batman
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Post by batman on Aug 8, 2024 17:06:11 GMT
you may well be right about all that, but for my part I feel it's too early for 2026 predictions
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Post by sanders on Aug 8, 2024 17:38:26 GMT
I am making the assumption either Kemi Badenoch or Priti Patel become Tory leader who will not help the Tories in London-shire. I believe they will take Enfield and Croydon but lose RBKC to NOC. I also think Labour will win a big victory in Westminster and the Lib Dems will take 3/3 in Marylebone. I have Labour sweeping Chelsea Riverside. I think with Khan and Starmer in prominent roles, Labor ought to hold up better in the 'West Central' boroughs than elsewhere.
The same cannot be said for Hackney where I see 10 Greens elected in 2026. I also see at least six Greens in Islington, along with the Lib Dems sweeping St Mary and St James's, at the very least.
Camden - narrow Labour hold with the Lib Dems sweeping West Hampstead, Fortune Green, and Hampstead Town and the Greens taking 3/3 in Highgate. I think the Tories might expand their holdings in Camden but I think the Lib Dems will overtake them in Primrose Hill, South Hampstead and maybe, just maybe, Frognal.
Haringey will stay Labour, I would say, with a Lib Dem rebounding taking seats in Harringay and Stroud Green and the Greens breaking through in St Ann's. I think the Lib Dems will sweep Crouch End et al in the west of the seat like they did in 2002, 2006, 2010 and 2018. Highgate will be safe enough for them. Alexandra will go back to the LDs I would say.
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Post by finsobruce on Aug 8, 2024 18:11:09 GMT
I am making the assumption either Kemi Badenoch or Priti Patel become Tory leader who will not help the Tories in London-shire. I believe they will take Enfield and Croydon but lose RBKC to NOC. I also think Labour will win a big victory in Westminster and the Lib Dems will take 3/3 in Marylebone. I have Labour sweeping Chelsea Riverside. I think with Khan and Starmer in prominent roles, Labor ought to hold up better in the 'West Central' boroughs than elsewhere. The same cannot be said for Hackney where I see 10 Greens elected in 2026. I also see at least six Greens in Islington, along with the Lib Dems sweeping St Mary and St James's, at the very least. Camden - narrow Labour hold with the Lib Dems sweeping West Hampstead, Fortune Green, and Hampstead Town and the Greens taking 3/3 in Highgate. I think the Tories might expand their holdings in Camden but I think the Lib Dems will overtake them in Primrose Hill, South Hampstead and maybe, just maybe, Frognal. Haringey will stay Labour, I would say, with a Lib Dem rebounding taking seats in Harringay and Stroud Green and the Greens breaking through in St Ann's. I think the Lib Dems will sweep Crouch End et al in the west of the seat like they did in 2002, 2006, 2010 and 2018. Highgate will be safe enough for them. Alexandra will go back to the LDs I would say. Hackney will almost certainly be the Greens best borough, but there are still lots of parts where their writ doesn't run.
Haringey will undoubtedly stay Labour, and the Greens would certainly hope for a breakthrough after coming so close last time. Any Lib Dem revival may well be influenced by Green tactics though as they certainly take votes from them as well as Labour. Harringay for instance is a ward where the Greens could really be the main challengers to Labour. They have to choose between their ruthless targetting of last time out and standing more candidates in wards where they could reasonably expect to make good progress.
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Post by sanders on Aug 9, 2024 4:06:25 GMT
I am making the assumption either Kemi Badenoch or Priti Patel become Tory leader who will not help the Tories in London-shire. I believe they will take Enfield and Croydon but lose RBKC to NOC. I also think Labour will win a big victory in Westminster and the Lib Dems will take 3/3 in Marylebone. I have Labour sweeping Chelsea Riverside. I think with Khan and Starmer in prominent roles, Labor ought to hold up better in the 'West Central' boroughs than elsewhere. The same cannot be said for Hackney where I see 10 Greens elected in 2026. I also see at least six Greens in Islington, along with the Lib Dems sweeping St Mary and St James's, at the very least. Camden - narrow Labour hold with the Lib Dems sweeping West Hampstead, Fortune Green, and Hampstead Town and the Greens taking 3/3 in Highgate. I think the Tories might expand their holdings in Camden but I think the Lib Dems will overtake them in Primrose Hill, South Hampstead and maybe, just maybe, Frognal. Haringey will stay Labour, I would say, with a Lib Dem rebounding taking seats in Harringay and Stroud Green and the Greens breaking through in St Ann's. I think the Lib Dems will sweep Crouch End et al in the west of the seat like they did in 2002, 2006, 2010 and 2018. Highgate will be safe enough for them. Alexandra will go back to the LDs I would say. Hackney will almost certainly be the Greens best borough, but there are still lots of parts where their writ doesn't run.
