|
|
Post by finsobruce on Mar 24, 2024 15:55:57 GMT
I'm in the seat next door if it helps. And was in Islington North CLP for about eighteen months about fifteen years ago. what happened 15 years ago? Nothing exciting or political. I moved flats.  |
|
|
|
Post by Old Fashioned Leftie on Mar 24, 2024 15:56:37 GMT
He certainly ticks box (a), less sure about (b) although with around 2/3 of the vote at the last election that is perhaps a little less important in this area of North London. The main interest will be around the 2/3rds although I do wonder if he may attract a few of the others who would nt vote Labour - especially perhaps those who voted Green last time? I'm not quite sure I see the logic that says that those who voted against Corbyn standing for a Corbyn-led Labour party last time might be more likely to vote for Corbyn as an Independent? Yes - there are some people who are just anti-Labour, but I'm not sure that the former Labour leader is going to have much appeal to them... Yes, which is mainly why I put a question mark after it as I am not sure but it may be possible if looking to give a bloody nose to Starmer especially if it is perceived he is watering down Labour's green policies. As a Labour Party member I am not suggesting he stands, but it would be a fascinating contest. |
|
Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,892
|
Post by Tony Otim on Mar 24, 2024 16:01:26 GMT
I'm not quite sure I see the logic that says that those who voted against Corbyn standing for a Corbyn-led Labour party last time might be more likely to vote for Corbyn as an Independent? Yes - there are some people who are just anti-Labour, but I'm not sure that the former Labour leader is going to have much appeal to them... Yes, which is mainly why I put a question mark after it as I am not sure but it may be possible if looking to give a bloody nose to Starmer especially if it is perceived he is watering down Labour's green policies. As a Labour Party member I am not suggesting he stands, but it would be a fascinating contest. I'm not sure Corbyn's green credentials are actually that strong to appeal to those protesting about watering down Green policies. However, he may have some appeal among left voters who voted for him last time but may otherwise consider voting Green this time? At the end of the day, I suspect he won't stand anyway... |
|
|
|
Post by No Offence Alan on Mar 24, 2024 16:03:28 GMT
It’s been noted before I’m sure but in 2005 despite any personal popularity Corbyn saw a similar swing to the Lib Dems from him that Labour had all over London, even though any Iraq protest vote clearly didn’t really need to apply to him personally Although as also noted his profile nationally is obviously far higher since then Just like 2015, when LD MPs' individual support for or opposition to new tuition fees made little or no difference to the swing against them. |
|
|
|
Post by mattbewilson on Mar 24, 2024 16:14:44 GMT
He certainly ticks box (a), less sure about (b) although with around 2/3 of the vote at the last election that is perhaps a little less important in this area of North London. The main interest will be around the 2/3rds although I do wonder if he may attract a few of the others who would nt vote Labour - especially perhaps those who voted Green last time? I'm not quite sure I see the logic that says that those who voted against Corbyn standing for a Corbyn-led Labour party last time might be more likely to vote for Corbyn as an Independent? Yes - there are some people who are just anti-Labour, but I'm not sure that the former Labour leader is going to have much appeal to them... don't apply logic to people's voting habits. There used to be a Tory on UK Polling Report who has only ever voted Tory and for Ken Livingston |
|
batman
Labour
Posts: 12,358 
Member is Online
|
Post by batman on Mar 24, 2024 16:16:35 GMT
