Chingford and Woodford Green

[The Bishop]

Jul 5, 2024 10:51:18 GMT batman said:

There has been a lot of demographic change here since the seat was safe for IDS, but it has I think gone so far & no further; the Tories are still very strong in northern Chingford & Monkhams ward & plenty of people including myself have underestimated that aspect.

Yeah the top end of this seat is still very much Essex rather than NE London, that is true.

[Johncrane]

Do  you guys think it's possible that the Labour Hierarchy offer Faiza to be the candidate for the next general election so they can put the controversial selection stuff behind them (Like Ken Livingstone)? Not to mention they could probably sell it as making amends to the former labour  voters that left them this election. 

[iain]

No. She has had her 5 minutes of fame and will be an irrelevance going forward.

[Deleted]

Jul 5, 2024 16:14:29 GMT iain said:

No. She has had her 5 minutes of fame and will be an irrelevance going forward.

The percentage she got will go to her head. She has a huge ego. She was crying at the count. Does she have the stomach to be an MP? Genuine question. 

[kevinf]

Jul 5, 2024 16:12:14 GMT Johncrane said:

Do  you guys think it's possible that the Labour Hierarchy offer Faiza to be the candidate for the next general election so they can put the controversial selection stuff behind them (Like Ken Livingstone)? Not to mention they could probably sell it as making amends to the former labour  voters that left them this election. 

No. Zero chance. Much as I would like them to.

[norflondon]

Agreed. She will never be forgiven by Southside

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Jul 5, 2024 16:16:49 GMT norflondon said:

Agreed. She will never be forgiven by Southside

Southside has been demolished.

[norflondon]

Yes, ty I meant to write Southworks

[redtony]

Did Starmer want IDS to win

[where2travel]

Did IDS himself even want to win? Before all this, I assume he'd come to terms with the idea that the game was up for him this time and that was it. Although I suppose he'd probably have retired if he genuinely didn't want a place in the Commons after this election.

[swanarcadian]

Jul 5, 2024 22:15:11 GMT where2travel said:

Did IDS himself even want to win? Before all this, I assume he'd come to terms with the idea that the game was up for him this time and that was it. Although I suppose he'd probably have retired if he genuinely didn't want a place in the Commons after this election.

I think he did. He and his campaign team were working flat out from what I can gather. He could have said “oh sod this, maybe I’ll stand somewhere like Leicester East, just to be helpful..”

[Deleted]

Jul 5, 2024 22:15:11 GMT where2travel said:

Did IDS himself even want to win? Before all this, I assume he'd come to terms with the idea that the game was up for him this time and that was it. Although I suppose he'd probably have retired if he genuinely didn't want a place in the Commons after this election.

Yes I think he rates himself an assiduous constituency MP and just thinks the media write him off (IMO they do that due to him being a big 'Vote Leave' figure in 2016).

[rcronald]

If IDS is as savvy as I think he is, he would represent his opposition to China as a partially Muslim human rights issue to his Muslim constituents. While I doubt that it would get him that many votes, it would decrease the enthusiasm against him in a constituency where the demographic doomsday clock seems (to the surprise of all of us) to have slowed down considerably over the last couple of years.

[Deleted]

Jul 6, 2024 5:37:24 GMT rcronald said:

If IDS is as savvy as I think he is, he would represent his opposition to China as a partially Muslim human rights issue to his Muslim constituents. While I doubt that it would get him that many votes, it would decrease the enthusiasm against him in a constituency where the demographic doomsday clock seems (to the surprise of all of us) to have slowed down considerably over the last couple of years.

Smart Alec. It may just work. It's slowed down because Waltham Forest is gentrifrying. Walthamstow was the London seat where the white percentage increased. Not many of even the most successful Muslim businessmen in the East End can afford a house in areas like Highams Park. A lot of it is white liberal yummy mummies. 

[rcronald]

Jul 6, 2024 5:55:21 GMT @weld said:

Jul 6, 2024 5:37:24 GMT rcronald said:

If IDS is as savvy as I think he is, he would represent his opposition to China as a partially Muslim human rights issue to his Muslim constituents. While I doubt that it would get him that many votes, it would decrease the enthusiasm against him in a constituency where the demographic doomsday clock seems (to the surprise of all of us) to have slowed down considerably over the last couple of years.

