|
Post by stb12 on Mar 13, 2024 21:37:01 GMT
Chingford and Woodford Green
|
|
|
Post by John Chanin on Mar 18, 2024 4:03:36 GMT
|
|
|
Post by Pete Whitehead on Apr 26, 2024 16:54:58 GMT
Notional results since 1945. The 2019 result is the 'official' (Thrasher & Rallings) notional - the others are my own work. | Con | Lab | Lib | Ind | | | | | | 1945 | 51.1% | 28.2% | 11.4% | 9.3% | 1950 | 55.2% | 33.7% | 10.6% | | 1951 | 60.7% | 36.7% | 1.5% | | 1955 | 60.2% | 31.8% | 8.0% | | 1959 | 59.3% | 30.5% | 10.1% | | 1964 | 52.8% | 29.2% | 18.0% | | 1966 | 51.8% | 35.8% | 12.5% | |
| Con | Lab | Lib/LD | NF/BNP | | | | | | 1970 | 61.4% | 33.7% | 5.0% | | 1974 | 47.3% | 28.0% | 24.7% | | 1974 | 49.5% | 31.1% | 19.4% | | 1979 | 60.4% | 24.5% | 11.7% | 2.4% | 1983 | 59.1% | 15.5% | 23.0% | | 1987 | 63.8% | 15.4% | 19.8% | | 1992 | 61.5% | 22.7% | 13.4% | |
| Con | Lab | LD | Ref/UKIP/ BXP | BNP | Green | | | | | | | | 1997 | 46.5% | 36.5% | 14.7% | | 2.3% | | 2001 | 47.3% | 35.1% | 14.8% | | 2.7% | | 2005 | 51.0% | 28.0% | 17.5% | 2.8% | | | 2010 | 52.0% | 23.7% | 16.3% | 2.6% | 3.2% | | 2015 | 47.6% | 29.8% | 5.1% | 12.8% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 2017 | 48.2% | 45.4% | 4.1% | | | 2.3% | 2019 | 48.2% | 45.3% | 5.8% | 0.3% | | 0.4% |
|
|
|
Post by swanarcadian on May 29, 2024 11:52:33 GMT
I have to admire IDS’ bravery in standing again here and campaigning hard, knowing he’s going to lose. He’s a brave and decent man. His detractors will laugh at him and pretend it’s his fault, when they know it’s down to demographic changes and the national tide.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on May 29, 2024 16:05:30 GMT
I have to admire IDS’ bravery in standing again here and campaigning hard, knowing he’s going to lose. He’s a brave and decent man. His detractors will laugh at him and pretend it’s his fault, when they know it’s down to demographic changes and the national tide. I do too and it reminds me of John Major's former PPS Graham Bright in 1997, but you can't escape the fact that IDS will get a big payout if he loses.
|
|
|
Post by jakegb on May 29, 2024 16:10:03 GMT
IDS's commitment to C & WG is admirable, when you hear of so many other ex-Tory MPs switching to safer seats or jumping ship completely. Also worth mentioning the very ugly/personal campaign he experienced in 19. Clearly, demographic change has damaged IDS and the Tories here, though the decline of the Lib Dems' vote share (from 18% peak in 05 to just over 4% in 17) can also explain Labour's new-found competitiveness.
I notice his Lab opponent has already got herself in hot water with ant-Israel remarks. Not a great fit for Starmer's new and changed Lab party.
|
|
|
Post by stb12 on May 29, 2024 16:39:18 GMT
I have to admire IDS’ bravery in standing again here and campaigning hard, knowing he’s going to lose. He’s a brave and decent man. His detractors will laugh at him and pretend it’s his fault, when they know it’s down to demographic changes and the national tide. It’s likely under the circumstances that his name will see the Tories lose by less than a new candidate would
|
|
Foggy
Non-Aligned
Yn Ennill Yma
Posts: 5,993
|
Post by Foggy on May 29, 2024 17:00:36 GMT
I don't think Smith, for all his faults, is motivated by the payout for standing again rather than retiring. And considering his previous career he hardly needs to prove his bravery either but his course of action in re-offering is at least honourable when compared with many of his colleagues.