I also do wonder whether there might be a possibility that a fair number of MPs from the Campaign Group could endorse Corbyn in public after nominations have closed.If circa 20 MPs did that it could create quite a headache for Starmer - too late to nominate replacement candidates. Would the party really disown such a large number of candidates - ie following the Rochdale pattern? yes, it would. And actually I think your speculation just got a bit more ridiculous than usual. Most of the Campaign Group MPs are extremely keen to remain Labour MPs and do understand the party rules. They know perfectly well that however much they may bemoan the party's change of direction they can't influence it from outside the tent. The only ones who might just conceivably do what you suggest are those who are either retiring voluntarily retiring (and at present we are only talking Ian Mearns, who is almost certainly too loyal to the Labour Party to do it), have already lost the Labour whip (Claudia Webbe or Diane Abbott) or haven't found a seat after failing to be selected (Sam Tarry, Mick Whitley or Beth Winter). I don't think for one moment Sam Tarry would do it, so that would leave a maximum of four. Not sure Corbyn would particularly be desperate for Claudia Webbe's endorsement. The rest of the Campaign Group parliamentary caucus might wish that Corbyn had the Whip returned to him, but they won't risk expulsion by openly supporting him. No Labour MP has ever escaped expulsion for openly endorsing an opposing candidate; Frank Field flirted with doing that but never actively encouraged people to vote for a candidate opposing a Labour Party candidate as a Labour MP, until he himself stood in 2019. You can forget a sizeable number of Labour MPs endorsing Corbyn or being seen in any way to further his campaign. |
|
batman
Labour
Posts: 12,358
Member is Online
|
Post by batman on Mar 24, 2024 16:18:19 GMT
Even the Campaign group isn't that stupid. But there remains a great deal of bitterness towards Starmer on account of his treatment of Corbyn and having blatantly lied during the 2020 Leadership campaign. Many on the Left would love to undermine him - 'Revenge is a dish best served cold.' If they behaved in the way I speculated , they effectively would have Starmer over a barrel in many seats across the country. Moreover,in a GE context such candidates would be almost certain to be elected whatever the reaction of National HQ. blatantly lied is your interpretation. Another perfectly respectable interpretation is that he has changed his mind given the circumstances. And they wouldn't have him over a barrel. They'd be expelled. They won't escape punishment just because graham from Vote UK said they might. |
|
batman
Labour
Posts: 12,358
Member is Online
|
Post by batman on Mar 24, 2024 16:20:03 GMT
Gonna be such a damp squib when Corbyn doesn't stand isn't it? And the shock when he's given a peerage (or ambassadorship to Venezuela) after the election. But explains why Labour need to do the candidature last minute - they can't afford to give Corbyn a run up if he is going to stand because he doesn't approve of the replacement. who would give him a peerage though? Keir Starmer certainly won't. |
|
batman
Labour
Posts: 12,358
Member is Online
|
Post by batman on Mar 24, 2024 16:21:45 GMT
In answer to your second question which you seem to have forgotten - yes, they would be excluded from the PLP.
And doing so after nominations had closed would be seen as an act of political chicanery. But that wouldn't stop them from winning. The two things are not mutually exclusive.
Political chicanery? Perish the thought! In the immediate aftermath they would face exclusion from the PLP , but that need not be permanent in that we have seen plenty of SDP defectors eventually readmitted to party membership. Starmer would have brought it on himself anyway - and depending on the GE result he might need their votes in Parliament A group of 20 MPs acting in that way would slash his majority by 40. As the polls currently stand, that might not matter too much but should they significantly narrow it could become important. it is true that some minor figures in the SDP were eventually readmitted to Labour Party membership, but none of the principal figures either sought or were granted it. And more to the point those that were readmitted had all since ceased to be MPs. |
|
batman
Labour
Posts: 12,358
Member is Online
|
Post by batman on Mar 24, 2024 16:25:28 GMT
Can I just say that, while it is correct to say that an independent Corbyn candidacy would certainly attract some people from at least a reasonable distance to his campaign, I hereby commit myself to campaigning for the official Labour candidate in the constituency if he runs, even if it is not my main campaigning location (which is likely to be Uxbridge & S Ruislip although with visits to other constituencies including the Worthing ones).