Smart Alec. It may just work. It's slowed down because Waltham Forest is gentrifrying. Walthamstow was the London seat where the white percentage increased. Not many of even the most successful Muslim businessmen in the East End can afford a house in areas like Highams Park. A lot of it is white liberal yummy mummies. 

Yes, I think I’ve already mentioned elsewhere that the white British decline and the Asian increase between 2011-2021 were not insignificantly smaller than I expected (but the black increase was bigger).

[Deleted]

Jul 6, 2024 5:59:38 GMT rcronald said:

Jul 6, 2024 5:55:21 GMT @weld said:

Smart Alec. It may just work. It's slowed down because Waltham Forest is gentrifrying. Walthamstow was the London seat where the white percentage increased. Not many of even the most successful Muslim businessmen in the East End can afford a house in areas like Highams Park. A lot of it is white liberal yummy mummies. 

Yes, I think I’ve already mentioned elsewhere that the white British decline and the Asian increase between 2011-2021 were not insignificantly smaller than I expected (but the black increase was bigger).

I still think IDS wins sans Faiza Shaheen. Clearly, the Greens have a lot of potential around Highams Park (especially the more inner city parts of the area). 

CON 35% LAB 34% GRN 13% LD 10% RFM 8% (putting the Green into the Chingford & Woodford Green constituency). IDS wins by about 500 votes.

Reform don't surge quite enough for Labour to unseat IDS because he's a famous Vote Leave supporting Maastricht rebel right winger and China sceptic.  

[jakegb]

IDS has been candid about the fact that many of his colleagues did not put the ground work in their previously safe constituencies - and were complacent about the challenges posed by Lab/Reform.

Going forward, the Tories are going to need to push the local offer much more, like the Lib Dems regularly do.
It worked well for IDS this time around, though I accept the splitting of the left-wing vote was also a much needed lifeline. The same can also be said for Robbie Moore in Keighley and Ilkley; another seat that (on paper) Labour should have easily gained.

[mboy]

Jul 6, 2024 5:37:24 GMT rcronald said:

If IDS is as savvy as I think he is, he would represent his opposition to China as a partially Muslim human rights issue to his Muslim constituents. While I doubt that it would get him that many votes, it would decrease the enthusiasm against him in a constituency where the demographic doomsday clock seems (to the surprise of all of us) to have slowed down considerably over the last couple of years.

Evidence from around the world suggests that Muslims don't really care much about Chinese abuse of Muslims (or about the other Occupation - of Tibet). In fact, they're willing to support it, if it means Chinese support against Jews.

[Deleted]

Jul 6, 2024 7:38:33 GMT mboy said:

Jul 6, 2024 5:37:24 GMT rcronald said:

If IDS is as savvy as I think he is, he would represent his opposition to China as a partially Muslim human rights issue to his Muslim constituents. While I doubt that it would get him that many votes, it would decrease the enthusiasm against him in a constituency where the demographic doomsday clock seems (to the surprise of all of us) to have slowed down considerably over the last couple of years.

Evidence from around the world suggests that Muslims don't really care much about Chinese abuse of Muslims (or about the other Occupation - of Tibet). In fact, they're willing to support it, if it means Chinese support against Jews.

Sample size of 1 - the wife never talks about Chinese in Xinjiang, Myanmar or Saudi's recent attrocities in Yemen, but will talk about Gaza every single day without fail. 

[rcronald]

Jul 6, 2024 7:40:43 GMT @weld said:

Jul 6, 2024 7:38:33 GMT mboy said:

Evidence from around the world suggests that Muslims don't really care much about Chinese abuse of Muslims (or about the other Occupation - of Tibet). In fact, they're willing to support it, if it means Chinese support against Jews.

Sample size of 1 - the wife never talks about Chinese in Xinjiang, Myanmar or Saudi's recent attrocities in Yemen, but will talk about Gaza every single day without fail. 

While I happen to think that what’s happening in Xinjiang is being overblown by opponents of China, the fact that South Asian Muslims don’t seem to care at all about the ethnic cleansing (and perhaps genocide) of Muslims that is happening in Myanmar is rather appalling, especially when you realise the proximity to Bangladesh. I’m pretty sure that a lot (not all) of Muslims are just using Gaza as a justification for their hatred of Jews rather than actually caring about Muslims in Gaza.