Haringey will undoubtedly stay Labour, and the Greens would certainly hope for a breakthrough after coming so close last time. Any Lib Dem revival may well be influenced by Green tactics though as they certainly take votes from them as well as Labour. Harringay for instance is a ward where the Greens could really be the main challengers to Labour. They have to choose between their ruthless targetting of last time out and standing more candidates in wards where they could reasonably expect to make good progress.
More detailed predictions for selected boroughs: CITY OF LONDON: LAB gain from IND: Aldersgate x2; Castle Baynard, Cripplegate; Farringdon Within, Farringdon Without; Portsoken. Final result: IND 72 (-6), LAB 12 (+7); Temple & Farringdon Together 9 (-1); Castle Baynard Independents 7 (nc). KENSINGTON AND CHELSEA: LAB gain from CON - Chelsea Riverside x3; Holland; Norland x2, Pembridge; LD gain from CON - Earls Court; Pembridge x1; Redcliffe. Final result: CON 25 (-10); LAB 20 (+7); LD 5 (+3). NOC.WESTMINSTER: LAB gain from CON - Abbey Road x2; Lancaster Gate; Little Venice x2; Pimlico North x3; Regents Park x2; St James's x3; Vincent Square x2; LD gain from CON - Marylebone x3. Final result: LAB 46 (+15); CON 5 (-18); LD 3 (+3). CAMDEN: LD gain from LAB - Fortune Green x2; Hampstead Town (confirming a by-election gain); Primrose Hill x3; South Hampstead x3; West Hampstead x3; LD gain from CON - Frognal x2; Hampstead Town; GRN gain from LAB - Highgate x2; IND gain from LAB - Regents Park (x3); St Pancras & Somers Town (x3). Final result: LAB 27 (-20); LD 19 (+15); IND 6 (+6); GRN 3 (+2); CON 0 (-3). NOC.HACKNEY: CON gain from LAB - Cazenove x3 (conforming one by-election gain); GRN gain from LAB - Clissold x3; Dalston, De Beauvoir x2; Hackney Downs x2; Hoxton East & Shoreditch x2; Hoxton West; Lea Bridge; London Fields; Shacklewell; Stoke Newington x3, Victoria x2. Final result: LAB 28 (-22); GRN 21 (+19); CON 8 (+3). NOC.
EALING: LD gain from LAB - Ealing Common. GRN gain from LAB - Hanwell Broadway x3; CON gain from LAB - North Acton x2; North Hanwell; Northfield x3; Pitshanger x3. Southall West; Walpole x3. LD gain from CON - Hanger Hill x2. Final result: LAB 40 (-19); CON 18 (+13), LD 9 (+3); GRN 3 (+3). ENFIELD: CON gain from LAB: Bowes; Highfield x2; New Southgate; Palmers Green x2; Southbury x2. Final result CON 32 (+7). LAB 31 (-7). CON gain. HARINGEY: LD gain from LAB - Alexandra Park x2; Crouch End x2; Fortis Green; Harringay x3; Muswell Hill x2; Stroud Green x3; GRN gain from LAB - St Ann's x3. Final result: LAB 34 (-16); LD 20 (+13); GRN 3 (+3). HARROW: CON gain from LAB - Edgware; Greenhill x3; Harrow on the Hill x2; Headstone x3; Marlborough x2; Rayners Lane. Final result: CON 44 (+13); LAB 11 (-13). ISLINGTON: GRN gain from LAB - Barnsbury; Canonbury x2; Clerkenwell x2; Tufnell Park x2; LD gain from LAB - St Mary & St James's x3 St Peter's & Canalside; IND gain from LAB - Finsbury Park x3; Hillrise (conforming a by-election gain); Tollington x3. CON gain from LAB - St Peter's & Canalside. Final result: LAB 29 (-19); GRN 10 (+7); IND 7 (+7); LD 4 (+4); CON 1 (+1). WANDSWORTH - LAB gain from CON - Balham x2; East Putney x2; Lavender x2; Nine Elms x2; St Mary's; Thamesfield; Wandsworth Common x2; Wandsworth Town; West Hill; West Putney. Final