When he was LOTO the thought of the Tories losing this was unfathomable so the change in voting behaviour here really is largely down to demographics.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on May 29, 2024 17:29:58 GMT
It's still possible that Faiza Shaheen is blocked from standing here. Imagine a scenario where she runs as an independent or for the Workers' Party and IDS holds on!
|
|
|
Post by matureleft on May 29, 2024 17:36:35 GMT
While I of course see him as mistaken on many things I’ve never doubted that he is motivated by a desire to serve and to address problems.
|
|
|
Post by matureleft on May 29, 2024 17:38:19 GMT
It's still possible that Faiza Shaheen is blocked from standing here. Imagine a scenario where she runs as an independent or for the Workers' Party and IDS holds on! The allegations against Russell-Moyle are personal in nature relating to fairly distant events (as I understand).
|
|
|
Post by gwynthegriff on May 29, 2024 17:45:08 GMT
While I of course see him as mistaken on many things I’ve never doubted that he is motivated by a desire to serve and to address problems. And, given he is 70, why rat-run?
|
|
|
Post by Pete Whitehead on May 29, 2024 17:46:52 GMT
It's still possible that Faiza Shaheen is blocked from standing here. That would be nice
|
|
|
Post by mrsir on May 29, 2024 18:13:13 GMT
The Times reporting that Shaheen will be suspended.
Good - she is seriously unpleasant.
|
|
|
Post by Forfarshire Conservative on May 29, 2024 18:15:55 GMT
IDS's commitment to C & WG is admirable, when you hear of so many other ex-Tory MPs switching to safer seats or jumping ship completely. Also worth mentioning the very ugly/personal campaign he experienced in 19. Clearly, demographic change has damaged IDS and the Tories here, though the decline of the Lib Dems' vote share (from 18% peak in 05 to just over 4% in 17) can also explain Labour's new-found competitiveness. I notice his Lab opponent has already got herself in hot water with ant-Israel remarks. Not a great fit for Starmer's new and changed Lab party. He's a march to the sound of the guns kind of guy, not like the many other cowards running and denying their constituents the chance to have their moments to judge them.
|
|
|
Post by stb12 on May 29, 2024 19:36:56 GMT
While I of course see him as mistaken on many things I’ve never doubted that he is motivated by a desire to serve and to address problems. There was an early feeling (because I wasn’t even quite 18 when the coalition came to power) of mine concerning feeling disconnect from party political discourse because of how Iain Duncan Smith got talked about While I got that criticism of what he was doing or trying/failing to do with welfare was legitimate the concept floating about that he was this evil psychopath setting out to murder poor and disabled people just seemed so over the top and unrealistic. Even after he’s not even been in government for over eight years you’ll probably still hear people gloating about his electoral defeat on that basis
|
|
|
Post by matureleft on May 29, 2024 21:33:59 GMT
While I of course see him as mistaken on many things I’ve never doubted that he is motivated by a desire to serve and to address problems. There was an early feeling (because I wasn’t even quite 18 when the coalition came to power) of mine concerning feeling disconnect from party political discourse because of how Iain Duncan Smith got talked about While I got that criticism of what he was doing or trying/failing to do with welfare was legitimate the concept floating about that he was this evil psychopath setting out to murder poor and disabled people just seemed so over the top and unrealistic. Even after he’s not even been in government for over eight years you’ll probably still hear people gloating about his electoral defeat on that basis Yes. Sad. My experience of him was limited but I sensed a moral man with genuine intent to do good as he saw it. I’m not a hater really. Perhaps I see more positives in people than many. I felt uncomfortable at the hammering he took when Tory leader - his ‘quiet man’ phase. Someone believing something that you find wrong isn’t necessarily evil. And, as I’m sure I’ve said before, hate blinds not just to someone’s strengths but also to their weaknesses that you may want to tackle. It’s a really unhelpful emotion in politics (and in life generally).
|
|
|
Post by LDCaerdydd on May 29, 2024 21:36:10 GMT
Shaheen is about to be interviewed on Newsnight.
Update: Part of her ‘defence’ was “I didn’t retweet it, I just liked it” (with regards to series of tweets dismissing antisemitism accusations from the “hysterical” Israel lobby and claimed Labour was “institutionally Islamophobic”).
|
|
|
Post by Merseymike on May 29, 2024 21:49:59 GMT
Shaheen is about to be interviewed on Newsnight. Appalling - Labour are disgusting. A broad church? Nah!!! Every new candidate is right-wing/moderate.
|
|
|
Post by stb12 on May 29, 2024 21:52:53 GMT
Could the Labour candidate who initially slashed the majority here in 2017 be put on instead?
|
|