|
|
Post by Pete Whitehead on Jun 13, 2024 18:24:23 GMT
Labour came close in 2017 when it was totally unexpected (and presumably not targeted) - it then became a target and saw a continued Labour trend (reflecting partly a much more active campaign but also continued demographic change). I don't think she will get even close to 10% (a saved deposit would be a good result) but even if then, it only splits the Labour vote enough to let the Conservatives hold if the relative strengths of the two parties has not significantly shifted since 2019. Most of the opinion polls I've seen lately indicate that they have. But there has been some polling evidence to suggest that the pro-Labour swing in London could be well below the national average - reflecting the fact that much of the swing in Labour's direction has already happened there in 2017 and 2019. Yes I think it will be, but lower swing ≠ no swing. National polls point (conservatively) to a swing of about 15% from Conservative to Labour - lets say that for various reasons it is only 10% in London. That still leave Labour a very comfortable cushion here. But also, there is London and London. I fully expect the swing to be below the national average in seats like the Cities, Chelsea & Fulham, Putney, where as you say much of the swing has already occured and where the voters are relatively inelastic,. And of course the swing will be low in the swathe of seats in East and South London where the Conservatives have a derisory vote to start with. But a seat like this which is undergoing rapid demographic change is a different matter. That isn't going to unwind. You only have to look at Ilford North to see how that plays out. |
|
graham
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,345
|
Post by graham on Jun 13, 2024 18:33:18 GMT
But there has been some polling evidence to suggest that the pro-Labour swing in London could be well below the national average - reflecting the fact that much of the swing in Labour's direction has already happened there in 2017 and 2019. Yes I think it will be, but lower swing ≠ no swing. National polls point (conservatively) to a swing of about 15% from Conservative to Labour - lets say that for various reasons it is only 10% in London. That still leave Labour a very comfortable cushion here. But also, there is London and London. I fully expect the swing to be below the national average in seats like the Cities, Chelsea & Fulham, Putney, where as you say much of the swing has already occured and where the voters are relatively inelastic,. And of course the swing will be low in the swathe of seats in East and South London where the Conservatives have a derisory vote to start with. But a seat like this which is undergoing rapid demographic change is a different matter. That isn't going to unwind. You only have to look at Ilford North to see how that plays out. I am not in London, but you seem to be saying this seat is today very different even compared with 2010 - never mind when Norman Tebbit represented the former Chingford seat. To what extent might the demographic changes be bringing in voters likely to be sympathetic to Shaheen?
|
|
graham
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,345
|
Post by graham on Jun 13, 2024 18:35:41 GMT
Corbyn will be too busy trying to save his own seat to spare time campaigning in others. Let alone be able to redirect activists elsewhere. That depends on how confident he is. If he expects a 10,000 majority he might spare a few resources. |
|
|
|
Post by John Chanin on Jun 13, 2024 18:40:04 GMT
I really don't understand this ramping for Shaheen. The majority of voters will have no idea who she is, and won't care. I will be very surprised if she saves her deposit.
|
|
graham
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,345
|
Post by graham on Jun 13, 2024 18:46:26 GMT
I really don't understand this ramping for Shaheen. The majority of voters will have no idea who she is, and won't care. I will be very surprised if she saves her deposit. She will have some name recognition from having come close to winning in 2019. |
|
|
|
Post by John Chanin on Jun 13, 2024 18:51:01 GMT
I really don't understand this ramping for Shaheen. The majority of voters will have no idea who she is, and won't care. I will be very surprised if she saves her deposit. She will have some name recognition from having come close to winning in 2019. But very few people will recognize the name of the losing candidate 5 years ago. It's totally unrealistic. For most normal voters she will just be another unknown independent. |
|
graham
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,345
|
Post by graham on Jun 13, 2024 19:36:00 GMT
She will have some name recognition from having come close to winning in 2019. But very few people will recognize the name of the losing candidate 5 years ago. It's totally unrealistic. For most normal voters she will just be another unknown independent. But she is likely to have received significant local press coverage since being reselected as the PPC. |
|
|
|
Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jun 13, 2024 19:57:07 GMT
And what an heroic achievement for socialism that would be. But many would feel that the interests of justice would have been well served by defeating Starmer's henchmen who would effectively own the defeat. When Labour romp home to a massive majority, not winning Chingford will be utterly irrelevant. |
|
andrea
Non-Aligned
Posts: 7,773
|
Post by andrea on Jun 13, 2024 20:09:19 GMT
Take all those points about Corbyn, multiply them by 100 and apply to Shaheen.