result - LAB 50 (+15); CON 7 (-15); IND 1 (nc). MERTON: LD gain from LAB - Abbey, Wandle; LD gain from CON - Cannon Hill x2, Hillside; Village x3; GRN gain from LAB - Colliers Wood; CON gain from LAB - Lower Morden x2. Final result: LAB 26 (-5) LD 25 (+8); LAB CON 3 (-4); MPR 2 (nc); GRN 1 (+1). NOC.SOUTHWARK: GRN gain from LAB - Chaucer, Dulwich Hill, Nunhead & Queen's Road x2; LD gain from LAB - Dulwich Village x2, London Bridge & West Bermondsey x3, Rotherhithe x2, South Bermondsey x2. Final result: LAB 39 (-13); LD 20 (+9); GRN 4 (+4). LAMBETH: LD gain from LAB - Clapham Common & Abbeville; Streatham Wells, Streatham St Leonard's, Vauxhall, Waterloo & South Bank x2; CON gain from LAB - Clapham Town x2; GRN gain from LAB - Gipsy Hill x2; Herne Hill & Loughborough Junction x2; Streatham Common & Vale. Final result: LAB 45 (-13); LD 9 (+6); GRN 7 (+5); CON 2 (+2). GREENWICH: GRN gain from LAB - East Greenwich x3; Greenwich Park x2; Greenwich Peninsula, CON gain from LAB - Eltham Park & Progress x2: Eltham Town & Avery Hill x2; Nottingham, Coldharbour & New Eltham. Final result: LAB 41 (-11); CON 8 (+5), GRN 6 (+6). LEWISHAM: LD gain from LAB - Blackheath x3, Catford South x2, Lee Green x3; GRN gain from LAB - Brockley; Crofton Park; Forest Hill, Ladywell x3; CON gain from LAB - Grove Park. Final result: LAB - 39 (-15), LD 8 (+8); GRN 6 (+6); CON 1 (+1). NEWHAM: GRN gain from LAB - Beckton x2, Royal Victoria x2; IND gain from LAB - Plashet; Plaistow North. Final result: LAB 58 (-6); GRN 6 (+4); IND 2 (+2). BRENT: LD gain from LAB: Alperton, Sudbury; CON gain from LAB - Brondesbury Park; Kingsbury; Northwick Park; Preston, Queensbury, Welsh Harp x2, Wembley Hill x3. Final result: LAB 37 (-12); CON 15 (+10); LD 5 (+2). CROYDON: CON gain from LAB - Addiscombe East; Addiscombe West x3; New Addington North; Norbury & Pollards Hill; Norbury Park; Waddon x2. LD gain from CON - Coulsdon Town; Old Coulsdon. Purley Oaks & Riddlesdown; LD gain from LAB - Crystal Palace & Upper Norwood x2; GRN gain from LAB - Fairfield. Final result - CON 41 (+8); LAB 21 (-13); LD 5 (+4); GRN 3 (+1). CON gain.
SUTTON: GRN gain from LD - Carshalton Central; CON gain from LD - Carshalton South & Clockhouse; South Beddington & Roundshaw x2; Stonecot x2; Sutton North x2; Sutton South x3; Sutton West & East Cheam x3; The Wrythe x3; Wallington North x3; Wallington South; CON gain from LAB - St Helier West; LAB gain from LD - St Helier East x2; Sutton Central x3. Final result: CON 41 (+21); LAB 8 (+5); IND 3 (nc); LD 2 (-27); GRN 1 (+1). CON gain. Sutton Lib Dems have their Kim Campbell moment.
Bromley: LD gain from CON - Beckenham Town & Copers Cope; Bromley Common & Holwood; Chelsfield x2; Farnborough & Crofton; Orpington x2; Petts Wood & Knoll; Shortlands & Park Langley. CON gain from LAB - St Paul's Cray x2. Final result: CON 29 (-7); LD 14 (+9), LAB 10 (-2); Chislehurst Matters 3 (nc); IND 2 (nc). NOC. |
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batman
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Post by batman on Aug 9, 2024 5:21:44 GMT
Quite apart from the thread going off topic, I hardly know where to start with some of those. I will just make two confident predictions; Labour will not be gaining Norland in K&C, and the Tories will not be gaining North Acton.
