Chingford and Woodford Green

[stb12]

Chingford and Woodford Green

[John Chanin]

Link to profile

[Pete Whitehead]

Notional results since 1945. The 2019 result is the 'official' (Thrasher & Rallings) notional - the others are my own work.

	Con	Lab	Lib	Ind
1945	51.1%	28.2%	11.4%	9.3%
1950	55.2%	33.7%	10.6%
1951	60.7%	36.7%	1.5%
1955	60.2%	31.8%	8.0%
1959	59.3%	30.5%	10.1%
1964	52.8%	29.2%	18.0%
1966	51.8%	35.8%	12.5%

	Con	Lab	Lib/LD	NF/BNP
1970	61.4%	33.7%	5.0%
1974	47.3%	28.0%	24.7%
1974	49.5%	31.1%	19.4%
1979	60.4%	24.5%	11.7%	2.4%
1983	59.1%	15.5%	23.0%
1987	63.8%	15.4%	19.8%
1992	61.5%	22.7%	13.4%

	Con	Lab	LD	Ref/UKIP/ BXP	BNP	Green
1997	46.5%	36.5%	14.7%		2.3%
2001	47.3%	35.1%	14.8%		2.7%
2005	51.0%	28.0%	17.5%	2.8%
2010	52.0%	23.7%	16.3%	2.6%	3.2%
2015	47.6%	29.8%	5.1%	12.8%	3.5%	4.2%
2017	48.2%	45.4%	4.1%			2.3%
2019	48.2%	45.3%	5.8%	0.3%		0.4%

[swanarcadian]

I have to admire IDS’ bravery in standing again here and campaigning hard, knowing he’s going to lose. He’s a brave and decent man. His detractors will laugh at him and pretend it’s his fault, when they know it’s down to demographic changes and the national tide.

[Deleted]

May 29, 2024 11:52:33 GMT swanarcadian said:

I have to admire IDS’ bravery in standing again here and campaigning hard, knowing he’s going to lose. He’s a brave and decent man. His detractors will laugh at him and pretend it’s his fault, when they know it’s down to demographic changes and the national tide.

I do too and it reminds me of John Major's former PPS Graham Bright in 1997, but you can't escape the fact that IDS will get a big payout if he loses. 

[jakegb]

IDS's commitment to C & WG is admirable, when you hear of so many other ex-Tory MPs switching to safer seats or jumping ship completely.
Also worth mentioning the very ugly/personal campaign he experienced in 19.
Clearly, demographic change has damaged IDS and the Tories here, though the decline of the Lib Dems' vote share (from 18% peak in 05 to just over 4% in 17) can also explain Labour's new-found competitiveness.

I notice his Lab opponent has already got herself in hot water with ant-Israel remarks. Not a great fit for Starmer's new and changed Lab party.

[stb12]

May 29, 2024 11:52:33 GMT swanarcadian said:

I have to admire IDS’ bravery in standing again here and campaigning hard, knowing he’s going to lose. He’s a brave and decent man. His detractors will laugh at him and pretend it’s his fault, when they know it’s down to demographic changes and the national tide.

It’s likely under the circumstances that his name will see the Tories lose by less than a new candidate would

[Foggy]

I don't think Smith, for all his faults, is motivated by the payout for standing again rather than retiring. And considering his previous career he hardly needs to prove his bravery either but his course of action in re-offering is at least honourable when compared with many of his colleagues.

When he was LOTO the thought of the Tories losing this was unfathomable so the change in voting behaviour here really is largely down to demographics.

[Deleted]

It's still possible that Faiza Shaheen is blocked from standing here. Imagine a scenario where she runs as an independent or for the Workers' Party and IDS holds on! 

[matureleft]

While I of course see him as mistaken on many things I’ve never doubted that he is motivated by a desire to serve and to address problems.

[matureleft]

May 29, 2024 17:29:58 GMT @weld said:

It's still possible that Faiza Shaheen is blocked from standing here. Imagine a scenario where she runs as an independent or for the Workers' Party and IDS holds on! 

