Chelsea and Fulham

[stb12]

Chelsea and Fulham

[markgoodair]

Reform have selected Rob Ellis as their PPC.

[Pete Whitehead]

Notional results since 1945. The 2019 result is the 'official' (Thrasher & Rallings) notional - the others are my own work.

	Con	Lab	Lib	Ind
1945	44.2%	51.3%	3.4%
1950	49.3%	43.9%	6.4%
1951	36.1%	46.4%	1.2%	16.3%
1955	54.1%	45.9%
1959	52.8%	42.3%	4.9%
1964	48.6%	45.1%	6.2%
1966	45.4%	47.3%	5.7%

	Con	Lab	Lib/LD	NF/BNP
1970	51.1%	44.5%	3.1%
1974	44.6%	38.1%	15.5%	1.2%
1974	43.4%	42.1%	12.7%	1.2%
1979	52.0%	36.3%	10.4%	1.1%
1983	50.4%	28.5%	19.9%
1987	54.3%	32.0%	12.3%
1992	55.7%	32.9%	9.9%

	Con	Lab	LD	Green	Ref/UKIP/ BXP
1997	44.4%	41.6%	9.6%		1.8%
2001	45.6%	37.5%	12.2%	3.4%	1.0%
2005	51.0%	30.1%	13.8%	3.9%	1.1%
2010	57.5%	22.2%	15.7%	1.6%	1.1%
2015	59.7%	26.7%	5.0%	3.7%	4.8%
2017	49.0%	38.1%	9.8%	1.8%	1.2%
2019	45.5%	29.1%	23.8%	0.4%	0.3%

1951 - there was no Conservative candidate in Fulham West but the Independent candidate (W.J. Brown, former Rugby MP) was endorsed by the Conservatives.  There was a case therefore for including his totals in the Conservative column, but I wasn't persuaded by it.  Obviously if the votes were combined Labour would not have been ahead that year.

[redtony]

this is proving to be a very active contest be and the tory Greg Hands Who has been the MP for 20 years Labour are throwing everything in to it and Greg is defending it like hell

[Davıd Boothroyd]

SOPN www.lbhf.gov.uk/sites/default/files/2024-06/Statement-of-Persons-Nominated-Chelsea-and-Fulham-final-web.pdf

BAQUICHE, Blaise Maxime Pascal - Liberal Democrats
COLEMAN, Ben - Labour Party
CROCKER, Mona - Green Party
GOODWIN, Anthony - Reform UK
HANDS, Greg - The Conservative Party Candidate
PATWARY, Sabi - Workers Party
POULDEN, David Peter - Heritage Party – Freedom. Family. Nation.

[Deleted]

LAB 40%
CON 40%
LD 14%
GRN 4%
OTH 2%

VAT on private school fees make the a bit harder for Labour, but the Lib Dems doing well in the Chelsea 'blue wall' will help Labour get over the top.

[redtony]

Is this a poll where does this come from

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Jun 22, 2024 20:44:32 GMT redtony said:

Is this a poll where does this come from

You're not familiar with @weld then?

[rcronald]

Jun 22, 2024 20:44:32 GMT redtony said:

Is this a poll where does this come from

his arse 😊

[batman]

Actually this is probably one of his less bad efforts. I don't expect an easy Labour win here. But I do expect a Labour win of some kind. He is right that some of the Tory vote is very obstinate, but not all of it is. And probably an outright majority of those who voted for Nicola Horlick last time will go Labour this time.

[Deleted]

"Dear minister, I am afraid there are no votes left"

[redtony]

This is my constituency have not received anything from Greg Hands for two weeks two leaflets from Ben Coleman in the last few days nothing from the Lib Dems All year

[Deleted]

Jun 23, 2024 21:27:22 GMT redtony said:

This is my constituency have not received anything from Greg Hands for two weeks two leaflets from Ben Coleman in the last few days nothing from the Lib Dems All year

So not all Hands on deck then?

[Dalek Prime]

Jun 23, 2024 21:27:22 GMT redtony said:

This is my constituency have not received anything from Greg Hands for two weeks two leaflets from Ben Coleman in the last few days nothing from the Lib Dems All year

Certainly stories like this give credence to the rumours of lack of cash and people on the ground as well of course the 20000 majority defence strategy of Rishie.

[redtony]

Sky news said Rishi was in Chelsea all day today He has a home in Kensington

[Ports]

Jun 24, 2024 20:55:25 GMT redtony said:

Sky news said Rishi was in Chelsea all day today He has a home in Kensington

Apart from when he was in Edinburgh this morning...

[Deleted]

Jun 22, 2024 8:54:47 GMT @weld said:

LAB 40%
CON 40%
LD 14%
GRN 4%
OTH 2%

VAT on private school fees make the a bit harder for Labour, but the Lib Dems doing well in the Chelsea 'blue wall' will help Labour get over the top.

I was pretty much bang on - Labour by under 200 votes. Well done to posters who worked this seat. 

[greenhert]

That said, the swing was lower than average and lower than expected which reflects the inelasticity of voters in wealthy seats like this one. On previous boundaries Greg Hands would have held it- the super-rich Chelsea part of this constituency is unaffected and unmoved by events like the cost of living crisis, the long term effects of the pandemic etc.

[redtony]

but there is a working class in Fulham and in Chelsea Riverside

[batman]

yes there is, in fact there are some council flats even in the poshest wards (not sure if Redcliffe has any, but certainly all the others do), but greenhert's basic point is correct; elements of the Tory vote here are very obstinate especially amongst the superwealthiest residents.