|
|
|
|
Post by mattbewilson on Mar 24, 2024 16:29:56 GMT
Can I just say that, while it is correct to say that an independent Corbyn candidacy would certainly attract some people from at least a reasonable distance to his campaign, I hereby commit myself to campaigning for the official Labour candidate in the constituency if he runs, even if it is not my main campaigning location (which is likely to be Uxbridge & S Ruislip although with visits to other constituencies including the Worthing ones). fear not |
|
|
|
Post by mattbewilson on Mar 24, 2024 16:30:43 GMT
Gonna be such a damp squib when Corbyn doesn't stand isn't it? And the shock when he's given a peerage (or ambassadorship to Venezuela) after the election. But explains why Labour need to do the candidature last minute - they can't afford to give Corbyn a run up if he is going to stand because he doesn't approve of the replacement. who would give him a peerage though? Keir Starmer certainly won't. certainly wouldn't accept it I imagine though |
|
graham
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,344
|
Post by graham on Mar 24, 2024 16:57:24 GMT
I also do wonder whether there might be a possibility that a fair number of MPs from the Campaign Group could endorse Corbyn in public after nominations have closed.If circa 20 MPs did that it could create quite a headache for Starmer - too late to nominate replacement candidates. Would the party really disown such a large number of candidates - ie following the Rochdale pattern? yes, it would. And actually I think your speculation just got a bit more ridiculous than usual. Most of the Campaign Group MPs are extremely keen to remain Labour MPs and do understand the party rules. They know perfectly well that however much they may bemoan the party's change of direction they can't influence it from outside the tent. The only ones who might just conceivably do what you suggest are those who are either retiring voluntarily retiring (and at present we are only talking Ian Mearns, who is almost certainly too loyal to the Labour Party to do it), have already lost the Labour whip (Claudia Webbe or Diane Abbott) or haven't found a seat after failing to be selected (Sam Tarry, Mick Whitley or Beth Winter). I don't think for one moment Sam Tarry would do it, so that would leave a maximum of four. Not sure Corbyn would particularly be desperate for Claudia Webbe's endorsement. The rest of the Campaign Group parliamentary caucus might wish that Corbyn had the Whip returned to him, but they won't risk expulsion by openly supporting him. No Labour MP has ever escaped expulsion for openly endorsing an opposing candidate; Frank Field flirted with doing that but never actively encouraged people to vote for a candidate opposing a Labour Party candidate as a Labour MP, until he himself stood in 2019. You can forget a sizeable number of Labour MPs endorsing Corbyn or being seen in any way to further his campaign. But many expulsions are not permanent. Luciana Berger has already been readmitted despite standing as a LD candidate in 2019. Others who joined the SDP were eventually allowed to return. The Parliamentary arithmetic would matter here. Were we looking at a Hung Parliament or a small Labour majority Campaign Group MPs would have leverage and could make their support conditional on the Whip being returned to Corbyn et al.
|
|
batman
Labour
Posts: 12,358
Member is Online
|
Post by batman on Mar 24, 2024 18:15:10 GMT
yes, it would. And actually I think your speculation just got a bit more ridiculous than usual. Most of the Campaign Group MPs are extremely keen to remain Labour MPs and do understand the party rules. They know perfectly well that however much they may bemoan the party's change of direction they can't influence it from outside the tent. The only ones who might just conceivably do what you suggest are those who are either retiring voluntarily retiring (and at present we are only talking Ian Mearns, who is almost certainly too loyal to the Labour Party to do it), have already lost the Labour whip (Claudia Webbe or Diane Abbott) or haven't found a seat after failing to be selected (Sam Tarry, Mick Whitley or Beth Winter). I don't think for one moment Sam Tarry would do it, so that would leave a maximum of four. Not sure Corbyn would particularly be desperate for Claudia Webbe's endorsement. The rest of the Campaign Group parliamentary caucus might wish that Corbyn had the Whip returned to him, but they won't risk expulsion by openly supporting him. No Labour MP has ever escaped expulsion for openly endorsing an opposing candidate; Frank Field flirted with doing that but never actively encouraged people to vote for a candidate opposing a Labour Party candidate as a Labour MP, until he himself stood in 2019. You can forget a sizeable number of Labour MPs endorsing Corbyn or being seen in any way to further his campaign. But many expulsions are not permanent. Luciana Berger has already been readmitted despite standing as a LD candidate in 2019. Others who joined the SDP were eventually allowed to return. The Parliamentary arithmetic would matter here. Were we looking at a Hung Parliament or a small Labour majority Campaign Group MPs would have leverage and could make their support conditional on the Whip being returned to Corbyn et al.