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Post by sanders on Aug 9, 2024 5:31:47 GMT
Quite apart from the thread going off topic, I hardly know where to start with some of those. I will just make two confident predictions; Labour will not be gaining Norland in K&C, and the Tories will not be gaining North Acton. The other route to NOC is Labour sweeping Holland Park. They may have the Beckhams’ votes. It’s winnable for Labour I think. Lots of the big fuck off houses are empty. |
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batman
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Post by batman on Aug 9, 2024 7:13:02 GMT
Much of the Labour vote in Holland ward I think comes from multi-occupancy houses just east of Olympia station. A Labour win is significantly likelier in Holland than in Norland which is mostly still very posh, on its current boundaries. The council tower blocks which are so close to Holland Park Avenue are in Hammersmith & Fulham, in Shepherds Bush Green ward, not in Norland. And Grenfell's occupied neighbouring blocks are in Notting Dale.
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Post by londonseal80 on Aug 9, 2024 7:40:07 GMT
Quite apart from the thread going off topic, I hardly know where to start with some of those. I will just make two confident predictions; Labour will not be gaining Norland in K&C, and the Tories will not be gaining North Acton. I don’t think Labour will gaining seats in Sutton either. Hackbridge might hold but that’s it. Or the Greens getting 21 in Hackney. I say 8 at best. |
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Post by sanders on Aug 9, 2024 7:50:32 GMT
Quite apart from the thread going off topic, I hardly know where to start with some of those. I will just make two confident predictions; Labour will not be gaining Norland in K&C, and the Tories will not be gaining North Acton. I don’t think Labour will gaining seats in Sutton either. Hackbridge might hold but that’s it. Or the Greens getting 21 in Hackney. I say 8 at best. 3/3 in Hackney Downs? 2/2 in Dalston? 3/3 in Clissold? Or one each in Clissold, De Beauvoir, and Stoke Newington? |
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Post by londonseal80 on Aug 9, 2024 8:42:46 GMT
I don’t think Labour will gaining seats in Sutton either. Hackbridge might hold but that’s it. Or the Greens getting 21 in Hackney. I say 8 at best. 3/3 in Hackney Downs? 2/2 in Dalston? 3/3 in Clissold? Or one each in Clissold, De Beauvoir, and Stoke Newington? The latter. With regards to K&C I go with Con 27 Lab 16 LD 7 Lab gain from Con - 2 x Holland, 1 x Chelsea River LD gain from Con - the remaining seat in Earls Court, 2 x Courtfield, 2 x Pembridge. |
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Post by redtony on Aug 10, 2024 20:21:51 GMT
Holland borders Addison in Hammersmith and Fulham
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batman
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Post by batman on Aug 10, 2024 21:01:39 GMT
not entirely surprising since it includes the eastern end of Addison Gardens. The 2 wards used to have very dissimilar characters, but that part of Holland ward seems to me to have become a little more similar in character to Addison ward than it used to be.
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Post by redtony on Aug 11, 2024 20:15:06 GMT
indeed Olga Gray
of the woolw2ich arsenal spy case in 1938 lived in Holland
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Post by sanders on Aug 11, 2024 20:32:08 GMT
Labour wins Holland supporting free movement. Holland is very pro-EU of course. Chelsea Riverside? Not entirely unlike Pimlico. Norland - nor way Labour wins that? I don't agree with that assessment. Huge Green vote to squeeze there.
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batman
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Post by batman on Aug 14, 2024 19:09:48 GMT
A majority of this constituency has now been represented by a Coleman twice with a 19-year gap, but the 2 men are unrelated. Iain Coleman (Hammersmith & Fulham, Lab, 1997-2005) is still with us but does not, as I understand it, always enjoy the best of health following a stroke a number of years ago. His wife Dame Sally Powell remains a very prominent figure within the Labour Party & intends to stand for its National Constitutional Committee this year. Iain made a rather brave post-stroke comeback to the local council, of which he had previously been Leader (like Andy Slaughter and, before him, Gordon Prentice) but has now retired from council service. Ben Coleman's official portrait makes him look quite a bit more dishevelled than he looks in real life - I've met him several times helping with his past campaign to win Fulham Broadway ward (as it then was) from the Tories on the council.
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Post by edgbaston on Aug 14, 2024 19:20:02 GMT
Loads of MPs look really ugly in their official portraits when they are not. They always use really harsh lighting on an harsh backdrop and seem to do no grooming.
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spqr
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Post by spqr on Aug 14, 2024 19:23:31 GMT
Loads of MPs look really ugly in their official portraits when they are not. They always use really harsh lighting on an harsh backdrop and seem to do no grooming. The 2017 portraits were the worst - the stark lighting ensured that virtually all of the subjects resembled pale slabs of meat in an abattoir. This year's don't seem nearly so bad. |
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Post by heslingtonian on Aug 14, 2024 19:38:21 GMT
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