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Post by norflondon on Jun 17, 2024 21:53:20 GMT
Shahee 22% IS foreseeable. It is just 11,000 votes so yeah but I rather think she'll get around 6,000 votes. Not enough to win But that might be enough to scupper Keir's pal's plans, who was parachuted in at the last minute, bouncing off an outstanding Labour candidate.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 18, 2024 1:32:24 GMT
A 3% swing sees Labour win by three a half points here, but even if Faiza Shaheen keeps her deposit, it's easy to see how she saves Sir Iain Duncan Smith's bacon. Do not forget that both Reform UK and the Liberal Democrats will eat significantly into the Conservative vote here. Reform might not do as well as UKP did in 2015 because IDS was so publicly associated with Vote Leave and China scepticism is his new cause celebre. Liberal Democrats in the London Assembly voted for Mayor Khan's ULEZ expansion to the Greater London boundary, shifting its border from the North Circular (where it was since October 2021) to include all of Chingford & Woodford Green constituency, something which I'm sure IDS brings up. |
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Post by michaelarden on Jun 18, 2024 21:00:51 GMT
A 3% swing sees Labour win by three a half points here, but even if Faiza Shaheen keeps her deposit, it's easy to see how she saves Sir Iain Duncan Smith's bacon. Do not forget that both Reform UK and the Liberal Democrats will eat significantly into the Conservative vote here. I don't think the Lib Dems will be eating into the Conservative vote here. If they are getting big vote increases in places like Wimbledon or Surrey, yet their national poll rating is barely the same as last time then they'll see their vote fall further in places they're not targeting. They need to be polling 2015 levels in hundreds of seats to make the big gains. |
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Jun 18, 2024 21:17:12 GMT
Do not forget that both Reform UK and the Liberal Democrats will eat significantly into the Conservative vote here. I don't think the Lib Dems will be eating into the Conservative vote here. If they are getting big vote increases in places like Wimbledon or Surrey, yet their national poll rating is barely the same as last time then they'll see their vote fall further in places they're not targeting. They need to be polling 2015 levels in hundreds of seats to make the big gains. I completely agree with you on this seat and to some extent on the wider picture for LDs, but the Conservative v LD vote share is not a zero sum game. The Reform vote is largely a negative to the Conservative vote, especially in seats where the Conservatives were incumbent in 2019 (which I think would be most LD targets). Anywhere the Tories were 5-10 points clear of LDs in 2019 is potentially a LD gain on basis of the Reform vote, even without a more efficient LD vote. Personally I also consider that a LD national vote share roughly in line with 2019 - which polls now seem to be showing - must almost certainly imply a more efficient LD vote not only due to a more focused LD campaign but due to a focused Labour campaign, which will be driving down our vote in the bulk of seats and which if so, must be balanced in a rise in our targets to explain a slight rise in our polling during the campaign. |
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right
Conservative
Posts: 18,780
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Post by right on Jun 21, 2024 10:09:54 GMT
One for fans of dodgy bar charts
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Jun 21, 2024 10:22:08 GMT
One for fans of dodgy bar charts Is that woman a Tory plant? |
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graham
Non-Aligned
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Post by graham on Jun 21, 2024 10:28:51 GMT
One for fans of dodgy bar charts Is that woman a Tory plant? I am not inclined to believe those figures , but frankly I do not blame her at all! |
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right
Conservative
Posts: 18,780
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Post by right on Jun 21, 2024 10:30:35 GMT
One for fans of dodgy bar charts Is that woman a Tory plant? I remember in the mid 1990s having (usually) older Tories saying about the EU that deep sceptics like me should start up our own party and see how many votes we'd get. And when UKIP started getting traction they really, really didn't like that a load of people who should be Tories were stealing their votes. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 21, 2024 11:28:47 GMT
One for fans of dodgy bar charts Then again, what the fuck does she have to lose? She's never getting back in Labour, and maybe if she keeps cock-blocking, they'll do a deal with her idk. As mentioned previously, we actually need a China sceptic like IDS in there who's willing to get personally sanctioned for calling out Beijing. I'd say the same if he was Labour. |
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graham
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,345
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Post by graham on Jun 21, 2024 11:32:40 GMT
I would not rule out the possibility of her being readmitted in the way Luciana Berger has been - and as was Livingstone under Blair. Stafford Cripps was expelled in the late 1930s but eventually returned and became Chancellor in 1947.
