Chingford and Woodford Green

[Deleted]

Let's look at the wards which are entirely within this constituency.

IMO, IDS will still be ahead in Chingford Green, Endlebury, and possibly Larkswood. Hatch Lane & Highams Park North and Valley Wards likely decide the winner. Highams Park is more urban, competitive and probably where the bulk of Faiza Shaheen voters will be.

Over to the Redbridge wards, Bridge and Churchfields were ultra-competitive in 2022, with Labour pulling ahead. I suspect Labour carries those wards in the GE. IDS will still carry Monkhams.

Please read this write-up if you haven't. It's excellent and has a lot of census detail.

[The Bishop]

Tories still getting 38-40% at this election looks.....generous.

[batman]

I can easily enough see this one swinging by less than the national average for Labour. I can see Shaheen's candidacy knocking a bit more off the Labour total. But it's asking a helluva lot for IDS to defy the demographic change that has undoubtedly been seen in this constituency to the extent needed for him to hold it. I think he's a bit of an anachronism for the majority of this seat, though he probably still does well in Chingford Green & Endlebury. Even there, Labour is no longer negligible.

[Deleted]

Jun 9, 2024 9:39:37 GMT batman said:

I can easily enough see this one swinging by less than the national average for Labour. I can see Shaheen's candidacy knocking a bit more off the Labour total. But it's asking a helluva lot for IDS to defy the demographic change that has undoubtedly been seen in this constituency to the extent needed for him to hold it. I think he's a bit of an anachronism for the majority of this seat, though he probably still does well in Chingford Green & Endlebury. Even there, Labour is no longer negligible.

Absolutely, but the presence of Faiza Shaheen's most likely voters is a lot of the demographic change in this constituency. 

[Deleted]

In general I expect the Independents, with the possible exception of Jeremy Corbyn, to have virtually no cut through with the c. 30-40% of the electorate who only vote in general elections. Of the remainder more engaged voters, lots will regard candidacies like this as a silly stunt; more will have some sympathy but vote for their normal party anyway. I would expect only a few to actually be tempted to vote for Shaheen and others, and the lack of access to previous canvassing data and the lack of party funds or activists to get the message out will make it difficult to find, reach and persuade those voters. It is also far from certain that they will pull all or most of their support from one party. The national profile and previous candidacies make it more likely in this case, but independents also pull in generic anti-establishment voters who would otherwise vote Tory, Reform, Green, or A.N. Other weirdo. It's very easy to overestimate the support that independents have with certain groups, and I would make it 50:50 at best on Shaheen keeping her deposit.

[The Bishop]

She does have a lot of adoring online fans, most of whom will not be able to actually vote for her however.

[kevinf]

Jun 9, 2024 9:55:13 GMT @europeanlefty said:

In general I expect the Independents, with the possible exception of Jeremy Corbyn, to have virtually no cut through with the c. 30-40% of the electorate who only vote in general elections. Of the remainder more engaged voters, lots will regard candidacies like this as a silly stunt; more will have some sympathy but vote for their normal party anyway. I would expect only a few to actually be tempted to vote for Shaheen and others, and the lack of access to previous canvassing data and the lack of party funds or activists to get the message out will make it difficult to find, reach and persuade those voters. It is also far from certain that they will pull all or most of their support from one party. The national profile and previous candidacies make it more likely in this case, but independents also pull in generic anti-establishment voters who would otherwise vote Tory, Reform, Green, or A.N. Other weirdo. It's very easy to overestimate the support that independents have with certain groups, and I would make it 50:50 at best on Shaheen keeping her deposit.

I think that’s a pretty accurate assessment

[Devil Wincarnate]

Jun 9, 2024 9:55:13 GMT @europeanlefty said:

In general I expect the Independents, with the possible exception of Jeremy Corbyn, to have virtually no cut through with the c. 30-40% of the electorate who only vote in general elections. Of the remainder more engaged voters, lots will regard candidacies like this as a silly stunt; more will have some sympathy but vote for their normal party anyway. I would expect only a few to actually be tempted to vote for Shaheen and others, and the lack of access to previous canvassing data and the lack of party funds or activists to get the message out will make it difficult to find, reach and persuade those voters. It is also far from certain that they will pull all or most of their support from one party. The national profile and previous candidacies make it more likely in this case, but independents also pull in generic anti-establishment voters who would otherwise vote Tory, Reform, Green, or A.N. Other weirdo. It's very easy to overestimate the support that independents have with certain groups, and I would make it 50:50 at best on Shaheen keeping her deposit.

