graham
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Post by graham on Jun 14, 2024 18:24:14 GMT
I am not persuaded that at a General Election voters are more or less likely to support or turnout for a candidate because they have been canvassed. Voter contact is much more important for local elections where turnout is much lower.
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batman
Labour
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Post by batman on Jun 14, 2024 20:28:53 GMT
I've seen it on X, the Owen Jones (*gulp*) argument that you can vote for smaller parties because Labour are winning anyway. As Neil Kinnock said in 1992, "We're all right" (except it's virtually certain this time). I’ve read a theory that he actually said “Well all right”, which would be less (but only slightly less) arrogant or triumphalist. sounded like "we're all right!" to me. |
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right
Conservative
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Post by right on Jun 14, 2024 20:49:22 GMT
That Jezza's campaign manager is putting out urgent tweets asking for assistance is a clue that zero activists will be making their way here from the scenic delights of Islington. If that stops a week before the the election then it could be a different story I got the impression from 2019 that she was quite good at getting out of area activists even when Labour HQ wanted them elsewhere |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 14, 2024 23:02:52 GMT
I’ve read a theory that he actually said “Well all right”, which would be less (but only slightly less) arrogant or triumphalist. sounded like "we're all right!" to me. Indeed. Mandela effect explains other interpretations. |
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Post by redtony on Jun 16, 2024 20:07:37 GMT
they just wanted to get rid of IDS as they do now
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 17, 2024 5:08:26 GMT
What would a Faiza Shaheen win look like? It's exceedingly unlikely, but probably like this:
SHAHEEN 22%
CON 22%
LAB 20%
REF 14%
GRN 12%
LD 10%
Majority: 56 anyone?
We would see Shaheen winning 90% of the Muslim vote, and peeling off more Corbynite Labour voters in other denographics. Reform would nibble away at IDS's position in Chingford Green and Monkhams, with the more WWC element plumping for Farage's party. The Greens would surge among the more yummy mummy aspect of the seat around Highams Park.
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right
Conservative
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Post by right on Jun 17, 2024 5:23:28 GMT
What would a Faiza Shaheen win look like? It's exceedingly unlikely, but probably like this: SHAHEEN 22% CON 22% LAB 20% REF 14% GRN 12% LD 10% Majority: 56 anyone? We would see Shaheen winning 90% of the Muslim vote, and peeling off more Corbynite Labour voters in other denographics. Reform would nibble away at IDS's position in Chingford Green and Monkhams, with the more WWC element plumping for Farage's party. The Greens would surge among the more yummy mummy aspect of the seat around Highams Park. As you say exceedingly unlikely. But for any left of Labour candidate to prevail (and this must be true almost anywhere) then the left of Labour vote must consolidate, so even the Greens winning their deposit is probably fatal for her already improbable win. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 17, 2024 5:24:36 GMT
What would a Faiza Shaheen win look like? It's exceedingly unlikely, but probably like this: SHAHEEN 22% CON 22% LAB 20% REF 14% GRN 12% LD 10% Majority: 56 anyone? We would see Shaheen winning 90% of the Muslim vote, and peeling off more Corbynite Labour voters in other denographics. Reform would nibble away at IDS's position in Chingford Green and Monkhams, with the more WWC element plumping for Farage's party. The Greens would surge among the more yummy mummy aspect of the seat around Highams Park. As you say exceedingly unlikely. But for any left of Labour candidate to prevail (and this must be true almost anywhere) then the left of Labour vote must consolidate, so even the Greens winning their deposit is probably fatal for her already improbable win. I think she would need two things to happen 1) Jeremy Corbyn endorses her and campaigns for her; 2) imams whip up support for her and all the mosques back her. |
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Post by johnloony on Jun 17, 2024 9:52:48 GMT
What would a Faiza Shaheen win look like? It's exceedingly unlikely, but probably like this: SHAHEEN 22% CON 22% LAB 20% REF 14% GRN 12% LD 10% Majority: 56 anyone? We would see Shaheen winning 90% of the Muslim vote, and peeling off more Corbynite Labour voters in other denographics. Reform would nibble away at IDS's position in Chingford Green and Monkhams, with the more WWC element plumping for Farage's party. The Greens would surge among the more yummy mummy aspect of the seat around Highams Park. The bird has eaten the snail |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 17, 2024 11:16:22 GMT
If Jeremy Corbyn is going to endorse any of Faiza Shaheen, Andrew Feinstein or Emma Dent Coad, then he's taking his sweet time.
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batman
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Post by batman on Jun 17, 2024 11:28:57 GMT
Corbyn is actually a very selfish person & this does not surprise me. Although he can deny it as much as he likes he rather enjoys his cult status and at times played along with it as leader. Maybe if I were the subject of an adoring cult I'd be the same, who knows.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 17, 2024 11:29:47 GMT
Corbyn is actually a very selfish person & this does not surprise me. Although he can deny it as much as he likes he rather enjoys his cult status and at times played along with it as leader. Maybe if I were the subject of an adoring cult I'd be the same, who knows. Years of "Oh, Jeremy Corbyn" to the tune of Seven Nation Army by the White Stripes are getting to him methinks. |
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Adam
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Post by Adam on Jun 17, 2024 18:08:03 GMT
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graham
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Post by graham on Jun 17, 2024 18:24:16 GMT
Todays Redfield & Wilton's regional breakdown puts the Con to Lab swing at just 3% in London- also only 4% in Wales. Were that to prove accurate , IDS could yet be saved by Shaheen's candidacy.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 17, 2024 18:31:16 GMT
Todays Redfield & Wilton's regional breakdown puts the Con to Lab swing at just 3% - also only 4% in Wales. Were that to prove accurate , IDS could yet be saved by Shaheen's candidacy. A 3% swing sees Labour win by three a half points here, but even if Faiza Shaheen keeps her deposit, it's easy to see how she saves Sir Iain Duncan Smith's bacon. |
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batman
Labour
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Post by batman on Jun 17, 2024 18:55:59 GMT
I think you're going to find that, if the swing is that low in London, it's going to be disportionately low in safe Labour seats and higher in Tory ones. I would seriously doubt for example that Hendon or Chipping Barnet will see swings anything like that low.
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
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Post by cogload on Jun 17, 2024 19:07:36 GMT
Lab gain by 5k at least.
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Post by Peter Wilkinson on Jun 17, 2024 20:54:04 GMT
It just might hit double figures, I suppose. |
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Post by greenhert on Jun 17, 2024 20:56:02 GMT
Todays Redfield & Wilton's regional breakdown puts the Con to Lab swing at just 3% - also only 4% in Wales. Were that to prove accurate , IDS could yet be saved by Shaheen's candidacy. A 3% swing sees Labour win by three a half points here, but even if Faiza Shaheen keeps her deposit, it's easy to see how she saves Sir Iain Duncan Smith's bacon. Do not forget that both Reform UK and the Liberal Democrats will eat significantly into the Conservative vote here. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jun 17, 2024 20:56:11 GMT
There's a bit of a flaw in his plan here..
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