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Post by norflondon on Jun 21, 2024 11:49:59 GMT
She's lost the Chingford psephologist votes with that stupid "poll" / bar chart.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,931
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 21, 2024 12:42:40 GMT
Somebody do a proper poll of this seat, PLEASE.
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ricmk
Lib Dem
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Post by ricmk on Jun 22, 2024 20:01:21 GMT
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Post by redtony on Jun 22, 2024 20:21:31 GMT
That must be good news for her
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J.G.Harston
Lib Dem
Leave-voting Brexit-supporting Liberal Democrat
Posts: 14,776
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Post by J.G.Harston on Jun 22, 2024 20:37:38 GMT
"His name is still expected to be on the ballot as his suspension happened after the nominations period closed."
F****wit stupid media. His name *WILL* be on the ballot paper, morons.
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Post by greenhert on Jun 23, 2024 8:43:36 GMT
"His name is still expected to be on the ballot as his suspension happened after the nominations period closed."
F****wit stupid media. His name *WILL* be on the ballot paper, morons.
Unfortunately editing standards have taken a nosedive across the board in the last few years. Even in articles by major media outlets spelling and grammatical errors are not that uncommon - for example, a Sky News article misspelled the names of 2 retiring MPs in the same sentence. |
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Post by Yaffles on Jun 23, 2024 8:50:56 GMT
"His name is still expected to be on the ballot as his suspension happened after the nominations period closed."
F****wit stupid media. His name *WILL* be on the ballot paper, morons.
Unfortunately editing standards have taken a nosedive across the board in the last few years. Even in articles by major media outlets spelling and grammatical errors are not that uncommon - for example, a Sky News article misspelled the names of 2 retiring MPs in the same sentence. Yes I agree I think standards have dropped when it comes to basic journalistic research. I remember being particularly struck when a local hack asked Starmer whether he really thought he could win in Worthing “for the first time since 1997” I mean do they not have access to Wikipedia!!! |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Jun 23, 2024 8:51:47 GMT
Unfortunately editing standards have taken a nosedive across the board in the last few years. Even in articles by major media outlets spelling and grammatical errors are not that uncommon - for example, a Sky News article misspelled the names of 2 retiring MPs in the same sentence. Yes I agree I think standards have dropped when it comes to basic journalistic research. I remember being particularly struck when a local hack asked Starmer whether he really thought he could win in Worthing “for the first time since 1997” I mean do they not have access to Wikipedia!!! Were they thinking of North West Norfolk or Castle Point instead?  |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jun 23, 2024 8:58:32 GMT
Unfortunately editing standards have taken a nosedive across the board in the last few years. Even in articles by major media outlets spelling and grammatical errors are not that uncommon - for example, a Sky News article misspelled the names of 2 retiring MPs in the same sentence. Yes I agree I think standards have dropped when it comes to basic journalistic research. I remember being particularly struck when a local hack asked Starmer whether he really thought he could win in Worthing “for the first time since 1997” I mean do they not have access to Wikipedia!!! I wonder if the 'since 1997' thing is because both the current Worthing seats date back to then - ie they did look on Wikipedia and only saw the history of the seats only going back that far. Equally fuckwitted to whatever other interpretation could be put on their remarks. It reminds me of an article I saw on BBC London news a couple of weeks ago where the reporter was in Epsom and informed us all sagely that it had been safely in Conservative hands 'since 1974'. |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Jun 23, 2024 9:02:30 GMT
Yes I agree I think standards have dropped when it comes to basic journalistic research. I remember being particularly struck when a local hack asked Starmer whether he really thought he could win in Worthing “for the first time since 1997” I mean do they not have access to Wikipedia!!! I wonder if the 'since 1997' thing is because both the current Worthing seats date back to then - ie they did look on Wikipedia and only saw the history of the seats only going back that far. Equally fuckwitted to whatever other interpretation could be put on their remarks. It reminds me of an article I saw on BBC London news a couple of weeks ago where the reporter was in Epsom and informed us all sagely that it had been safely in Conservative hands 'since 1974'. It's so annoying. Like when the BBC talked about the Tories gaining 'Brighton Hove' in 2010. |
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