a hung parliament? You really think so? (I know quite a lot of the Campaign Groupies. They really aren’t at all likely to risk their careers. Would you if you were them? I doubt it) |
|
right
Conservative
Posts: 18,761
|
Post by right on Mar 24, 2024 19:32:20 GMT
But Corbyn has just as much fame and name-recognition (particularly within his own constituency) as Livingstone did across London. My interpretation of your statement is that the difference is therefore that Corbyn doesn’t have the sense to tell people not to expel themselves. That is true, but it's not what I mean. The 2000 London Mayoral election was the big election of the year, it was a new thing, all the media were in London, so it got all the attention. Quite different from being one unusual constituency in the middle of a long-awaited general election, which will be a unique contest that has no significance for the overall result. There's just not going to be the same level of outside engagement. Islington North isn't a special place exempt from the usual observation about how few people know which constituency they are in and who their MP is - if anything it has less salience because the population turnover is higher. A Corbyn Independent candidacy is going to have get through to local voters over a very loud prevailing Labour/Conservative campaign. If the Tories have any sense they won't lift a finger and not even send an address. It's a shame they feel they have to be in every constituency because this might be one to sit out. It could be a small headache for Labour and swing Corbyn- Labour voters need to believe the Tories don't exist. |
|
graham
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,344
|
Post by graham on Mar 24, 2024 20:29:10 GMT
But many expulsions are not permanent. Luciana Berger has already been readmitted despite standing as a LD candidate in 2019. Others who joined the SDP were eventually allowed to return. The Parliamentary arithmetic would matter here. Were we looking at a Hung Parliament or a small Labour majority Campaign Group MPs would have leverage and could make their support conditional on the Whip being returned to Corbyn et al.
a hung parliament? You really think so? (I know quite a lot of the Campaign Groupies. They really aren’t at all likely to risk their careers. Would you if you were them? I doubt it) Were I a Campaign Group MP contemplating my last term in Parliament I would not have much to lose from endorsing Corbyn. |
|
|
|
Post by mattbewilson on Mar 24, 2024 20:49:10 GMT
Campaign Group MPs endorsing Corbyn is as likely as Corbyn standing as independent
|
|
john07
Labour & Co-operative
Posts: 15,774
|
Post by john07 on Apr 1, 2024 9:15:53 GMT
All evidence suggests winning as an independent or with a smaller party is tough whatever the history of the individual is in the constituency, he has a high enough profile for it to be a possiblity but doubt it could ever be a certainty Dick Taverne, Eddie Milne and S O Davies managed it. Dave Nellist came close to holding on in 1992. Not to mention Dennis Canavan for the Falkirk West seat in the Scottish Parliament in 1999 and 2003. |
|
iang
Lib Dem
Posts: 1,813
|
Post by iang on Apr 1, 2024 14:41:34 GMT
Only Nellist was really a left wing rebel though. Taverne was of course proto SDP, Milne it was at least partially about local / council issues, and if I recall rightly, Davies was deselected because of his age (and the local party sort of had the last laugh in that he passed away within a year and Labour comfortably regained the seat in the resulting by-election). Only Nellist really fits the Corbyn template
|
|
stb12
Top Poster
Posts: 8,365
|
Post by stb12 on Apr 1, 2024 14:47:11 GMT
And the Peter Law/ Blaenau Gwent People’s Voice situation was over a row about the national party imposing an all women shortlist
|
|