|
|
john07
Labour & Co-operative
Posts: 15,794 
|
Post by john07 on Jun 13, 2024 21:30:51 GMT
But very few people will recognize the name of the losing candidate 5 years ago. It's totally unrealistic. For most normal voters she will just be another unknown independent. But she is likely to have received significant local press coverage since being reselected as the PPC. I doubt of local press coverage will have a meaningful impact. A sitting MP, particularly one who has been there for 40 years plus, will have a distinct advantage. However a defeated candidate standing again will have minimal edge especially nearly five years after. I haven't a clue who the defeated candidates were in Edinburgh South in 2019. |
|
|
|
Post by batman on Jun 13, 2024 21:46:30 GMT
I really don't understand this ramping for Shaheen. The majority of voters will have no idea who she is, and won't care. I will be very surprised if she saves her deposit. John is quite simply correct here, as has Pete been too in this thread. The reason of course is she is good at ramping herself. In her mind she was the only reason that Labour came close. In reality, although she seems to have fought a pretty good campaign in 2019, it was almost entirely a vote for the Labour Party not for her personally. She is fighting quite hard but she doesn't have 40+ years of incumbency like Jeremy Corbyn, let alone his celebrity status - I mean, almost everyone knows who Jeremy Corbyn is, love him, loathe him or anything in between. I think she could possibly save her deposit, but the idea that she gets enough votes to help Duncan Smith get re-elected in this election, where the polls are so appalling for the Tories, is surely ridiculous. Yes she will get a leaflet out & there will be a certain degree of local publicity for her, but Labour will be working very hard to gain this seat and I don't see them having really undue difficulty in achieving that. |
|
|
|
Post by batman on Jun 13, 2024 21:49:28 GMT
it's great how graham simultaneously thinks that the tide for Labour is so strong that we win Wimbledon, but that it's weak enough for us to fail to win Chingford & Woodford Green. Having visited some of the most Labour-friendly parts of Wimbledon & seen so many Lib Dem posters & so few Labour ones even there I am convinced that we will not be winning Wimbledon, although second place is a strong possibility.
|
|
graham
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,345
|
Post by graham on Jun 13, 2024 22:43:37 GMT
Posters are far from being a good guide. Tories - in particular - are reluctant to display them.
|
|
|
|
Post by batman on Jun 13, 2024 23:11:19 GMT
I agree in general terms, but I have no evidence that Labour are doing anything like the amount of work needed to counteract the LDs' virtual flooding of the constituency. They know they are home & hosed in neighbouring Kingston & Surbiton and Richmond Park & they are out in force. Whereas Labour's campaign is purely based on members of Wimbledon CLP itself and they are pretty split; left-wingers are not that well-disposed towards Elly Stringer.
|
|
graham
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,345
|
Post by graham on Jun 14, 2024 0:14:34 GMT
I agree in general terms, but I have no evidence that Labour are doing anything like the amount of work needed to counteract the LDs' virtual flooding of the constituency. They know they are home & hosed in neighbouring Kingston & Surbiton and Richmond Park & they are out in force. Whereas Labour's campaign is purely based on members of Wimbledon CLP itself and they are pretty split; left-wingers are not that well-disposed towards Elly Stringer. I suspect that most of those who vote LD will have done so at the local elections and that the higher turnout at a General Election will be non- LDs - both Labour and Tory. |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jun 14, 2024 6:00:57 GMT
Faiza losing her deposit seems unlikely.
She isn't Chris bloody Williamson, FFS. Why would she lose her deposit? Because people don't want her to split the opposition to Labour? I'm sorry, that's not enough of a reason. Many don't care if it splits the opposition in this seat because Labour is winning a landslide and doesn't need to win this seat - you could say the same about seats like Islington North, Bristol Central, Brighton Pavilion, Bradford West, Rochdale et al.
I've seen it on X, the Owen Jones (*gulp*) argument that you can vote for smaller parties because Labour are winning anyway. As Neil Kinnock said in 1992, "We're all right" (except it's virtually certain this time).
Labour should already get 1997 again, and the questions are: 1) Will Reform outpoll the Tories? 2) Which smaller parties do you want to hold Starmer to account? That's quite attractive, IMO.
|
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,940
|
Post by The Bishop on Jun 14, 2024 12:05:13 GMT
Not being Chris Williamson is a low bar, and I agree she is a much better person than him even if a tad too narcissistic.
She may save her deposit, but perhaps not that much more.
|
|
cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 9,142
|
Post by cogload on Jun 14, 2024 14:33:40 GMT
That Jezza's campaign manager is putting out urgent tweets asking for assistance is a clue that zero activists will be making their way here from the scenic delights of Islington.
|
|
|
|
Post by johnloony on Jun 14, 2024 15:58:47 GMT
I've seen it on X, the Owen Jones (*gulp*) argument that you can vote for smaller parties because Labour are winning anyway. As Neil Kinnock said in 1992, "We're all right" (except it's virtually certain this time). I’ve read a theory that he actually said “Well all right”, which would be less (but only slightly less) arrogant or triumphalist. |
|
|
|
Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jun 14, 2024 16:26:19 GMT
That Jezza's campaign manager is putting out urgent tweets asking for assistance is a clue that zero activists will be making their way here from the scenic delights of Islington. Jezza fans are about to find out just how much of his vote is personal and how much is Labour. Some of these chancers are about to find out the same, but unlike Corbyn, they've got neither the track record nor the respect (grudging or otherwise). |
|
