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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 20, 2024 21:38:12 GMT
He is correct except in saying that the swing was lower than expected. I think it was widely trailed here that the swing in this seat would be well below the national average, precisely beacuse of the inelascitiy he describes, but also because much of the antiTory swing had already occurred in 2017/19. It was clear that this was a safe seat on the old boundaries but that the expansion into more Labour voting territory in Fulham made it winnable in landslide conditions and that is (just) what happened.
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birkinabe
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winning here
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Post by birkinabe on Jul 21, 2024 8:44:00 GMT
The only thing that made me confident that this seat would be a LAB gain was seeing the effect boundary changes had on how this seat voted in the 2022 local elections.
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Post by redtony on Jul 21, 2024 20:17:35 GMT
agreed the result of the boundary review putting Fulham Reach and West Ken Wards into the constituency convinced Hammersmith and Fulham Labour they had a chance of winning it and they threw everything in to the campaign from then on
Labour locally are going to start the campaign in September to hold the seat at the next election,
The 2026 council elections will be crucial Labour will campaign to win Munster and Town Wards for the first time
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Jul 31, 2024 10:27:59 GMT
I hadn’t really clocked that the boundary changes were decisive here. On the same swing from the 2019 result on the old boundaries, Hands would have held by about 4,000
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swanarcadian
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Post by swanarcadian on Jul 31, 2024 10:31:04 GMT
Has anyone calculated how the 1997-2010 Kensington & Chelsea would have voted please?
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 31, 2024 12:28:24 GMT
Has anyone calculated how the 1997-2010 Kensington & Chelsea would have voted please? Con 15,607 45.0% Lab 10,477 30.2% LD 2,955 8.5% Ref 2,412 7.0% Grn 1,999 5.8% |
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
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Post by Sibboleth on Jul 31, 2024 12:30:17 GMT
Something like that seems about right. Still a monstrously safe seat (if we can still use the term 'safe seat' in the old sense). All of this is an interesting example of how important boundaries are in an FPTP system.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jul 31, 2024 13:12:38 GMT
The boundary arrangement that was used in 2024 was one the Conservatives had put forward at the consultation stage, because they thought both Chelsea and Fulham, and Cities of London and Westminster would be safe enough, but it might be able to provide some Conservative votes to make Kensington and Bayswater competitive. Unfortunately it ended up sharing the Conservative votes a little too evenly and the Conservative vote fell much further than expected, so instead of two seats and a chance of a third, they got none.
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swanarcadian
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Post by swanarcadian on Jul 31, 2024 16:39:17 GMT
Has anyone calculated how the 1997-2010 Kensington & Chelsea would have voted please? Con 15,607 45.0% Lab 10,477 30.2% LD 2,955 8.5% Ref 2,412 7.0% Grn 1,999 5.8% Thank you for that Pete. It was sad to see K & C abolished in 2010, even though the boundary changes made practical sense and helped the Conservatives. It was described in an old Almanac edition as a Tory paradise and the local party always went for high profile characters to represent it. It just had something indefinably special, even romantic about the nature of its Toryism, and it wasn’t even the party’s safest seat. It was just “the place”. |
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Post by edgbaston on Jul 31, 2024 16:55:55 GMT
Con 15,607 45.0% Lab 10,477 30.2% LD 2,955 8.5% Ref 2,412 7.0% Grn 1,999 5.8% Thank you for that Pete. It was sad to see K & S abolished in 2010, even though the boundary changes made practical sense and helped the Conservatives. It was described in an old Almanac edition as a Tory paradise and the local party always went for high profile characters to represent it. It just had something indefinably special, even romantic about the nature of its Toryism, and it wasn’t even the party’s safest seat. It was just “the place”. Are you the Dowager Countess of Grantham |
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swanarcadian
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Post by swanarcadian on Jul 31, 2024 17:05:10 GMT
Thank you for that Pete. It was sad to see K & S abolished in 2010, even though the boundary changes made practical sense and helped the Conservatives. It was described in an old Almanac edition as a Tory paradise and the local party always went for high profile characters to represent it. It just had something indefinably special, even romantic about the nature of its Toryism, and it wasn’t even the party’s safest seat. It was just “the place”. Are you the Dowager Countess of Grantham No, it’s a Tory thing. You wouldn’t understand. Have you read Alan Clark’s diaries? ;-) |