Not to mention that "well-known local figure" and "popular local figure" are not necessarily the same. Plenty of independents are local bores that are notorious rather than popular.

[edgbaston]

Jun 9, 2024 9:55:13 GMT @europeanlefty said:

In general I expect the Independents, with the possible exception of Jeremy Corbyn, to have virtually no cut through with the c. 30-40% of the electorate who only vote in general elections. Of the remainder more engaged voters, lots will regard candidacies like this as a silly stunt; more will have some sympathy but vote for their normal party anyway. I would expect only a few to actually be tempted to vote for Shaheen and others, and the lack of access to previous canvassing data and the lack of party funds or activists to get the message out will make it difficult to find, reach and persuade those voters. It is also far from certain that they will pull all or most of their support from one party. The national profile and previous candidacies make it more likely in this case, but independents also pull in generic anti-establishment voters who would otherwise vote Tory, Reform, Green, or A.N. Other weirdo. It's very easy to overestimate the support that independents have with certain groups, and I would make it 50:50 at best on Shaheen keeping her deposit.

She's been campaigning for over 5 years so I would disagree slightly and say she will be able to keep her deposit relatively easily, in a 'normal' close year she would probably take enough to cost Labour the seat, but IDS will be loosing so much support in every direction that it probably won't matter. Labour could get 35% of the vote and still win in theory.

[graham]

I suspect that the pro-Labour swing in London will be below the national average - partly because much of it has already happened there in 2017 - and even 2019 in some seats.

[Sg1]

Jun 9, 2024 13:43:49 GMT graham said:

I suspect that the pro-Labour swing in London will be below the national average - partly because much of it has already happened there in 2017 - and even 2019 in some seats.

Also because many of the inner city seats already had low Conservative votes. They don't have 20% of the vote to drop there and could well hold two thirds of their percentage of vote in these seats.

[norflondon]

Shaheen needs just c. 2,500 to save deposit. Those expecting her to do badly are forgetting her exposure & campaigning in this seat, national TV coverage. You're also underestimating the anger of a significant amounts of voters, angered by the actions of Labour's centre & RW, the exagerrations, the lies, the broken pledges, campaigning against the party, the undemocratic ditching of long standing procedures on candidate selection, just so they can get their mates in.

She will be getting her monkey back.

[Deleted]

AdminSTB can we get a poll on this thread and others, please? Thanks.

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

Jun 9, 2024 16:22:34 GMT @weld said:

AdminSTB can we get a poll on this thread and others, please? Thanks.

stb12

[redtony]

yes all of the ex Labour independents except Corbyn will do fairly well but will not get more than 4000 votes and they may dent labours vote but wont stop Labour winning the seat
Still have not seen that level of vote since the 1940s with communist standing in Londons East End and the ILP in Glasgow

[stb12]

Jun 9, 2024 16:54:47 GMT Defenestrated Fipplebox said:

Jun 9, 2024 16:22:34 GMT @weld said:

AdminSTB can we get a poll on this thread and others, please? Thanks.

stb12

Done

Everyone feel free to tag asking for polls in these threads makes life a bit simpler, especially since the nature of those elections indicates several ‘safe’ seats could be in play

[Deleted]

50 members of Chingford & Woodford Green Constituency Labour Party have resigned, as per the BBC.

[redtony]

how does anyone know how many have resigned since she was stopped from being Labours candidate

[Deleted]

The sound you can hear is the quiet man popping the champagne.

[kevinf]

Jun 11, 2024 21:13:30 GMT redtony said:

how does anyone know how many have resigned since she was stopped from being Labours candidate

Anyone with access to the membership list would know - constituency officers for instance.