbyn doesn’t have the sense to tell people not to expel themselves. |
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Merseymike
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Post by Merseymike on Mar 24, 2024 12:05:58 GMT
There was a crucial difference in the Ken Livingstone campaign. When he chose to run as an Independent, Ken Livingstone thought (correctly) he had enough name recognition, and could get enough conventional media coverage, to win without a substantial grassroots organisation, and therefore strongly discouraged any London Labour Party members from joining his campaign and thereby auto-excluding themselves from the party. Corbyn will need a grassroots campaign in Islington North and will need to do the full VoterID from scratch. Most of the people he needs to do this are still Labour Party members and many of them want to continue to be. I don't think the voter ID will be from scratch. I reckon all the information will sorted simply because the Islington North CLP have all the stuff. If a left wing candidate , say Sam Tarry, perhaps Jeremy decides not to contest. If it's a right wing candidate which Jeremy will contest, there will be a lot of ex-Labour people, helping Jeremy. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Mar 24, 2024 12:16:45 GMT
There was a crucial difference in the Ken Livingstone campaign. When he chose to run as an Independent, Ken Livingstone thought (correctly) he had enough name recognition, and could get enough conventional media coverage, to win without a substantial grassroots organisation, and therefore strongly discouraged any London Labour Party members from joining his campaign and thereby auto-excluding themselves from the party. Corbyn will need a grassroots campaign in Islington North and will need to do the full VoterID from scratch. Most of the people he needs to do this are still Labour Party members and many of them want to continue to be. But Corbyn has just as much fame and name-recognition (particularly within his own constituency) as Livingstone did across London. My interpretation of your statement is that the difference is therefore that Corbyn doesn’t have the sense to tell people not to expel themselves. That is true, but it's not what I mean. The 2000 London Mayoral election was the big election of the year, it was a new thing, all the media were in London, so it got all the attention. Quite different from being one unusual constituency in the middle of a long-awaited general election, which will be a unique contest that has no significance for the overall result. There's just not going to be the same level of outside engagement. Islington North isn't a special place exempt from the usual observation about how few people know which constituency they are in and who their MP is - if anything it has less salience because the population turnover is higher. A Corbyn Independent candidacy is going to have get through to local voters over a very loud prevailing Labour/Conservative campaign. |
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