CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,716
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Post by CatholicLeft on Jul 1, 2024 17:15:35 GMT
A poll doing the rounds claiming Duncan Smith will hold on is somewhat undermined by the idea that his vote share is only down by 5%, which is a ridiculous idea. ![https://x.com/adb0wen/status/1807375954181796262]()  Is that necessarily the case in London ? I have been expecting a relatively small pro-Labour swing there - if only because of the big advances made there in 2017 - and in some places in 2019. It is based on an MRP. Other projections show a bigger drop. |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Jul 1, 2024 17:17:34 GMT
This seat is cursed for the left. We'll still be here in 2034 when IDS wins by 2 votes over Labour because of a Marxist-Leninist Higham Hill people's party candidate. |
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Post by Johncrane on Jul 1, 2024 18:41:34 GMT
Is that necessarily the case in London ? I have been expecting a relatively small pro-Labour swing there - if only because of the big advances made there in 2017 - and in some places in 2019. It is based on an MRP. Other projections show a bigger drop. I think IPSOS used random probability sampling which is considered to be the best way to sample had IDS on 37 and LAB on 40. Obviously mrps can't fully account for local factors but it's a possibility that he has a good personal vote which could reduce the amount of votes the tories would lose |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Jul 2, 2024 8:06:27 GMT
This is a 35 - 30 - 20 seat with the others scrapping for the rest. There just aren't enough Muslim voters here for Faiza to take it (which is a shame) but an indepdent has a clearer path in Ilford North (which is probably around 35% Muslim now and where there's evidence that other demographics are sympathetic to Ms Mohamad, than here. I see this seat in the same vein as Kensington & Bayswater - seats Labour should be wining by a country mile, but where independents are parking their tanks on Labour's lawn to the point that Labour winning can't be assured. Yes, this is a more likely Tory hold than Chingford, but in K&B you have Ladbroke Grove and Bayswater where the Gaza issue probably has genuine cut-though with voters, especially in the former where people have now Emma on BRKC council for the last 18 years. Labour should win there, but Emma, plus the Tories holding up more than they deserve to because of VAT on private schools, puts the seat in play.
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Post by norflondon on Jul 2, 2024 18:38:17 GMT
Shaheen with a beautifully written post about polls they use and with the best explanation by a ppc of MRP I have seen. Ought to delight psephologists and poll watchers
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Post by london(ex)tory on Jul 2, 2024 22:01:47 GMT
Shaheen with a beautifully written post about polls they use and with the best explanation by a ppc of MRP I have seen. Ought to delight psephologists and poll watchers Apart from she’s talking out of her front bottom. She won’t get more than 15% and if she does, the only winner will be IDS. |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Jul 5, 2024 2:13:49 GMT
LOL
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Post by norflondon on Jul 5, 2024 2:51:43 GMT
12,000 27% for Shaheen delivers a fatal blow to the parachuted Labour candidate .
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Post by rcronald on Jul 5, 2024 3:01:26 GMT
12,000 27% for Shaheen delivers a fatal blow to the parachuted Labour candidate . Repsect for the Shaheen believers. I was wrong and I’m extremely happy to say that. |
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Post by jakegb on Jul 5, 2024 4:39:22 GMT
12,000 27% for Shaheen delivers a fatal blow to the parachuted Labour candidate . Repsect for the Shaheen believers. I was wrong and I’m extremely happy to say that. I too underestimated her appeal to the C&WG electorate, so credit there. But also big credit to IDS for fighting his marginal seat, not abandoning it like so many of his colleagues. Yes he had some luck on his side, but his resilience in fighting a seat rapidly moving against the Tories (in terms of demographics) is admirable. |
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stb12
Top Poster
Posts: 8,375 
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Post by stb12 on Jul 5, 2024 4:46:29 GMT
Iain Duncan Smith must have planned to go down fighting but basically getting ready for retired life, it will feel pretty bizarre to have held on
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andrea
Non-Aligned
Posts: 7,772
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Post by andrea on Jul 5, 2024 10:21:45 GMT
Yeah, I add myself to those confessing that they did not think Shaheen would have a relevant result.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 5, 2024 10:29:28 GMT
Yeah, I add myself to those confessing that they did not think Shaheen would have a relevant result. Well her fibbing that she was best placed to win clearly helped. Not that Labour were blameless in how they went about things (or, maybe, their choice to replace her either) Something where both sides have to share some of the blame. After all, put together the Labour and Shaheen votes still outpolled IDS easily. |
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Post by rcronald on Jul 5, 2024 10:40:29 GMT
Lab+Faiza = 51.5% (+5.6%)
IDS+Reform = 43.1% (-5.4%)
A rather underwhelming swing even if you put Lab+Shaheen together.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 5, 2024 10:42:42 GMT
Lab+Faiza = 51.5% (+5.6%) IDS+Reform = 43.1% (-5.4%) A rather underwhelming swing even if you put Lab+Shaheen together. I think the "wastage" from one group there is maybe a bit bigger than the other, though. |
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Post by rcronald on Jul 5, 2024 10:44:02 GMT
Lab+Faiza = 51.5% (+5.6%) IDS+Reform = 43.1% (-5.4%) A rather underwhelming swing even if you put Lab+Shaheen together. I think the "wastage" from one group there is maybe a bit bigger than the other, though. Of course, but I don’t think that anyone would have expected Labour+Faiza to only beat IDS+Reform by just 8%… |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 5, 2024 10:47:58 GMT
Labour did better than average here in both 2017 and 2019, don't forget.
Talking of which, I do wonder why we didn't stand our 2017 candidate again once Shaheen was excluded.
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Post by batman on Jul 5, 2024 10:51:18 GMT
There has been a lot of demographic change here since the seat was safe for IDS, but it has I think gone so far & no further; the Tories are still very strong in northern Chingford & Monkhams ward & plenty of people including myself have underestimated that aspect.
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Post by swanarcadian on Jul 5, 2024 11:26:42 GMT
I have to admire IDS’ bravery in standing again here and campaigning hard, knowing he’s going to lose. He’s a brave and decent man. His detractors will laugh at him and pretend it’s his fault, when they know it’s down to demographic changes and the national tide. Note to self: Do not underestimate the determination of a quiet man. |
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Post by greatkingrat on Jul 5, 2024 11:30:08 GMT
12,000 27% for Shaheen delivers a fatal blow to the parachuted Labour candidate . 12000 27% for Labour delivers a fatal blow to the batshit Indy. |
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