The allegations against Russell-Moyle are personal in nature relating to fairly distant events (as I understand). 

[gwynthegriff]

May 29, 2024 17:36:35 GMT matureleft said:

While I of course see him as mistaken on many things I’ve never doubted that he is motivated by a desire to serve and to address problems.

And, given he is 70, why rat-run?

[Pete Whitehead]

May 29, 2024 17:29:58 GMT @weld said:

It's still possible that Faiza Shaheen is blocked from standing here.

That would be nice

[mrsir]

The Times reporting that Shaheen will be suspended.

Good - she is seriously unpleasant.

[Forfarshire Conservative]

May 29, 2024 16:10:03 GMT jakegb said:

IDS's commitment to C & WG is admirable, when you hear of so many other ex-Tory MPs switching to safer seats or jumping ship completely.
Also worth mentioning the very ugly/personal campaign he experienced in 19.
Clearly, demographic change has damaged IDS and the Tories here, though the decline of the Lib Dems' vote share (from 18% peak in 05 to just over 4% in 17) can also explain Labour's new-found competitiveness.

I notice his Lab opponent has already got herself in hot water with ant-Israel remarks. Not a great fit for Starmer's new and changed Lab party.

He's a march to the sound of the guns kind of guy, not like the many other cowards running and denying their constituents the chance to have their moments to judge them. 

[stb12]

May 29, 2024 17:36:35 GMT matureleft said:

While I of course see him as mistaken on many things I’ve never doubted that he is motivated by a desire to serve and to address problems.

There was an early feeling (because I wasn’t even quite 18 when the coalition came to power) of mine concerning feeling disconnect from party political discourse because of how Iain Duncan Smith got talked about

While I got that criticism of what he was doing or trying/failing to do with welfare was legitimate the concept floating about that he was this evil psychopath setting out to murder poor and disabled people just seemed so over the top and unrealistic. Even after he’s not even been in government for over eight years you’ll probably still hear people gloating about his electoral defeat on that basis

[matureleft]

May 29, 2024 19:36:56 GMT stb12 said:

May 29, 2024 17:36:35 GMT matureleft said:

While I of course see him as mistaken on many things I’ve never doubted that he is motivated by a desire to serve and to address problems.

There was an early feeling (because I wasn’t even quite 18 when the coalition came to power) of mine concerning feeling disconnect from party political discourse because of how Iain Duncan Smith got talked about

While I got that criticism of what he was doing or trying/failing to do with welfare was legitimate the concept floating about that he was this evil psychopath setting out to murder poor and disabled people just seemed so over the top and unrealistic. Even after he’s not even been in government for over eight years you’ll probably still hear people gloating about his electoral defeat on that basis

Yes. Sad. My experience of him was limited but I sensed a moral man with genuine intent to do good as he saw it. I’m not a hater really. Perhaps I see more positives in people than many. I felt uncomfortable at the hammering he took when Tory leader - his ‘quiet man’ phase. 

Someone believing something that you find wrong isn’t necessarily evil. And, as I’m sure I’ve said before, hate blinds not just to someone’s strengths but also to their weaknesses that you may want to tackle. It’s a really unhelpful emotion in politics (and in life generally). 

[LDCaerdydd]

Shaheen is about to be interviewed on Newsnight.

Update: Part of her ‘defence’ was “I didn’t retweet it, I just liked it” (with regards to series of tweets dismissing antisemitism accusations from the “hysterical” Israel lobby and claimed Labour was “institutionally Islamophobic”).

[Merseymike]

May 29, 2024 21:36:10 GMT LDCaerdydd said:

Shaheen is about to be interviewed on Newsnight.

Appalling - Labour are disgusting.
A broad church? Nah!!!
Every new candidate is right-wing/moderate.

[stb12]

Could the Labour candidate who initially slashed the majority here in 2017 be put on instead?