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Post by finsobruce on Jul 31, 2024 17:06:12 GMT
Are you the Dowager Countess of Grantham No, it’s a Tory thing. You wouldn’t understand. Have you read Alan Clark’s diaries? ;-)And if you haven't why on earth not? |
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Post by batman on Jul 31, 2024 19:11:47 GMT
Con 15,607 45.0% Lab 10,477 30.2% LD 2,955 8.5% Ref 2,412 7.0% Grn 1,999 5.8% Thank you for that Pete. It was sad to see K & S abolished in 2010, even though the boundary changes made practical sense and helped the Conservatives. It was described in an old Almanac edition as a Tory paradise and the local party always went for high profile characters to represent it. It just had something indefinably special, even romantic about the nature of its Toryism, and it wasn’t even the party’s safest seat. It was just “the place”. that's the purplest prose I've seen here for a while |
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Post by elinorhelyn on Jul 31, 2024 19:34:13 GMT
It took a great heave for C&F to flip bit I think its one of those seats where baring boundary changes once it flips its gone until the Tories win a 170 maj of their own.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 31, 2024 20:06:39 GMT
It took a great heave for C&F to flip bit I think its one of those seats where baring boundary changes once it flips its gone until the Tories win a 170 maj of their own. Why do you think that? The closeness of the result indicates the Conservative vote here is still pretty solid. I could see the Cities being hard to win back but even there would hardly require a landslide |
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Post by elinorhelyn on Jul 31, 2024 20:12:28 GMT
It took a great heave for C&F to flip bit I think its one of those seats where baring boundary changes once it flips its gone until the Tories win a 170 maj of their own. Why do you think that? The closeness of the result indicates the Conservative vote here is still pretty solid. I could see the Cities being hard to win back but even there would hardly require a landslide Yes this was ground zero for Labour's VAT on private schools policy backlash which won't be the case next time. Coleman will have time now to bed himself in I think and the modern Conservative Party just doesn't speak to the so called solid Conservative voters that live in C&F and I don't see that changing anytime soon |
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Post by redtony on Jul 31, 2024 20:36:20 GMT
in 2010 elections, council and general were held on the same day, labour only won one seat in C&F on the current boundaries that was 1 out of the 3 in West Ken ward in 2022 Labour won 5 wards in Fulham to the Tories 4
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Post by batman on Jul 31, 2024 20:42:48 GMT
I think the Tories will still be strongly in contention here for the foreseeable future. Given the constituency's demography I can't see a wholesale collapse as we have seen in some less superwealthy London seats. This will not be a straightforward Labour hold, although I think Ben Coleman has it in him to build up a useful first-time incumbency factor.
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Post by No Offence Alan on Jul 31, 2024 21:14:27 GMT
I think the Tories will still be strongly in contention here for the foreseeable future. Given the constituency's demography I can't see a wholesale collapse as we have seen in some less superwealthy London seats. This will not be a straightforward Labour hold, although I think Ben Coleman has it in him to build up a useful first-time incumbency factor. Yes, it is not like the outer London boroughs where Tory votes might leak to Reform. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 31, 2024 21:22:59 GMT
Why do you think that? The closeness of the result indicates the Conservative vote here is still pretty solid. I could see the Cities being hard to win back but even there would hardly require a landslide Yes this was ground zero for Labour's VAT on private schools policy backlash which won't be the case next time. Coleman will have time now to bed himself in I think and the modern Conservative Party just doesn't speak to the so called solid Conservative voters that live in C&F and I don't see that changing anytime soon I dare say there may be other taxes to alienate some of the well off (but not super rich) residents. I don't know why they are 'so called' solid Conservative voters here. They won just short of 40% of the vote in a year when they won 24% nationally. They got a lower numerical and percentage vote in six of the nine seats in London they won. It remains to be seen what direction the Conservative party move in now. I suspect it may not finish up as the party either of us would want. |
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